2023 Claims Another Climate Record.

Global temperatures on Friday (17th Nov) reached 2C hotter than pre-industrial levels for the first time in history. Adding to the list the long list of climate records broken in 2023.?

The milestone of passing the 2C mark, even for one day is highly significant as the baseline set by scientists to avoid climate catastrophe is 1.5C.

This latest setback comes off the back of multiple fresh reports into how the country and the world are failing to deal with rising temperatures, climate change, and their own emission output?

Multiple Damning Reports?

The most damning of these reports, aptly titled Broken Record, comes from the UN Environmental Programme - which tracks the progress in limiting global warming well below 2C and steering to 1.5C in line with the Paris Agreement from 2015.?

This report found that if the policies in place today to cut carbon were fully implemented, it would still lead to a temperature increase of 3C, double the allowance agreement in Paris.?

Inger Andersen, the Unep executive director, said:?

“There is no person or economy left on the planet untouched by climate change, so we need to stop setting unwanted records on emissions, temperature and extreme weather. We must instead lift the needle out of the same old groove of insufficient action, and start setting other records: on cutting emissions and on climate finance.”

The report did manage to salvage some positives amongst the deeply disturbing figures. Progress since Paris has been made. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 based on policy before the agreement was signed, were set to increase by 16 percent. Now, the projected increase is only 3 percent.

However, it’s still not enough - the predicted greenhouse gas levels still need to fall a further 42 percent to reach the 1.5C warming goal.?

Currently, over 86 days have been recorded with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year.

‘Broken Record’ perhaps comes at the perfect time for action, with the UN’s climate conference about to kick off in Dubai next week. The president of the COP28, Al Jaber said:?

?“There is simply no time left for delays. Cop28 must be a historic turning point in this critical decade for [countries] to seize the moment to commit to raise their ambition and to unite, act and deliver outcomes that keep 1.5C within reach, while leaving no one behind.”

Al Jabar is also CEO of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), one of the world's biggest oil and gas exporters, and is facing considerable question marks over the location of the summit and has previously been quoted as saying there is a future for fossil fuels - against the belief of the world’s scientists.?

2023 could be known as the year for obliterating records and when climate change really announced itself and became ‘physically’ known. Intensifying heatwaves, floods, and droughts have taken lives and taken no prisoners across the globe, nature reacting to a rise in temperature of 1.4C. Scientists say far worse is to come if temperatures continue to rise and if the predicted 3C The secretary general of the UN, António Guterres, isn’t wrong in his repeated saying that the world is heading for a “hellish” future.

A Widening Divide

Stopping the ever-increasing rise in temperatures might end up being an impossible task if the widening economic emissions divide isn’t addressed.?

The richest 10% of the public in developed countries cause up to 40 times more carbon emissions than the poorest 10%. This differs from usual statistics which concern the ultra-wealthy 1% and opens up a wider section of the population to scrutiny. The world’s richest 10% encompasses most of the middle classes in developed countries – anyone paid more than about $40,000 (￡32,000) a year.?

In the UK, anyone who is paid north of ￡59,000 a year can find themselves in that ‘10%’ bracket.?

Dr Lucas Chancel, a co-director of the World Inequality Lab at the Paris School of Economics, whose team has tracked the rise of carbon inequality within countries.

warned that because of this ‘blanket’ emissions policy across an entire population wouldn’t be as effective as focusing on the high emitters?

“If you just focus on the average, you’re missing a big part of the problem and you might also miss the right policy,”

He said that if, for example, a government levied an emissions tax across the population instead of focusing on the high-emitting wealthy, like income tax for example, it would miss a big part of the emissions reductions it could achieve.?

These sentiments were echoed by Ruth Townend, a research fellow at the Chatham House thinktank in the UK. The approach by governments to shift to green lifestyles unfairly disadvantaged the poorest in society and undermined trust

?“Policy sticks, such as taxation, should only be used to target those who have the capacity to make cuts, ie those who are better off, whereas policy carrots, such as subsidies and support for a lifestyle change, are needed for those who are unfairly burdened at the moment by rising fuel and food prices.”

Townend said the rich had the resources to change their high-carbon lifestyles without damaging their well-being, and supporting that shift among the wealthy could also help make greener lifestyles more aspirational

It rolls around again to the wrong battles being picked or the wrong subset of the population being targeted when the time to make mistakes and learn from them is fast running out. 3C would be a disaster for the world - if 2023’s violent weather was a result of ‘only’ 1.4C heating - it’s unimaginable what 3C would bring.?