2024 Longevity Advent Calendar Days 16-20

Day 16: Canadian Mortality Improvement

New information came out this year on Canadian mortality improvement from the Canadian Institute of Actuaries l Institut canadien des actuaires

The analysis is thorough and nuanced, but an overall target is provided.

"The recommended long-term mortality improvement rate assumption for ages 20 to 40 years is 1.0%."

Maybe now is a good time to consider a northern migration.

Day 17: 100 Years of the American Heart Association

It has been fun to follow all the blasts and facts from the AHA this year. While meaningful change has occured in the past 100 years, there is still plenty of room to go as Heart issues top the charts for cause of death.

Day 18: Maternal Mortality

While many US citizens will enjoy life expectancies into their 80's a trouble area has been maternal mortality. The SOA published new research this year, diving into the literature on the topic and why the US may differ from other countries.

There are several interesting observations including:

• The role of socio econmoic status
• The change in cause of death over time.
• The change in motherhood trends over time.

Day 19: Sam Altman and RetroBiosciences

While some billionaires are launching rockets, other wealthy individuals are pouring cash into longevity. Sam Altman, who poured gasoline and lit a match on the world of AI with ChatGPT, is one of them. In 2023 he threw $180 million into a startup called Retro Biosciences that has a goal to add 10 years to the human lifespan.

You can watch a documentary about the company on YouTube.

In 2024, they partnered with a Multiply Labs, a robotics company to provide a way to automate and scale assembly of their therapeutics.

Day 20: Catastrophic Risk

Another insightful piece of content from the SOA regards the growing impact of catastrophic events (floods, pandemics, wars, etc) on mortality.

Sep 1 is admitting that catastrophic events can impair mortality outcomes.

Step 2 is figuring out how to model them.

These events are tricky to model due to their rarity, so there are many considerations in developing ways to understand the potential impacts. Here are the takeaways

1. As modeling advances, it will be good for industry model users to understand the services that model builders can provide. This can be accomplished by having a good dialogue between Cat modelers and model users.
2. Use of models varies within a life and health insurer context and work can be influenced by a catastrophe model for a block of business.
3. Management at a life and health insurance company may have a risk appetite they want to manage to, and catastrophe models can incorporate that.
4. To construct better models, more scenario analysis should be done, including exploring scenarios even not considered plausible. Giving serious consideration that scenarios can happen is good to do. To help with acceptance that things that we haven’t considered could occur, some ways to get the message across include looking at the full spectrum of what can occur.
5. Catastrophe modeling can be implemented into company books of business in aspects such as pricing, business management, and internal hedging (life insurance/annuity balance). 6. Some positive opportunities have evolved from catastrophes and catastrophe models can help users understand these and prepare for opportunities.