2023 year of the next great something

To start off a new year we always need a new perspective. Hence this quote from Albert Einstein “I am enough of an artist to draw freely upon my imagination. Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world.”

Happy New Year and all the best to you in 2023!

The new year is here, it's time to look back on the past and reflect on the lessons we've learned. The road ahead has always been uncertain, filled with twists, turns and drama created mostly by the unexpected. No one can possibly predict the future with absolute accuracy. But one thing is certain: we have the power and will to shape our own destiny. So let's embrace the unknown, take on the challenges that lie ahead with excitement. Let's make a resolution to be better this year than the last year, and make a positive impact on the world. Let's make this year one to remember, one filled with our own potential to thrive. And when we catch ourselves in a moment of doubt let's remember to step aside and focus on the things we can control and just remain mindful of the outside world and just expect the unexpected from it as a normal. Here's to a new year, and a new beginning, let your imagination run wild. That's where new opportunities begin. Happy New Year!

Ai to earthlings... hello!

Now let me explain this is only the beginning of what AI will be able to do. However if you have not been on ChatGPT or even heard of it, you need to get up to speed fast! At the risk of sounding overly excited I have been waiting for this to happen all my life. While this application is limited and could be wrong and it needs your fact checking, it could improve your performance at work and in business in the next couple of years. Although in this next couple of years it will be a formidable tool for society and even level the playing field for society globally and small businesses locally. It will certainly change education. For perspective I asked it to write a story about leadership using the teachings of Peter Drucker and Tom Peters, below is what it processed and wrote in about 10 seconds. We can't process and write that fast ourselves. There is a lot of talk about this making 谷歌 redundant, it could, although they have their own AI capabilities, but they are afraid of using it because it could be wrong and hurt their reputation. I also believe that regulatory restrictions are going to pile in as well. Read More from CNBC Where is this going? Think about a computer in your home that is alert listening and responding to you as it does in most sci-fi movies you've seen. Think of it as a companion, caregiver, problem solver in the future, today it types back messages, when they open this up watch how fast more industries will be transformed and based on what I have seen in the last few days people are piling in. In the first 5 days 1 Million people subscribed and right now it is free. I am pretty sure that most e-commerce and social media networks will be making their great AI leaps as well.

Retailing in 2023 - return to (new & old) basics

A recession or not, retailers need a lot of planning in 2023. Here are my top 5 areas for significant improvements. 1. Continuously enhance the online shopping experience, a faster more responsive and interactive website is key. 2. Define and deliver a personalized experience. It is a step of differentiation that cannot be ignored. 3. Here it is and as I said in other issues of this newsletter, begin to introduce more payment options: retailers can attract more customers by offering a variety of payment options in store and online. It will be a big deal with consumers in a downturn. 4. Improve the in store experience, while service is a key component so is the store environment. Plans to invest in an interactive store making the store easier to shop and convenient is key. Case in point, many were ignoring work from home as passing fad. They were wrong! Work from home is about the new working leisure society, work life balance is now achievable. Therefore, convenience and speed of service are the new wow factors. If only medical clinics and hospitals could do the same. 5. Never stop exploring and incorporating the introduction and investment of technology from the back of the house to the front of the house. Pursuing the means to use data to improve the performance of your business should no longer be on the wish list.

2023 Recession (darkroom leadership)

The much anticipated recession of a lifetime is coming to fruition. But it may not be the recession of all recessions unless bank governors really screw up. And that's what worries me! The problem with darkroom leadership ( a term I use to describe when not enough insight is being used), it is easy to apply rules like there are no other rules to worry about, and that happens a lot when you play in a darkroom unable to see the outside and it happens everywhere. That's what this coming recession feels like. In fact, it didn't have to happen! First I don't make light of Bank Governors roles. However if I were rating their performance, I would have expected bank governors to recognize early that inflation was not transitory. Based on what I was seeing in the market they could have acted a lot faster in 2021. Had they come out of their darkroom and seen what we businesses saw, perhaps things might be different. Competence is very important to me. I worry that the same darkroom leadership is being used to resolve inflation. There is something too familiar to 1921 getting out of the Spanish Flu. Were going from a pandemic in 2020, to short hopeful burst in late 2021, to the beginning of inflation in 2021 and interest rates hikes in 2022, to a recession in 2023, none of this feels like a well managed recovery. The price now, is higher rates until they get to 2.0% inflation (which many believe is not necessary) add in higher unemployment to stop wage inflation. We all get it medicine that's good for you doesn't have to taste great. But when a pill is too hard to swallow that means we didn't think of the patient in the darkroom just the task ahead.

2023 the reconstruction of the corporate world

Within the first 6 months of the pandemic the media was writing stories and interviewing organizational design and HR experts who claimed that we were all anxious to get back to the office. Clearly it all backfired. The fear is what happens to all these office towers if we can't get people back into them. The under PATH in Toronto which connect this City's office towers and underground shopping courses is a fraction of itself when it comes to human foot traffic. Shops have closed, few have been replaced however the message is clear workers have made up their minds and employers can try mandating them back but in this tight labour market it could all crumble. I don't believe any employer will try to do it during or after a recession either...no one will want to work for them, at least not the best talent and that is the risk. Whatever developers were hoping for is now at risk. With every economic downturn we know that corporations have always cut staff because technology allowed them to. This time it may be a little different. And the reconstruction begins with home office lease renewals getting a lot of scrutiny from senior management. That's not to say there will be no office or that there will be no reductions in headcount. It just means that the corporate world needs to reinvent itself, putting a much higher emphasis the role of Human Resources, culture, organizational design and management of offsite employees. In fact corporations may turn to a lot of retired senior executives who can remotely manage and develop teams and their supervisors. Read this about a law office relocating to smaller digs. However it is likely that corporations will shrink even more. Tom Peters actually told us about the potential of technology to change things, that you have a billion dollar corporation with one employee... is that future? Not ours today but we are inching ever so closer to it.

2023 Not all EVs will be smart

Many will be in the EV market soon. Which car manufacturer will they choose? One that regularly upgrades your car's software to better manage your driving experience without an additional service fee? Which one has their cars tied to a neural network so that all cars learn from one another and they can spot issues before they get worse? Which manufacturer will be able to check your car while it is in your garage for any mechanical issues with the motors? So far none have come forward with those competencies. The only car manufacturer that is doing all of that today is Tesla. In fact, in 2020 the VW CEO openly said he was worried that Tesla's neural network was far beyond. Read more To be upfront, I own a Tesla I didn't buy it because of the founder. I care about what is the best performing vehicle in the market and its purpose. For me at this point the majority of new EVs are nothing more than the battery operated cars we got as kids. I don't want one! Competition means you can match Tesla on all parameters. By the way. I once sent a message to Tesla concerned about my battery capacity. They looked at the data while the car was sitting in my garage. A Tesla tech person sent a reply back, that I may want to slow down during accelerations, the batteries are in great condition. I also added autonomous driving to it. Why? Because as you get older your reflexes slow down too and so, I wanted to get used to that technology now. Unfortunately, most car manufacturers spend time dismissing this technology because they can't deliver it today. Make a wise choice when you buy your EV they are not all created equal.

2023 The environment vs the economy - both need one visionary leader

Dismissing a changing environment (climate change) could be one of our biggest blunders recorded in history. We can't just hope or believe that the right people will look after it. There is a societal problem with finding balance between saving the planet and keeping a sound economy. However, according to this 2020 report two thirds of Americans don't believe their federal government was doing enough to address climate change. And yet politicians continue to battle over initiatives and whether or not climate change is real. Why?

As long as there are old economy industries turning profit their advocates will fight to protect them

Our problem is that we have no all single country or global consensus. This environment vs the economy is a divisive topic and right wing political populists who oppose changes are medalling with a future that doesn't belong to them. I do not intend to dismiss left wing populists because they too can be very extreme and stretch the truth. And of course there are people not qualified from all sides over the argument with no credentials except for their beliefs and convictions and who is the loudest. By 2035 the future of this planet will not belong to anyone that is over 50 today, this isn't ageism it is a reality!

Dismissing the old economy could also send us into a deep economic free-fall. The future will have massive changes to old economy industries. Something that has been the backbone of society for over 150 years, and the fallout has got them all concerned. The problem? Few of these industries can transform themselves, you can't make oil and coal clean. However, not to sound like an alarmist but a harsh full stop, can create a similar fallout that also drove the 1930's depression, jobs were lost to mechanization in manufacturing and farms...and the shifts today driven by technology have the same potential. Yet no government has shared a transition plan. A just do it and it will all be fine doesn't feel comforting.

Not all industries can transform to protect the future.

Technology has given birth to destructive innovation and that is driving creative destruction of industries and jobs. We see it everyday! For example by 2025 Norway will not allow new gas cars to be sold in their country. Many states in the USA and Canada as a country plan to do the same by 2035. This is the Great Transition moving from the old economy to a new and sustainable one. Will we do it right? Fail or give it up to naysayers, for the sake of protecting old polluting industries? The truth is that by 2035 the oldest baby boomers will be 89 the youngest 71 the oldest GenX will be 70 years old. The future belongs to Millennials, GenZ and GenAlpha. We owe it to them.

Personal Log: 2023 Year Of The Next Great Something?

What will it be? A Recession? More supply chain issues? China reopening, round two of a global pandemic? The economy? TikTok versus Twitter which is really more toxic? Banning TikTok? The Russian attack on Ukraine, how much longer will the world watch the bully kill innocent people? What will we choose EVs and the Environment or Polluting gas cars and greed? Divisive politics and politicians polarizing views that divide neighbours, coworkers and families? Will interacting with Ai become the new human pass time? Will we all turnout in full force in the next elections and choose governments and leaders that end wars and focus on the future and well being of humanity? I am afraid that's a fantasy resolution.

No matter the issue something this year will hit the news and either move us forward or hold us back. I look at life in quarters. Right now generationally we are at the last quarter of this baby boomers era. There is always a shift that happens every 80-90 years and it does shake up the world as we know it, not always for the worst. However this change will usher in new directions and begins some with disruption others with equilibrium. No matter what comes I will stick to three proven rules in 2023 Dismiss nothing, Expect the unexpected and Plan for the improbable.

Happy New Year!

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