Will 2024 be the Beginning of The Anthropocene Epoch?

Scientists are considering the designation of a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, due to the profound impact of human activities on the Earth's systems. This consideration is driven by the need for a unique reference point to signify the onset of this new epoch, a role that Crawford Lake in Canada might fulfill. The sediment layers at the bottom of Crawford Lake show a notable increase in the concentration of plutonium particles around the year 1950, which serves as a clear indication of human impact and provides evidence of the Anthropocene era. This site is proposed as the Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the Anthropocene due to these findings.[1]

The sediment core from Crawford Lake reveals human-made markers such as artificial radionuclides, combustion particles, changed biotic populations, and organic pollutants, which not only demonstrate the longevity and scale of human-caused planetary changes but also reflect socio-economic dynamics and historical events. The history recorded in these sediment layers covers centuries, including the impact of small-scale agriculture by Indigenous communities, European colonial activities, and significant changes during the mid-20th century coinciding with the Great Acceleration of industrial and socio-economic activities.

The Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) has recommended Crawford Lake as the official ‘Golden Spike’ for the Anthropocene, a decision that still requires further voting within the stratigraphic professional community. If ratified, this would mark the official recognition of the Anthropocene, acknowledging the significant alterations to the Earth system caused by human activities, which have brought an end to the relatively stable conditions of the Holocene and marked the beginning of a new Earth epoch.

Geological Timeline of Earth

Geologic time is a vast interval representing Earth's history, formally beginning with the Archean Eon (4.0 to 2.5 billion years ago) and including the modern extension back to the Hadean Eon, starting around 4.6 billion years ago with Earth's formation. This period is documented in the planet's rock strata. The geologic time scale serves as a calendar for Earth's history, organizing time into eons, eras, periods, epochs, and ages in descending order of duration. This scale is primarily based on stratigraphy, the study of rock layers, and heavily relies on the fossil record. The emergence and extinction of widespread species within these rocks play a crucial role in defining the boundaries of these geologic time units, allowing a detailed and chronological classification of Earth's ancient past.

Beginning with the geological eras, one can trace the path from the ancient Precambrian period, through the eventful ages of the Palaeozoic, and Mesozoic, and into the Cenozoic Era, the latter marked by significant climatic and ecological changes. The Cenozoic Era subdivided into the Paleogene, Neogene, and Quaternary periods, witnessed the evolution of diverse life forms and dramatic environmental shifts. (Figure 1)

Parallel to these vast geological epochs, human civilization has undergone its transformative journey, particularly in terms of energy consumption. Since the onset of the Industrial Revolution, there has been a seismic shift from reliance on traditional biomass to fossil fuels, significantly altering the global energy landscape. This transition is documented in the data provided by the Energy Institute offering insights into energy trends from 1800 - 2020. I have created a chart to visualize the data (Figure 2). The plot shows clearly that the surge in energy consumption has been near-constant, punctuated only by brief declines during economic crises or global events like the COVID-19 pandemic. This increase in energy use has been accompanied by rising greenhouse gas emissions, predominantly from fossil fuels, posing grave concerns for the planet's future. The smoothed consumption line (red dotted line) shows that the period around 1950 shows an “elbow” indicative of a change in scale. That may be considered the start of the end of the Holocene.

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The Holocene or The Rise of Humans

The Holocene, from the Greek “Entirely New”, until now also referred to as the “Anthropocene” or "Age of Humans," is a period that has been pivotal in the development and spread of Homo sapiens across the globe. This epoch has encompassed all recorded human history, including the emergence and decline of numerous civilizations. Throughout the Holocene, humanity has exerted a profound influence on the environment, with our species altering the planet at an unprecedented rate and scale. This human impact is evident in the ongoing phenomena of global warming, characterized by a significant, continuing rise in mean global temperatures largely attributed to human activities. Additionally, habitat destruction, pollution, and other anthropogenic factors are driving a mass extinction of plant and animal species, with projections suggesting that 20% of all species could become extinct within the next quarter-century.

The Holocene has been marked by significant advancements in human knowledge and technology. These developments are not only helping us comprehend the changes occurring around us but are also instrumental in predicting their consequences and devising strategies to mitigate potential damages to the Earth and human societies. In this context, palaeontologists play a crucial role, contributing to the broader effort to understand global change. They utilize fossils to glean insights into past climates and environments, thereby enhancing our understanding of how impending environmental changes will affect life on Earth. This comprehensive approach underscores the duality of the Holocene as a time of both profound human impact on the planet and remarkable progress in our ability to understand and respond to these changes.

The Holocene is generally divided into three parts (Figure 3): the Greenlandian Age, marked by the NGRIP2 ice core; the Northgrippian Age, identified by the NGRIP1 ice core; and the current Meghalayan Age, recorded in a speleothem from a cave in Meghalaya, India. The Holocene, spanning 11,700 years, is notable for lacking prolonged climate changes but includes two significant climatic events at 8.2 thousand years ago (ka) and 4.2 ka. These subdivisions and events reflect the Holocene's distinct climatic stages.

The Anthropocene Epoch – Redefining the Accelerated Impact of Humans

Human energy consumption has dramatically increased over time, particularly in the modern era due to the combustion of fossil fuels. During the Greenlandian Age (11.7 to 8.2 ky), the consumption was about 0.12 zetajoules (ZJ), with a per capita use of around 6.2 gigajoules per year (GJ/y). This increased to 0.34 ZJ in the Northgrippian Age (8.2 to 4.3 ky) and surged to 14.2 ZJ in the Meghalayan Age (4.3 ky to ~1950 CE), with per capita usage averaging 8.3 GJ/y. In the Pre-Industrial period (1670–1850 CE), consumption was 2.9 ZJ, and it rose to 4.9 ZJ during the Industrial period (1850–1950 CE), accounting for 35% of the total energy used in the Meghalayan Age. The most significant jump has been since 1950 CE, with an average per capita consumption of 61 GJ/y and a total consumption exceeding 22 ZJ, surpassing the total energy used during the entire Holocene (~14.6 ZJ). [2]

Human activities have significantly altered the Earth's surface in various ways, reshaping our planet's landscapes and ecosystems. The expansion of urban areas, driven by the need for housing, infrastructure, and industrial development, has transformed natural habitats. Cities, with their buildings, roads, and other structures, create microclimates and contribute to phenomena like the heat island effect. Intensive agriculture, necessary to feed the growing global population, has led to changes in land use, soil degradation, water depletion, and biodiversity loss. The use of fertilizers and pesticides in farming has further impacted soil and water quality.

Deforestation, often for agriculture, urban development, and resource extraction, has resulted in significant habitat loss, altered water cycles, and affected the carbon storage capabilities of forests. Mining and drilling activities have physically altered landscapes and ecosystems, frequently leading to pollution and habitat destruction. Human intervention in water systems through the construction of dams, irrigation systems, and alteration of river courses has significantly impacted natural water systems. These activities, while fulfilling immediate human needs, often have long-term ecological impacts.

Pollution, a byproduct of industrial activities, waste disposal, and chemical use, has become pervasive, affecting air, water, and soil quality across the globe. Human-induced climate change, mainly through greenhouse gas emissions, is causing global temperature rises, melting ice caps, sea level rise, and altered weather patterns, further affecting ecosystems worldwide. Additionally, the significant loss of biodiversity due to human activities, with species extinction rates surpassing natural background rates, is a major concern, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable management and conservation practices.

In 2023, specific instances further illustrate how humans have changed the Earth's surface. An estimated 95% of the Earth's landmass shows signs of human activity, with about 16% heavily modified. This includes urban development, large-scale engineering works, mining projects, deforestation, and agriculture, all reshaping landscapes, and ecosystems. Pollution is pervasive across the planet. [3]

One notable example is the Pearson Reef expansion by Vietnam in the South China Sea. Through dredging and landfilling, Vietnam significantly enlarged Pearson Reef, adding 163 acres of land. This is part of broader land-building efforts in the Spratly Islands, increasing tensions among nations with competing claims. Similarly, the Cauchari-Olaroz lithium mine in Argentina opened in response to soaring lithium demand, driven by the growth in electric vehicles and battery-powered devices. The process involves extracting lithium from salt flats.

In Myanmar, agricultural practices, particularly large-scale aquaculture of tomatoes, have significantly reduced the surface area of Inle Lake, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The expansion of the Quebrada Blanca open-pit copper mine in northern Chile, to produce 300,000 tonnes of copper annually, is another example. The environmental impact of the Kakhovka Dam breach in Ukraine led to drastic changes in water levels in the Kakhovka Reservoir, severe flooding, and ecological damage. The breach caused considerable harm to the surrounding ecosystem and agricultural irrigation systems.

The construction of the Al Dhafra Solar Power Project in the UAE, the world's largest single-site solar power plant, covering over 20 square kilometers of desert and generating electricity for nearly 200,000 homes, showcases a shift towards sustainable energy. However, Ethiopia's completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile raised concerns over water supply for downstream countries like Egypt, highlighting the complexities of large-scale engineering projects. Lastly, construction began on The Line, a 170-km-long city in Neom, Saudi Arabia, as part of a high-tech eco-city initiative, though its environmental credentials have been questioned.

These examples highlight the diverse and significant ways in which human activities continue to reshape the Earth's surface, often with profound environmental and geopolitical implications. The extent of human impact on the Earth's surface is significant and ongoing, demanding a balanced approach between development and environmental conservation.

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The impact of the current AI Summer

In the context of the new Anthropocene Epoch, the energy consumption and environmental impact of AI and GenAI technologies are significant. Since 2012, the AI sector has experienced a rapid increase in energy demands, with AI model training, especially neural architecture searches, being highly energy intensive. This surge in energy use contributes notably to carbon emissions, electronic waste, and the demand for rare minerals. Large-scale AI systems and data centers further exacerbate the carbon footprint, with their operations comparable to the energy consumption of tens of thousands of households.

A recent study [4] predicts that by 2027, the artificial intelligence (AI) industry might consume energy equivalent to a small country like the Netherlands, estimated between 85-134 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually. This surge in energy use is attributed to the rapid growth in AI-powered services, especially following the advent of platforms like ChatGPT. AI operations demand significantly more power than traditional computing tasks due to their need for more powerful hardware. However, the accuracy of such predictions is debated, as tech firms often do not provide sufficient data for precise estimations. The study [4], led by PhD candidate Alex De Vries from the VU Amsterdam School of Business and Economics, bases its projections on current growth rates, the availability of AI chips (dominated by about 95% by Nvidia), and the constant full-capacity operation of servers. It also suggests that if the growth of AI slows, its environmental impact could be less severe than currently anticipated.

Even if the total energy consumption of future AI needs is difficult to predict or may not be significant yet considering the current global energy consumption and the consumption over the next 3 or 5 years, one must not forget the “hidden” impacts of chip-based technologies which are hungry for rare earth elements due to massive mining operations with their devastating ecological effects. Let’s also not forget the socio-political impact AI will have on a global scale.

The rapid growth of GenAI amplifies already these environmental concerns due to their substantial energy requirements posing a critical challenge in the new Anthropocene epoch.

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References:

1. https://www.mpg.de/20614579/crawford-lake-anthropocene
2. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00029-y
3. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231222-how-humans-have-changed-earths-surface-in-2023
4. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67053139