2023 economic predictions as per Goldman Sach's Global Economics Analyst Macro Outlook

Out with the old, in with the new. 2023 is almost here. How will the world economy fare in the upcoming new year?

Here's a quick overview of projections from Goldman Sach's Global Economics Analyst Macro Outlook 2023 report. ????? (1/10)

Bumpy reopening of the Chinese economy, the US battling recession &? Europe neck deep in it will mean, the world economy will only grow by 1.8% in 2023. (2/10)

The US ???? had slowed to a below 1% pace this year, & it will continue to be here next year too. In other words, no it will not go into recession. In fact, core PCE inflation will decline to 2.9% by end-2023. (3/10)

Still, the nation will witness a 1?2pp rise in its unemployment rate. How will core inflation fall despite such a small employment hit? Possibly, because the post-pandemic labour market overheating was caused by unprecedented job openings, not excessive employment. (4/10)

The US Federal Reserve had hiked its rates by 75 bp recently & will do so again by another 125 bp to peak at 5-5.25% in attempts to keep inflation growth under control. There will be no rate cuts anytime soon. (5/10)

The Euro area & UK ????, already considered in recession, will witness further decline in real income of 1.5% & 3% through Q1 and Q2 respectively. Recovery is forecast for the region in the second half of the year. (6/10)

Core inflation in both these regions will peak before the end of 2021 & then slide down to approximately 3% by end-2023. Given the tight labour market, high wage pressures, and firm inflation, the ECB & BoE will hike rates to peak at 3 & 4.5% respectively. (7/10)

China is expected to grow slowly in Q1, due to its resurgence of Covid cases. Economic growth in the nation will accelerate soon after this in Q2. CPI will pick up from 0.7% to 1.2%. (8/10)

Overall, China’s growth will be severely affected in the coming decade due to weakness in demographics, productivity & the long slide in the property market. Trend growth for the region will dwindle to just above 3%. (9/10)

Central banks in Eastern/Central Europe & Latin America will continue to offer hiked rates battling the inflation in Hungary & Poland. Some respite for Brazil ????, the rate of inflation should come down & the hiked bank rate should stabilise in Q2. (10/10)