2023 - what can we expect?

Despite being less than two weeks old, 2023 is already shaping up to be quite the year. And whilst I could of course be referring to King Charles’ coronation, the Rugby World Cup in France or even the Eurovision Song Contest in Liverpool, once again I am choosing to focus on two of my favourite topics; politics and planning.?

Now if you’re reading this, chances are you’re very much aware the government launched a consultation on changes to the NPPF before Christmas. Indeed, chances are you’ve probably read said consultation and have already formed a view on the proposed changes. So instead of rehashing old ground, I’ve been thinking about how this will shape the year ahead. How will councillors across the country react to the NPPF consultation in the coming months? Will be see more Local Plans stalled or even withdrawn? And what will happen in May, with local elections set to take place in nearly 250 Councils across England alone?

From initial conversations, it is clear councillors from the traditional Tory shires are pretty darn pleased with the proposed changes to the NPPF. There has been a long-held view that ‘top down’ targets have forced councillors to make unpopular (but perhaps necessary) decisions on that most emotive of topics - planning. The shift from mandatory to advisory housing targets is widely seen as an opportunity for Councils - particularly those contained by Green Belt - to take an axe to their housing numbers and deliver far less than previously proposed. And whilst the proposed changes to the NPPF technically carry no weight in policy terms at this stage, in reality councillors are already thinking differently and the bar for approving planning applications has been raised. What will this mean for developers? It will now be critical to make a strong and positive case for the benefits a new development can deliver from the outset, as the argument for simply meeting unmet housing has become harder to make. Equally, the role of early stakeholder engagement and thorough and robust community consultation will be paramount, alongside the the ability to demonstrate both beautiful design and new infrastructure.?

Local Plans have already proved an early casualty of the NPPF consultation. Lib Dem controlled Mole Valley has already indicated they will be revising their already-submitted Local Plan to remove all proposed Green Belt allocations. There are also Extraordinary Council Meetings proposed in Horsham, Tandridge, Chichester and Epsom & Ewell (h/t to Andy Black for his excellent summary). Expect more delays and withdrawals in the weeks and months ahead.?

Which brings us to the local elections in May. Following a disastrous year, the Conservative Party trails Labour by around 20 points in the national polls. Coupled with a slew of by-election defeats to the both the Liberal Democrats and Labour, the Tories enter 2023 facing a significant political challenge. Perhaps the party is hoping that, by throwing its core voters some red meat in the form of reduced housing numbers, they will be encouraged to stick with them in May.?This may well prove to be simply rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, but for now it does seems to be placating the traditional Tory shires.?Either way, we are likely to see a number of Councils change hands following May, which may well lead to further Local Plan upheavals.?

Of course, the local elections in 2023 will also act as a precursor to the next General Election. With voters going to the polls from Bolton to Peterborough and to Wokingham, we will get a truly national picture of the state of the parties twelve months out from the expected General Election. Both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have already sought to capture the narrative for the year ahead with set-piece speeches, seeking to outline their respective visions to take the country forward. Set against a backdrop of high inflation, industrial disputes, a teetering NHS and an entrenched war in Ukraine, this is no mean feat.?

And on that cheery note, it simply remains for me to wish you a Happy New Year. It certainly promises to be an interesting one….