2023: What to Expect for Crypto and Web3?

It is impossible to predict the future, but as owner and fund manager of Robert Ventures, what I have to do is:

• Analyze the trends over time
• Be in constant touch with market experts from every sector
• Assess both the risks and likelihood of market sentiment changing at any given time

We are navigating a bear market in the crypto sector while balancing high US inflation rates, constantly changing interest rates and the potential for a global recession. It can be overwhelming to decide where to safely place your money today when investing seemed so easy over the last few years. Investors are increasingly looking to actively manage funds to keep their money safe and maximize their returns. Here is how I see 2023 playing out

Increase in Crypto Volatility

If you have been keeping up with our newsletter, you know we have drawn much attention to the recent sustained period of low Bitcoin volatility. Bitcoin continually goes in volatility cycles, leading to increased market turbulence in 2023. Based on an analysis of the?weekly RSI?and past bear markets, we predict a bear market rally in Q1 or Q2 2023 to test the Bitcoin?fair market valuation. Then, a return-to-market lows should follow it before leaving the bear market near the end of 2023 or early 2024.

Increased Crypto Regulation

Many retail investors can only watch as their funds are tied up in numerous crypto bankruptcy lawsuits. Increased scrutiny will fall on not only these centralized exchanges but also their tokens. Although it is unlikely crypto assets like Ether and Bitcoin will see a change in designation, tokens issued by centralized exchanges could be regarded as securities. I think all will agree that some level of regulation is welcomed at this point. I expect a significant increase in institutional interest once these questions are answered.

Continued Turmoil for Centralized Corporations

Simply because we are two months removed from the FTX collapse and Bitcoin volatility is at a low, it does not mean the cost needs to be more explicit regarding centralized exchanges and lending platforms.?Luna?collapsed in May, then?Celsius?in June, and five months later,?FTX?went bankrupt. The extent to which these organizations are intertwined is unclear, but I would not be shocked to see more go down. To exemplify the web of entanglement,?Gemini?has locked user funds in its earn program due to the withdrawal freeze announced by its broker?Genesis?in November. Genesis is on the brink of bankruptcy and is a subsidiary of the Digital Current Group which owns the?Grayscale Bitcoin Trust?(GBTC) that currently trades at a 45% discount.

Self Custody and DeFi Will Continue Growing

Following the FTX meltdown, there was a tidal wave of?crypto leaving exchanges?and entering personal custody in the form of cold storage. This trend is expected to grow with a continued need for more trust in centralized entities among the crypto community. In time, this will be seen as a positive outcome giving individuals a chance to take control of their finances and explore DeFi. Of course, there are other paths toward mass adoption, which will come once the crypto user experience becomes a normal financial transaction. Features we come to enjoy in traditional finance, like seamless fiat-to-crypto and cross-chain transactions, recovery of funds, and safety nets from hacks will need to be implemented.

Back to Bitcoin Basics

Despite the negativity in the news surrounding crypto, actual assets like Bitcoin will come out of the rubble looking even better. Bitcoin was created not as an inflation hedge or a vehicle for getting rich quickly but to promote a trustless economy built on self-custody for your wealth. While your worries about the Fed and global macroeconomic instability are justified by numerous metrics (below), Bitcoin is at a historically advantageous price point. For those who believe in Bitcoin's value, you can follow our recommended dollar cost averaging strategy to alleviate the stress of timing the market.

• MVRV-Z Score
• Moving Average Analysis
• Logarithmic Regression

The Year of Crypto Use Cases

With the current market sentiment that is largely risk-averse, it is less likely that money will flow to crypto projects unless they bring real use cases. Meme coins and the latest NFT will always draw attention for a quick buck, but the value will accrue long-term towards assets and networks that people use. We are keeping our eye on?decentralized lending,?music NFTs,?Decentralized Autonomous Organizations?(DAOs), and more. See the next section, "On-Chain with Andrew," to find websites to help track which blockchains and projects produce real revenue leading to real adoption.

Joe Robert?is currently the Chief Executive Officer of Robert Ventures, with over 20 years of asset management experience. Since he started Joe has created predictable double-digit returns for investors & Partners. Joe has invested in seed rounds with equity and tokens, along with a portfolio of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top cryptocurrencies.

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