2023 cattle markets: The year so far and the second half ahead

Key Takeaway: The first half of 2023 has seen significant changes in cattle and beef markets. Prices are higher across the board as tighter cattle numbers and declining beef supplies push markets towards or beyond record levels.?

Beef production in the first 24 weeks of the year is down 4.9% from the 2022 record pace. In the last four weeks of data, beef production is down 5.3% year over year. Total cow slaughter is down 4.4% for the year to date with a 12.1% year over year decrease in beef cow slaughter partially offset by a 5.5% year to date increase in dairy cow slaughter. Bull slaughter is down 8.4% thus far in 2023. The June 1 feedlot inventory was 11.55 million head, down 2.9% year over year. The decline in feedlot inventory has been relatively slow with May feedlot placements higher than expected based on lingering drought impacts and strong feeder demand as feedlots attempt to maintain inventories. Boxed beef prices in the last four weeks have averaged 24.1% higher year over year. Boxed beef prices moved sharply higher after Memorial Day by mid-June with strong buying for the Independence Day holiday. The follow up to July 4 (a four-day weekend for many) will provide good indications for beef demand for the remainder of summer. It is typical for beef demand to experience a slow-down during the summer stagnancy, but overall beef demand remains robust.?