2024 Market Outlook

First I like to say that these views are my own and not investment advice. Here is my 2024 Market Outlook across three pivotal areas: Market, Political, and Economic Fronts.

Like everyone else, I am taking out my crystal ball, and flipping over the tarot cards.

Markets:

Cutting to the chase, my bullish sentiment for owning stocks remains unyielding during this remarkable early bull market. Celebrating its first anniversary in October, the market's resilience has been staggering. Any early 2024 weakness is viewed as a strategic entry point, given the historical performance. Owning stocks is something you should do during a bull market… While this years extension might not mirror the exceptional strength of 2023, there's a steadfast belief in the market's enduring nature, keeping both bulls and bears engaged. The scepticism prevailing in the market is not a hurdle but an opportunity, echoing Sir John Templeton's wisdom that "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism."

I expect Large Cap Growth to still lead the way. Simply that historically what leads the first two years of a new bull markets has a tendency to be what was beat up the most during the last bear market. As the year unfolds, an exciting shift towards small and mid-cap stocks, alongside a resurgence in value stocks, is anticipated. But Both should generate good returns over the bull market cycle.

Election Year Optimism or Concern:

The status of 2024 as a Presidential election year isn't a cause for concern but a potential accelerant for positive market dynamics. Historical data is a testament, revealing that the third and fourth years of a presidential cycle often usher in robust S&P 500 returns. Joe Biden's third year adds to the impressive track record.

Economic Front Prosperity:

The most anticipated recession was 2023…. Funny enough the economy accelerated despite the “headwinds”. 2024 we can Anticipate a flourishing economic landscape, guided by moderate growth that plays a pivotal role in normalizing inflation, favoring growth stocks over value. The statistics reinforce this positive outlook. As the year progresses, expected rate cuts to act as a catalyst for a surge in value stock leadership, accompanied by smaller and mid-cap stocks delivering substantial gains. The myth that rate cuts are indispensable for stock market growth was soundly debunked in 2023, showcasing the market's resilience and its ability to thrive independently of conventional expectations.

In essence, the bullish outlook for 2024 is fortified by compelling statistics, historical patterns, and robust economic factors, all pointing towards a continued and promising upward trajectory.

More updates to come throughout the year.

Thanks for reading

Mate Svorinic