2024 LOK SABHA ELECTION PREDICTION

Modi is expected to come back to power for the third time! The BJP and NDA are anticipated to marginally improve on their 2019 tally.

Unlike in 2019, this time the BJP did not employ the polarisation strategy or the development card. They were aware that the INDIA alliance could pose a challenge, and there was a risk of voter apathy. They needed to keep their voters engaged and target the fence-sitters. They used a multi-pronged strategy to counter the opposition challenge, successfully trapping the opposition in the narrative they created..

AAB KI BAAR 400 PAAR (‘this time surpassing 400)

This slogan was actively used by Modi and NDA alliance partners during campaigns at political rallies as well as on social media. When the opposition started ridiculing this number, Modi considered it an endorsement of their return to power. It was a psychological ploy to make voters believe that the BJP was coming back to power. The question was not ‘Will Modi win?’, but rather ‘What will be the winning margin?’

As the election phases progressed, the narrative shifted to the BJP winning at least 370 seats – a number endorsing the abrogation of Article 370.

THE HINDUTVA CARD

The Ram Mandir opening was a game changer – ‘JAI SHREE RAM’ greetings went viral across the country. This likely converted many fence-sitters and devout Hindus to vote for Modi. In closed-door discussions, people expressed concerns about the rising Muslim population and the alleged appeasement by some political parties. The temple opening is seen as a transition of BHARAT to a Hindutva state – all without changing the constitution.

?THE GLOBAL CARD

The G20 event extravaganza in India showcased the country's rising global trajectory. World leaders and global corporations are queuing up to do business with India. With a median age of 28.7 years, India is now considered one of the fastest-growing emerging economies in the world, as corroborated by many rating agencies. India’s focus on green energy, science and technology, and infrastructure projects has positioned it to become the third-largest economy in the world by 2027.

Modi has developed a warm and cordial relationship with Muslim nations and prioritized 'India' by buying cheap oil from Russia, despite pressure from Western countries. India's rising global clout is expected to positively influence voters.

THE MONEY GAME

After coming to power in 2014, Modi has expanded India's welfare programmes, targeting women and farmers in particular. This includes providing cheap cooking gas, free grain, houses, toilets, piped water, electricity, free healthcare, and bank accounts. Welfare has been crucial to supporting the weaker sections of the population, especially as the economy, although robustly growing, did not generate many jobs. The highly centralized welfare implementation has established a direct link between the prime minister and welfare beneficiaries.

Modi has also openly encouraged people to buy Indian PSU stocks. The value of as many as 14 PSU stocks has risen by more than 200 per cent in the election year, while about 40 of them have turned multibaggers with at least a 100 per cent rise. The total number of demat accounts now stands at 15.1 crores, with new account additions surging at 31 lakhs per month. The PSU stock gains have directly benefited retail investors, and the Modi government has cleverly enriched them without any investment from their end.

?WHERE THE OPPOSITION LOST OUT?

The INDIA alliance failed to be seen as an alternative to the Modi government. If the opposition needs to win the elections, they need to have a strategy to be united a few years in advance and start working at the grassroot level first. Have a UK model in place along with a shadow government. That way the opposition will seem to be more credible.

While the BJP is losing ground in Maharashtra and Karnataka, this is offset by gains in Odisha (15 seats) and West Bengal (24 seats). They will make minor inroads in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In Andra Pradesh, whichever party comes to power, BJP will be able to get their support.

The prediction model considers previous voting trends, close-margin seats, current voter perceptions, candidate profiles, and social media conversations. Data is compiled at each constituency level.

With MODI/NDA expected to return to power without significant losses, the stock markets are likely to rise. PSU’s, banking, and infrastructure stocks will be in the limelight in the coming months before the full budget is presented in June/July.