2023 Predictions: A Retrospective Analysis

As we move towards the end of 2023, it's worth revisiting the predictions I made last year about the tech world. These forecasts not only reflect the trends and shifts in technology but also offer a lens to understand where we are heading. Here's a look back at what I got right, what I missed, and insights into why. Original article.

Prediction 1: Crypto Will Continue to Decline

Outcome: Mostly Incorrect. Despite a turbulent year marked by SEC investigations and the FTX fallout, Bitcoin's price actually saw an increase. However, the overall attention towards cryptocurrency has waned, overshadowed by the rise of AI technologies.

Insight: The decline in crypto's prominence seems less about its utility and more about the shifting focus of tech enthusiasts and investors toward AI. This seemed to have no bearing on the financial value. At this juncture, is it still tech enthusiasts investing in bitcoin, or is that segment now dwarfed by other investors?

Prediction 2: Transitional Apps

Outcome: Correct. All major frameworks including NUXT and NEXT as well as new commerce like Astro and REMIX leverage transitional features. There is a clear resurgence in server-rendered websites, which can now be blended seamlessly with client-side functionality.

Reflection: Interestingly, the term "Transitional Apps" hasn't caught on as anticipated. The industry still leans towards "SPA (Single Page Application)", even though it is no longer an accurate descriptor of these tools.

Prediction 3: The Expansion of Edge Computing

Outcome: Correct. Edge Computing has indeed diversified, extending beyond CDN and basic compute functions to include features like edge databases. Its application spans from large corporations to hobby developers, indicating its widespread acceptance.

Reflection: Edge computing seems to have jumped from a new concept to an established tool for website hosting. Perhaps it is seen as an extension to the long-standing CDN.

Prediction 4: The Evolving Definition of Web3

Outcome: Correct. The attempt to amalgamate AI under the Web3 umbrella continues the dilution and ambiguity of this term. Web3 appears to be more of a buzzword linked to various hype cycles rather than a distinct technological category.

Reflection: Web3 and similar terms are clear evidence that we should be wary of new buzzwords. As programmers, engineers, and architects it’s important to test new technology so we can see past the hype and advise others.

Prediction 5: The Rise of Composable Commerce

Outcome: Partly Incorrect. While Composable Commerce gained attention, its adoption faced hurdles due to financial uncertainty and widespread tech layoffs. Moreover, confusion about its definition and relation to concepts like Microservices has slowed its integration.

Analysis: The debate over whether a single-vendor solution qualifies as 'composable' reflects a broader conflict in the industry. A recent poll showed that while users seek best-of-breed solutions, vendors often push for more comprehensive software packages. This conflict poses a challenge to the composable commerce movement.

Looking Ahead

A score of 3/5, not a passing grade. Given that you could have flipped a coin and come to similar results, I’m uncertain if it’s worth crafting a 2024 list. It's clear that the technology landscape is ever evolving, and for me, in unpredictable ways. What are your thoughts on these trends? Do you foresee any new developments in 2024? I’d love to hear your take.