2024 Lok Sabha Election Outlook

• As individuals we all love to predict and foresee things in the best possible way, so do i. Here i would loke to bring my perspective about the 2024 election outlook. The views are very personal and would encourage all of you to take a moment to evaluate and analyze by your own. I am not a political thinker but as a responsible citizen i would like to draw some conclusion using some simple statistical frameworks'.
• The analysis is done based on the 2019 general election data available in the public domain. I have limited the discussion in terms of the the projected number of seats BJP is expected to take over and not considered the remaining seat distribution.
• The framework is based on the following key parameters including

1.public perception 2. socio-economic indications 3. societal inequality

4.Overall development 5. unemployment and inequality

6. religious and political perceptions

7. National and regional issue's

• Each of the above listed factors holds a varying weightage in accordance with the geographical and overall outlook of the state and its underlying general perception can accelerate or retard the momentum. But for a complex state like India its hard to boil down to the last resource due to the varying political landscape. Even though religious and strong political stigma takes the center stage while the demanding issues like inequality, unemployment , sustainable development and climate change takes the back stage.
• Coming to the critical part of election majority and seat distribution metrics, its no surprise that BJP shall continue in power no matter what their seat distribution looks like. BJP is most likely to improve from their earlier majority of 303 to some where between 315 to 325 in this time. Which translates to almost a 5% spike in the overall seat distribution. With a strong foundation of development and rising global acceptance of "Developed India by 2047" with an improved economic outlook and general perception, BJP is well positioned at its sweet spot to reap this advantage. The above discussed case is a quartile assessment not the best possible scenario that can even extend to NDA making it to cross 360.

"I would really encourage all of you to look at this analysis with your best case interpretations as well. And comment your thoughts about it. Lets take this opportunity to learn and explore more about electoral analysis together"