2023 Belgian Renewable Energy

Wind has achieved a record high production output in 2023, when looking at the equivalent baseload hours of generation of on- and offshore combined. 2702 hours. Despite the windy conditions and good output, the capture factor picked up with the long term trend again, as prices on the wholesale market returned to their seasonal patterns after the unusual 2022.

Balancing costs remained at their normal relative level compared to the annual turnover.

Solar on the other hand has seen a less positive evolution in 2023. After the exceptional 2022 high summer prices, the same return of a more regular seasonal pricing curve brought the solar capture factor also back to the long term trend, valuing it at a little below 80% of average market prices. Solar output has been reduced to a minimum record amount, with a small 944 hours (only 2013 seems lower in the graph, because of data quality issues).

But the main problem for solar in the years to come will be the balancing cost. 2023 with an above 12% balancing cost compared to the annual turnover, clearly breaks away from the long term average cost bandwidth. Effects of this observation can already be seen in the last quarter solar PPA negotiations, where increasing market discounts can be noted.

The increasing renewable energy penetration in the market is resulting in an increased volatility of day-ahead power prices, as is shown by the number of negative hourly prices observed in 2023, yet another record, despite overall high energy costs compared to the long term average.

As long as renewable energy will continue to outpace demand side management technology in dispatchable GW / year, all of the above trends are not likely to change in the coming years. Some first signs of a counterweight however can be observed as of 2023 with record sales of battery electric vehicles. Heat pumps and home battery systems however remain at a rather insignifant level of penetration to yet add to the balance. The main demand side management is coming from industrial demand today, and increasingly so, contributes to the overall reduction in energy costs for plant operators. 2023 also saw the continuation of large scale battery project announcements, yet again, largely outpaced by renewable energy growth. As such, their business cases will most likely turn out more positive in the years to come.

Being smart (dispatchable) is becoming increasingly rewarding when it comes to energy, and it won't be over soon.