The 2023 ULI Miami Symposium

Yesterday, I had the opportunity to attend The 2023 Miami Symposium organized by the Urban Land Institute South Florida/Caribbean. ?The ULI event was held at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel, on Brickell Key. Incidentally, the developer of the project, Swire Properties, will be rebuilding the classic hotel in 2024 and the new project will also include 220 private residences. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/swire-properties-announces-one-island-drive-a-new-luxury-destination-for-sophisticated-island-living-in-miami-301840407.html

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The ULI Miami Symposium was a great success and brought together over 600 of the top minds and leading professionals in the fields of land use and real estate development. For over six hours, we had the opportunity to examine the city’s real estate outlook, opportunities, challenges, and trends, with insights on all asset classes. ?Big shout out to the amazing panel of speakers that provided both insightful and real time information.

The overwhelming consensus of the event is that Miami is having “its moment!” The city is bustling with activity and has shown remarkable resiliency in the face of major criticism dating back to the 1980’s. ?Everyone is excited about Miami's evolution and looking forward to many decades of continued growth. ?

Notwithstanding, the record-breaking statistics, there are also some clouds on the horizon - ?many generated from Miami's own success and rapid growth.

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Some major takeaways from the event:

?Florida

?The State of Florida is the 3rd Largest State in U.S. with 22.2 Million people and the 16th largest economy of the world. It is hard to believe that 100 years ago the Florida had more alligators and swamps than people. ?Since the Covid19 pandemic, Florida has been the #1 State for net domestic migration from 2017-2022 ?with more than 41 Billion in new income.

?Miami-Dade

?Miami-Dade is the largest city in the State with a population of approximately 2.7M people.

• ?It is the?#1 city of foreign-born residents in U.S. with? 41% of Miami residents are immigrants (LA 32%, NYC 29%).
• Miami is? #1 fastest growing city for venture capital funding in 2022 and ranked #1 for new firms’ creation in US (2.5 out of 1,000 residents).
• ?Education in Miami is comparable or better than comparative metropolitan U.S. cities at the elementary and high school levels but still lacks behind when it comes to post-graduate research.

While the city has grown in size and population, real estate continues to be the largest economic driver in Miami. Real estate is the highest in GDP of all of U.S. States, ahead of services, technology, and other industries.

It is ironic, that while Miami is all about real estate, the cost of housing is becoming prohibitively expensive. ?Miami today is the #1 least affordable region in the U.S., with 60% of medium income in Miami going for housing. This is followed by Los Angeles (46%), New York( 41%) and San Francisco (31%). ?

?The historically fast increase in interest rates has created a perfect storm: ?Buyers are priced out of the market because of higher rates and sellers are stuck in their homes with “golden handcuffs” due to refinancing at very low interest rates. ??As can be expected, the inventory stagnation has forced Miami residents to move further out of the city. This has increased commute times and some people are choosing to leave the city all together.

• Miami in 2020-2021 had -0.9% negative population growth (US Census).

Adding to these challenges, the insurance industry is facing more exposure due to climate change and inflationary cost increases. ?Seven companies left the state in 2022-2023. ?For the consumer there has been a significant price increase, ?a reduction in capacity and restriction of coverage. ?The good news is that Miami has invested over $400m in urban and climate resiliency projects since 2018 and seems to be addressing climate change issues on multiple public, private and non-profit fronts.

Just recently, the “Live Local Act” was passed in Florida with unanimous approval by both political parties. ?https://www.floridahousing.org/live-local-act. This Act, also known as SB 102, provides historic funding for workforce housing and creates new incentives for developers to deal with today’s housing stock challenges.

?In conclusion, the consensus at this year’s ULI Miami symposium is that while it is still challenging to build in Miami and get the desired ROI’s, the time is now to prepare and “get ready to build.”

Big shout out to Julie Medley Sydney Ramirez, AICP Mallory Barker for a great event and the speakers Tere Blanca Robert Given Henry Bott Alexis Calatayud Anthony De Yurre, Esq, LLM David Deutch Andre Dua David Martin Steve Patterson Tim Peterson Poland, Pam Kevin Rogan Craig Thomas Stephen Vecchitto Randy Rhoads Venus Williams?

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