2023’s most important election?

Turkish voters will go to the polls on Sunday in what is likely to be the year’s most consequential election. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power for 20 years, first as prime minister and now as president, but he now finds himself trailing opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the polls.?

Erdogan has shaped modern Turkey. In recent years, however, the country’s economy has slipped, and its people have struggled with runaway inflation. An earthquake in February killed more than 50,000 people, and many Turks blame Erdogan not only for a lackluster emergency response but also for putting in place the conditions that led to shoddy infrastructure.?

Turkey is among the world’s 20 biggest economies. What happens there matters well beyond its borders. Erdogan’s model of leadership has been copied elsewhere; if he loses, strongmen around the world will sit up and take note. Turkey also plays a crucial role in NATO, the Middle East, and beyond. What will the May 14 elections bring? FP has compiled a roundup of our best reporting and analysis; six books to read ; an FP Live interview with experts Gonul Tol and FP’s Steven A. Cook; and much more on our website .—The Editors

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FP Live

Inside the U.S.-China Tech War

May 12, 2023 | 11 a.m. EDT

Where is the new tech war between the United States and China headed? How are other countries being impacted as a result? In what ways are they reassessing their relationships with the world’s largest economic superpowers? Join FP’s Ravi Agrawal in conversation with Dan Wang for a discussion about China’s technological rise and whether U.S. actions can really stop it.?

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Ukraine’s Spring Counteroffensive

May 15, 2023?|?12 p.m. EDT

Moscow has had months to prepare for a long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive. But as revealed by recently leaked U.S. Defense Department documents, the West has doubts that Kyiv will be able to make serious gains. What will the next phase of the war look like? Is Russia prepared for what Kyiv is planning? Will Crimea play a role? Could battlefield outcomes lead to a negotiated settlement? Join military expert Dara Massicot for a look at the dynamics of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.??

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Most Popular on FP

It’s Debatable: Is Decoupling Destabilizing the Global Economy?

Major speeches from Janet Yellen and Jake Sullivan double down on Biden’s strategy of linking U.S. national security with economic policy.?

Emma Ashford: I want to talk about political economy today. We’re not economists, but there have been a couple of big speeches in the last few weeks—from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan —that continue with the Biden administration’s approach of linking national security and economic policy.

And coincidentally, I think I saw you getting dragged on Twitter for expressing views on a similar subject. What was it you said? That China should be grateful to the United States for its economic growth in recent decades?

Matthew Kroenig: I tweeted that China’s economy grew over the decades because the United States wanted it to grow as part of its strategy of incorporating China as a stakeholder in the rules-based system. But now that China is challenging the system, the free world is kicking the ladder down. The tweet certainly got a lot of attention (most of it positive, so I am not sure “dragged” is the right description), but let’s start with Yellen and Sullivan because their pronouncements are much more influential than mine.

EA: OK, but the reason I mentioned it is because I think the message of your tweet and the two speeches were surprisingly similar: China should be grateful for U.S. economic leadership, and can continue to grow so long as it doesn’t upset the United States too much. You just put it more bluntly, with far fewer characters than they did.

For decades, access to foreign capital, markets, and technology have been key to China’s growth model, and now these things are being taken away.

MK: Yes. My 240 characters were motivated by the same set of discussions and were definitely blunt! If I had known the tweet was going to be read by more than half a million people, I would have selected my words more carefully!

But, yes, China has benefited greatly from the U.S.-led economic order over the past several decades. Washington knew China was stealing intellectual property, forcing Western companies to transfer technology in order to do business in China, and otherwise trampling on the rules of the global trading system. But it was willing to turn a blind eye because its strategy was to engage China in the hope that it would become a “responsible stakeholder” in a rules-based system. The U.S. economy benefited too, of course, with cheap Chinese imports that helped keep inflation down, for example…?

Continue reading on Foreign Policy .

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