2024 Global Labor Market Challenges: Rising Unemployment and Inequality
According to International Labour Organization (ILO).
Joblessness and the jobs gap have gotten better since the peak of the pandemic, but a new report from the International Labour Organization (ILO) says global unemployment might increase in 2024. The ILO's World Employment and Social Outlook report predicts the global unemployment rate will go up to 5.2% from 5.1% in 2023, with 2 million more people looking for jobs.
Richard Samans, the director of ILO's research department, says this slight decline in how well the job market is doing is partly because global economic growth is slowing down. But beyond these numbers, there are worries about fragility in the job market outlook, and global unemployment is expected to get worse.
The report also points out differences between higher and lower-income countries. In 2023, high-income countries had an 8.2% jobs gap rate, while low-income countries had a much higher rate of 20.5%. Similarly, the unemployment rate in high-income countries was 4.5%, compared to 5.7% in low-income countries. These differences raise concerns about the uneven recovery of the global workforce.
Persisting Working Poverty
The report expects working poverty to continue. Even though the number of workers living in extreme poverty went down after 2020, about 1 million workers fell back into extreme poverty in 2023. Also, the number of workers in moderate poverty increased by 8.4 million in 2023.
Warning about Income Inequality
The report also warns about income inequality getting wider and the negative impact of real disposable income going down on the overall demand for goods and economic recovery. Informal work is expected to stay at around 58% of the global workforce in 2024.
Labor Market Imbalances
The report points out significant imbalances in the labor market. While there has been improvement in joblessness and the jobs gap, there are still notable differences between higher and lower-income countries. In 2023, high-income countries had an 8.2% jobs gap rate, while low-income countries faced a much higher 20.5% rate. Similarly, the unemployment rate in high-income countries was 4.5%, compared to 5.7% in low-income countries. These disparities raise concerns about the global workforce's uneven recovery.
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Sluggish Productivity Growth:
The report also talks about a slowdown in productivity growth after a short boost post-pandemic. Even with better technology and more investment, productivity growth has gone back to low levels seen in the previous decade. A significant part of the investment has gone to less productive sectors like services and construction. The report also mentions obstacles like skills shortages and the dominance of big digital companies, especially in developing countries and sectors with mostly low-productivity businesses. This slow productivity growth makes it harder to achieve steady economic recovery.
Uncertain Labor Market Future
The ILO report shows uncertainties in the future of the labor market. Even though there's been a bit of improvement, the fragility in job market conditions is worrying. It's predicted that an extra 2 million workers will be looking for jobs in 2024, making the global unemployment rate go up from 5.1% in 2023 to 5.2%. These challenges are not just temporary recovery problems but might be long-term issues that need quick and effective actions for lasting improvements in people's lives and the overall economic recovery.
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8 个月The report World Employment and Social Outlook Trends: 2024