2023 Wireless Networks Wrap and 2024 Outlook

At the end of every year, I try to pause and take measure of where we’ve been, the lessons learned and where we are going to put things in perspective.?

Innovation and technology are always pitched at breakthrough speeds but adoption runs at a different pace. New entrants, new priorities and the constant ebb and flow of people from one company to another help shape the often bumpy forward progress of our industry. We tried and learned new things this year, and there’s excitement and optimism for what’s ahead. Here are the salient stories of 2023, and the ones I believe will create the most impact in 2024.

The 5G Journey: More Than Just a Rollout

Remember when 5G was the new kid on the block? We welcomed it with open arms and high hopes. In many ways, 2023 was the culmination of a slow-rolling reality check for 5G. We anticipated a faster and smoother rollout, but instead, 5G encountered hurdles – from technical to regulatory challenges. (Who can forget fears of CBRS interference with airplane altimeters? )

In the US, the major letdown with 5G is the unmet expectations of significantly improved data speed during everyday, on-the-go cell phone use cases. The reasons are many and varied. In the US, the spectrum most suited for what we refer to as 5G, the so-called CBRS band in the neighborhood of 3.5 GHz, is the one part of the rollout that has been as slow as possible. Carriers have done seemingly everything else: rapid adoption of everything that can be implemented as software in the network, flashy mm-wave installations that drain energy like there’s no tomorrow ; and, of course, making sure a sunny “5G” appears in the upper right corner of the handset.

How could this be, given that US carriers spent collectively more than $80B to acquire CBRS licenses? Again, there are a range of reasons but the biggest is that using new spectrum like this to cover large geographical areas means deploying lots of new hardware… and we all know what that means . Not the cool, awesome hardware with lots of NVIDIA chips that is a natural playground for new AI algorithms. No,? this is the analog, radio-frequency, Moore’s-law-will-not-save-you stuff that we engineers fell in love with back when electronic components were so big you could hold them in your fingers. Faced with large up-front costs and taking big efforts to deploy, competing carriers in the US did what big competitors often do: hold hands and walk slowly together.? Nobody wins, but nobody loses either! And consumers have nowhere to go, and nothing to do but wait.

Thankfully, some of this is changing. Deployment of cell towers in the CBRS bands will gradually bring us to where we all initially thought 5G would be.

The Next Chapter: 6G and Edge Computing

While we fulfill the promise and fine-tune 5G, the keywords of the future are 6G and edge computing. Although 6G is still in its early stages and fraught with ideas of tapping into the “unused spectrum” (a lot of it is, to put it mildly , not good for wireless communications), we are exploring a few good ideas about data and connectivity with faster speeds and improved reliability.

A great way to think about every successive “G” in wireless communications is that we are trying to squeeze more and more utility out of the finite spectral real estate. There is much room for creativity here, and clever ideas keep coming to the fore. A great example of creative problem solving is edge computing . Rather than mindlessly pushing more and more data through our communications links, we are creative about where we do our computing so that we can do more with the existing links. It bears repeating that the spectrum is a finite resource. We should always work on maximizing the possible throughput and be smart about utilizing our links.

5G Done Right – Spectrum Allocation Is The Strategic Imperative

Given the struggles of 5G and the fact? that spectrum is a finite resource, we are forced to conclude that spectral allocation is of the utmost importance for any nation that seeks to maximize the quality of its wireless communications infrastructure. I tiptoe up to this point because in the US we deeply believe that The Market will properly sort out the optimal configuration of private parties to control various swaths spectrum in different geographical areas. And indeed, spectral auctions are the norm in many countries around the world. So, are we following the best strategy?

I really don’t know. Having given it some thought, I still do not pretend to have magical alternatives that can guarantee something better. Any spectral allocation system can be gamed, governments can be corrupt, industry players push their own agendas in standards negotiations, and on and on and on. This is a real, Tower-of-Babel-scale problem that doesn’t have an easy solution. Nevertheless, it is the central challenge for any nation that seeks to maximize the performance of their domestic communications infrastructure.

The AI Revolution

One of the most exciting developments of 2023 has been to start integrating AI into wireless networks. This silent revolution is quietly changing everything. At its best, the complexity of optimizing huge networks is the type of challenge that AI was born to tackle. In 2024, I believe AI will become a more integral part of the wireless network story. Not in the flashy style of ChatGPT, but more like a smoothly running, well-planned highway system. This is the sort of large-scale engineering that requires huge effort and exists largely in the background. Watch for it.

The Human Element: Reflecting On Industry Layoffs

This past year, the news of layoffs in giants like T-Mobile, Ericsson and Nokia brought a sobering reminder: our industry is more than just numbers and cool technology. It’s about people and their personal pain experienced throughout our industry this past year. If you are fortunate enough to be in a stable situation, think of ways to help our colleagues who may be struggling. Lend a helping hand through introductions, kind words and, of course, job offers.

Things To Watch In 2024

AT&T is kicking Nokia out of its network. Probably the biggest story of 2023 in wireless was a huge triumph for Ericsson, a gut punch for Nokia, and questioned what this all means for Open RAN.

AI - AI is set to play a pivotal role in optimizing network traffic and enhancing network efficiency.

CBRS Band - Most promising spectrum holds the key to unlocking the true potential of 5G.

Gathering storm - There are constant rumors that Meta, Google, and Amazon are getting impatient about the state of wireless infrastructure in the US, and are considering how they can get involved, Tesla-style.

Here’s To The Dent-Makers

Progress, in the end, is thanks so many people working hard throughout the industry. I'd like to applaud some incredible individuals driving our industry forward. I don’t know them personally, but I see their efforts and appreciate them from afar. From the boardroom to the doodle pad on the kitchen counter, there are those who choose to dedicate their minds and time to make things better.

Here’s to:

Peng Cao : Vice President and General Manager at Keysight's Wireless Business. Keysight is actively involved in developing and testing 5G Open RAN architectures and has collaborated with numerous industry players, including Analog Devices, Azcom Technology, Dell Technologies, Intel, Nokia, Rakuten Mobile, and others.

John Oates : Systems Manager at Analog Devices, a company that collaborates with Keysight for automated testing of O-RAN conformance and technology validation for the O-RAN market.

???????? Jaiseo Park: Director of Mobile Access R&D Group at HFR Inc., involved in providing optimized End to End Private 5G solutions, participated in the O-RAN Fall 2023 Global PlugFest event.

Chris Sambar : Executive Vice President at AT&T Network, leading open platform sourcing in AT&T's wireless network and collaborating with Ericsson for Open RAN development.

B?rje Ekholm : President and CEO of Ericsson, partnering with AT&T in the industrialization of Open RAN and accelerating digital transformation in the U.S.

Mary Kay Peacock : At Parallel Wireless, spearheads efforts to strategically transform operational activities, ensuring the creation of products and delivery of services that support customer success.

Sanjay H. arwani: GM, India and VP, R&D at Parallel Wireless, with extensive experience in Research and Development. He has played a key role in building various products in Parallel Wireless's portfolio.

Glenn Laxdal : President and COO of Airspan, involved in expanding and diversifying Airspan's customer base, particularly in private network deployments in the U.S. and Europe, and playing a key role in CBRS solutions.

Raymond Dolan : CEO, Cohere Technologies (involved in OpenRAN).

Mansoor Hanif : CTO, NEOM Tech & Digital Holding Company (key figure in OpenRAN).

Yago Tenorio : Head of Network Architecture, Vodafone (OpenRAN advocate).

Azita Arvani, Stanford Sloan Fellow : General Manager, Rakuten Symphony USA (involved in OpenRAN initiatives).

Amar Kapadia : Co-founder, Aarna Networks (OpenRAN and edge computing).

Caroline Chan : VP and GM of Network Business Incubator Division, Intel (focus on 5G and edge computing).

Tareq Amin : CTO, Rakuten Mobile (pioneer in OpenRAN)

Andre Fuetsch : Executive VP and CTO, AT&T Services.

Ganesh Shenbagaraman : VP of Engineering, Radisys (involved in OpenRAN).

Jinsung Choi : SVP, Strategy and Technology Innovation, Deutsche Telekom.

Howard Watson : CTO, BT Group.

A special thanks to my amazing LinkedIn community who are always willing to engage on exciting topics. It is a pleasure to interact with you here and I look forward to more in 2024.

A Final Word: Finding Balance And A Thank You

In this fast-paced narrative, let's not forget the art of unplugging. In our pursuit of connectivity, let’s not lose touch with the world around us. After all, the best ideas often come when we take a step back, breathe and enjoy time with family, nature, and ourselves. As we chase technological breakthroughs, let’s also chase sunsets, laughter, and peace.

I wish you a happy new year filled with innovation, growth and balance. Let's continue shaking up the industry and make 2024 a year to remember!

Cheers,

Joel Dawson