2024 Election Predictions

The United States will elect a new president and legislative class in less than three weeks. This week’s post focuses on the upcoming election. Before I continue, these predictions do not reflect how or who I will vote for.??

Presidential Race:?

I anticipate the electoral race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris will?be close, but I believe that Trump will ultimately win. Trump’s victory will be based on his previous record as President and his making fewer mistakes than the Vice President.?

Because the former president has a record, people know what they get from Trump. Vice President Harris, on the other hand,?is still an unknown commodity.?

In terms of making mistakes, I wrote the following after President Biden announced that he was dropping out of the race,?

“...Vice President Harris is running an incumbent Presidential campaign in less than four months…However, the Vice President is still somewhat inexperienced in national politics compared to her previous party nominees…. Her challenge is to prove to not only her fellow Democrats but also to Independents that she is up to the challenge of being President. She will argue that it is essential to continue with the Biden Administration’s policies even though most Americans believe that the country is going in the wrong direction. It is one thing to make this argument in a nomination process, which takes time. But to do it in less than four months, she would need to be perfect in her appearances, which is difficult because every campaign has hiccups.”

In terms of mistakes, two mistakes stand out by Trump. The first example of Trump’s mistake was the Trump campaign attacking her by calling her a “DEI (Diversity Equity and Inclusion)” or a “diversity hire” Vice President. Although they shifted to policy, those attacks were a mistake because they removed the focus on policy.

The second example is his debate performance with the Vice President. His attempt to get under the Vice President’s skin backfired, and instead, the Vice President got under the former President’s skin. Since the debate, the focus has returned to the contrast of policies.

After a successful debate with the former President, her campaign has plateaued.?Recently, Democrats have expressed concerns about this. For instance, this article on CNN.com states, “But just weeks shy – and after multiple blitzes to battleground states and a debate that wiped away memories of Biden’s unraveling – the needle has barely moved, if at all.” This is not good, especially since her opponent is the former president.

Additionally, there has been criticism of her recent television appearances. Her recent television interviews and campaign stops have yet to generate new enthusiasm. One political consultant quoted in The Hill said, “She is still fine-tuning her message 28 days out, and I’m sorry, we are in the ‘make the sale’ phase of the campaign now, we’re not still tweaking the message.”? Her recent decision to skip the Economic Club of Chicago’s event reinforces the perception that she is still fine-tuning when she should be closing. If Harris loses the election, the fact that she did not have enough time may explain why.

Congressional races:?

Currently, the Senate makeup is 48 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 3 Independent or No Party Affiliation. The Democrats have the majority of the Senate due to three Senators who are not party-affiliated—these three Senators caucus with the Democrats. This election cycle has 34 seats. Out of those 34 seats, 23 are held by Democrats or are open seats. The Democrats are expected to lose the majority due to two seats: Montana and West Virginia. Both states are Republican, and the winners of both Senate races are expected to be Republicans. The odds of the Democrats flipping a Republican Senate seat this election cycle are tough.

The House will be different. The Republicans have a slim majority: 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats. There are also three vacancies. In the past two years, the word “chaos” best describes Republican leadership. This past legislative session will be remembered for the Republicans’ inability to govern itself. Former House Speaker McCarthy’s election and removal, plus the multiple votes for a new speaker, reflects poorly on House Republicans. This?and their failure to address pressing issues and pass meaningful legislation will allow Democrats to take over the House.

If Democrats win the majority, the challenge is not to repeat the mistake of trying to impeach the President. If the focus is on impeaching the President and not on addressing the issues, they will repeat the same mistake that the GOP made. ?

There is a saying in politics that goes, two weeks is an eternity. Although we are less than three weeks away, things can still change. There may be another world crisis, hurricane, or other outside event that could cause a reassessment of these races. But if world events remain constant, then expect a long election night at the Presidential level because of the closeness of these races. But at least we will know who will control the legislative branch.

From a policy standpoint, Latin American governments should not be surprised. They are familiar with both the former administration and the current administration. What has changed is that the terrain in Latin America has changed and the U.S. policymakers need to adapt and reassess. ?