2023: Building with a High Degree of Risk

“What we need to do is always lean into the future; when the world changes around you and when it changes against you - what used to be a tailwind is now a head wind - you have to lean into that and figure out what to do because complaining isn't a strategy.”

The past year has been full of challenges and unprecedented turbulence. Many look to 2023 and beyond for the hope of normalcy and financial progress. India and the whole startup ecosystem have been beefing up the play for more than a decade.

We learn more from success than failure and while we have seen enough failures, the country ended up building Unicorns or companies which have been addressing a large problem statement for an ever-growing digital economy. Knowing what works cuts down the possibilities dramatically, whereas experiencing failure only tells you one specific strategy doesn’t work. And that is where we have had the opportunity to grow.

How I see the markets over the next year is premised on three main pillars: (a) Macro situation, (b) Earnings trajectory, and (c) Valuations. Fintech Infrastructure, Deeptech, SaaS, DarkStores, D2C brands: Newer use cases, newer brands, a complete digital flow with?Aadhar Card India, Account Aggregator, ONDC, OCEN, and UPI - truly digitizing Bharat - bottoms up!

A theory of progress - the venture capital approach of high-risk, high-reward experiments does represent a distinctive way of coming at the world. If tomorrow's India will be a mere extension of today, why bother? The revolutions that matter for the?future?- the big?disruptions?that will create exponential growth for India are yet to come, in my opinion.

So what can we expect in 2023, probably?

• Digital lending in India grows to $100 billion, a 15x increase from 2018.
• Internet users in India rise by 40% from 560 million in 2018.
• India’s OTT video market will nearly triple.
• Internet users in India to rise by 40%, smartphones to double

Mature, comfortable societies, dominated by people who analyze every probability and manage every risk, should come to terms with a tomorrow that cannot be foreseen. It will be a discovery?by means of iterative, venture-backed experiments.

No great invention is ever built without a high degree of risk. But that’s exactly what makes the most audacious founders the very ones to shape the future. Now more than ever, grit, capital efficiency, and ingenuity are invaluable qualities to possess.

Despite the challenging market and global uncertainty, I remain confident that tomorrow’s unicorns are the one's building today.

Merry Christmas & a Happy New year 2023!

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