2023 social media predictions

The start of a new year is like a sunrise, full of hope and reflection. It also brings predictions for change. 2022 was quite a year for social media, so I thought I'd share some of my thoughts for what 2023 will bring in this field.

Twitter - more Twittexodus?

What a year it has been when it comes to Twitter! I love Twitter and even I am now looking to leave. I was worried when I heard Elon Musk was looking to take over the platform. My worries were well founded as we have seen. Gone are the safety checks on Covid misinformation. Back are the misogynists and conspiracy theorists.

We had the debacle of the "verified" accounts that led to numerous fake accounts being set up and "verified", including a fake Eli Lilly account. It was not only the issue of fake accounts springing up and sharing false information, but also the hours it took Twitter to respond.

All of this has led to an exodus from Twitter. Many companies have pulled advertising on Twitter. Some have gone further and halted all use of the platform. Users, myself included, have been flocking to other platforms like Mastodon.

So what is next for Twitter? If nothing changes things do not look rosy for Twitter. Whilst I believe it is too big to collapse I think we will see a significant drop in users. A recent report suggest this number could be over 30 million by 2024. If the ad revenues do not return, or revenues to replace these, then I suspect Musk will have to choose between Tesla or Twitter - and here's a hint: Twitter will not win.

If medical misinformation continues to proliferate or get worse it will create a dilemma for those of us working in healthcare. Do we jump ship, and flee, or do we stay and do battle? Do we increase our activity to try to counter the fake information or do we step away from the hornet's nest that this is? I predict a decline in focus from pharma but more of a wait and see, or status quo, approach from HCPs and patient associations and advocates (myself included).

Mastodon - come join the party

Leading on from this Mastodon will continue to grow with Twitter refugees. Currently there is a feeling on Mastodon similar to the early days of Twitter. It feels friendly and most people are still quite new. It does not seem to be overwhelmed (yet!) with misinformation and hate speech.

It does feel a bit clunky compared to other social media platforms but with more users we will probably see improvements introduced. I remember the early days of Twitter when I never actually used Twitter directly because it did not provide the best experience (I used Hootsuite). With time all social media platforms introduced updates to try to improve the user experience. Mastodon will be the same.

Of course there are other issues. One of the quirks of Mastadon is that it is a fediverse and is self-hosted by individuals. That means that there is no single company running, controlling or owning Mastodon. You have to choose an individual server, or "instance", to join. This is one of the positives of the platform, but is also a potential issue. It means you have to trust the person running the server, or instance. There are potentially big issues around privacy, but, if we are honest, this is an issue across social media (that we often just ignore).

If you have not yet heard of Mastodon here is a good guide to the platform.

Tik Tok - time for change?

Tik Tok is everywhere! Tik Tok will continue to dominate but there are some clouds on the horizon. There is an increasing concern around the link to China and potential privacy issues. In the US there is a push to even ban Tik Tok in some way. The reality is most people do not actually care or are oblivious to the potential Chinese privacy issues. However if the US were to go ahead and actually ban it, this could have huge implications.

Given the size of Tik Tok now, if the US and others were to ban Tik Tok due to the China link I would not be surprised to see it shift operations abroad. Disconnecting from China or splitting into two separate entities based on geography would get round bans and concerns. Will this happen? Who knows ... perhaps Elon Musk might step in and buy it once he gets bored of Twitter!

Regulation - it's coming

I think it has been inevitable for some time that we will start to see more regulation when it comes to social media. In its early days it was a fantastic resource but over the last few years it has become increasingly toxic. The nature of social media is that it gives everyone a voice and the ability to amplify views. This can be a great thing, for example in driving disease awareness or providing support. Sadly it can also be a terrible thing, propagating hate and harmful content.

What is the answer? I personally believe the social media platforms have a big responsibility which they have not been addressing fully. Much of the polarisation that we have seen has been driven by algorithms feeding people the same content. There is also the issue of harmful content not being removed, or not quickly enough.

The inaction of the industry to act swiftly, and pro-actively identify and address these issues means, IMHO, that the inevitable will happen. We will see more and more regulation being imposed by countries. Whilst I used to be against this I now feel it is perhaps overdue. When we have children being radicalised or driven to suicide because of content they are being fed thanks to algorithms something has to change.

There needs to be a balance around free speech but I believe free speech is already challenged anyway. Many people have become increasingly afraid to post publicly for fear of being virtually-lynched a la JK Rowling. It seems that free speech is only free if people agree with what you have to say. The increasing polarisation of views has led to some very unpleasant behaviours on social media. The days when it was a friendly open place are becoming a distant memory in many cases.

With this happening it is time to act. It is time to rein in the algorithms. It is time to improve the monitoring and moderation technology. And it is time to bring in regulations to hold companies to account for some of the heinous content that remains on their platforms.

Pharma - cautious as ever

Finally what is my prediction for pharma and social media this year? I would say more of the same, but perhaps with a slightly more cautious approach again (thank you Elon!). I am seeing more and more interest in supporting HCPs to get training in social media and I think this is well overdue and will continue to grow in 2023. I would love to also see more pharma providing social media training and support to patient groups too.

We will see more pharma venture onto Tik Tok but probably not Mastodon just yet! I am hoping we will see some better content come out of pharma for social media but I have low expectations. I was recently asked to find an example of great social media from pharma ... and I really struggled. It has become very corporate, mundane and frankly very dull. But I should not complain ... I remember the battles to get pharma on social media in the first place!

So those are my predictions. My hopes are that things will get better and that I'll find more time to be active again on social media! Like all years I plan to write more posts, develop more content and post on a daily basis across all my accounts. On top of that I hope to find time to finally build up AutoimmuneChat! However given that I also have a busy day job, am very strict about taking time to disconnect and rest, need to spend more time exercising (I need to fit into my wetsuit in March), I suspect the realistic outcome of this year will be similar to last year. But you never know!