2023: 166mm, 210mm large-size silicon wafers will occupy more than 90% of the market share
Editor's note: Some first-line component manufacturers started to promote G1 in the first half of the year, and the size wind direction began to change in the second half of the year. The size and specifications of the flowers have been arguing. Among them, Longji was the first to launch M6 silicon wafers, and Central also announced M12 responses. Both M6 and M12 have technically difficult parts to cross, which are mainly reflected in silicon wafer and battery-side processes. At the end of the silicon wafer, large-sized silicon wafers may be slightly difficult in the thinning process, and the chip rate is relatively small and the size is high.
Since 156.75mm (M2) has become the mainstream specification and the size has changed slightly after 2017, it is facing a bottleneck in improving cell efficiency in 2018. Size has become a hot topic again. Many manufacturers have challenged larger silicon chips in succession, and the area of components has changed. After the successful promotion of 158.75mm (G1) in the second half of the year, it has gradually increased its market share and established the mainstream size in the next 1-2 years. However, silicon manufacturers hope to consider the differences, the cost of silicon rods and other factors, and then introduce larger sizes of 166mm (M6) / 210mm (M12). The launch of multiple sizes has also mixed market trends. Manufacturers are still in the wait-and-see stage. The following are the current and future trends.
Overview of development in 2019
In the first half of the year, some first-line component manufacturers began to promote G1. Among them, Jinko, a vertical integrated manufacturer, was the fastest to advance, and JA and Trina also kept pace. And battery factories, Tongwei, and Aixu also started G1 size shipments, and increase each month.
In the second half of the year, the size of the wind began to change, and the size and specifications of the flowers contended. Among them, Longji took the lead in launching the M6 silicon wafer, and Central also announced the M12 response. Overseas manufacturers such as LG and Hanwha Cells have previously selected 161.7mm (M4) as the product size in order to distinguish them from Chinese manufacturers. However, manufacturers who have selected M4 size have not yet determined the future size planning trend.
In the second half of the year, most companies still use G1 as the mainstream size of monocrystalline silicon. In the second half of the year, production can be seen to gradually climb. However, as the size of the silicon wafer also needs to be changed, the downstream end and developers still need to verify And the assessment, coupled with the majority of the power station designs decided at the beginning of the year are still based on the traditional M2 size, it is estimated that the G1 size market share is only about 12%.
Large size bottlenecks are still mainly capital and technical difficulties
In terms of M6, because G1 has the same diameter as M6, but the area cut into M6 silicon wafers is larger, the silicon rods have less cutting losses, and there is a better price / performance ratio at the wafer end. The price / performance ratio is also better than that of G1, in an attempt to attract more manufacturers to join the ranks of M6. However, M6 involves the large-scale transformation of battery chips and module equipment. The cost of battery chips and module equipment during the transformation process is more than two to three times the cost of G1 transformation. Therefore, in addition to single crystal, Longji and its matched batteries Except for chip manufacturers, the input of other manufacturers is still compatible with the new expansion. The actual output depends on the order volume. Most manufacturers are still waiting to see if Longji can bring M6 into the mainstream. In terms of polycrystals, there is the size of M6 for the ingot single crystal integrated by Artes and GCL.
Both M6 and M12 have technically difficult parts to cross, which are mainly reflected in the silicon wafer and battery end processes. At the end of the silicon wafer, large-sized silicon wafers may be slightly difficult in the thinning process, and the chip rate is relatively small and the size is high. However, the battery terminal technology will have a larger problem, and unevenness may occur during the texturing and coating process, which makes the efficiency of the battery chip slightly decrease.
Monocrystalline products carry high cost performance and may accelerate the withdrawal of polycrystalline products
The strong cost performance of monocrystalline PERC modules after applying large silicon wafers and module technology further squeezes the demand for polycrystalline products. As a result, the demand for polycrystalline products has weakened significantly in October 2019. The overall supply chain has taken the lead in price collapse from polycrystalline battery chips, and the price has hit a record low. In mid-December, the average mainstream price reached $ 0.079 per watt. . The sluggish price of battery chips is also being conducted to the upstream silicon wafers and silicon materials, and at the same time, the prices of polycrystalline modules have fallen again. Nonetheless, the demand for polycrystalline products this year may be difficult to recover due to the gap in wattage, and the gap between the rapid price reduction of monocrystalline modules and the increase in wattage and polycrystalline products is even wider. Taking 72 modules as an example, the mainstream wattage of single-crystal modules will reach 390-400W, but even if polycrystalline modules are also equipped with large silicon and half-chip technology, the wattage may still fall between 340-350W, and the wattage gap is coming. Around 50-60W, the attractiveness to the terminal power station is not good when the price difference may not exceed US $ 0.03-0.04 per watt.
On the other hand, the ingot single crystal products that are officially mass-produced in 2019 may face severe challenges in terms of cost performance after the price reduction of single crystal silicon wafers this year. The development of ingot single crystals depends on the price difference of single and polycrystalline silicon materials in 2020.
However, if polycrystalline ingots are to follow the M6 size, it is difficult to upgrade equipment in the old production line. In addition, the shrinking demand for polycrystalline products and the continued loss of battery chips have become a foregone conclusion, making manufacturers unwilling to invest in upgrading, or Expansion of the new polycrystalline production line. At present, manufacturers can be observed to gradually convert the production line to single crystal. Too old production lines may consider exiting the market directly. It is expected that the market share of polycrystalline products in the global photovoltaic market will decline to this year. Less than 20%.
Future outlook
Future size standardization is still needed, mainly because unified specifications can have economies of scale and cost can be further reduced. In addition, if only a few manufacturers can provide large-size silicon wafers, price control will be limited to a few manufacturers, which is not What downstream manufacturers like.
However, during the development process, there will still be multiple sizes of parallel conditions at the stage of uncertain market direction. Observing the trend of our estimated size changes, we can see that there will be four sizes of parallel conditions this year. We expect mainstream sizes to remain It will be that G1 market share will reach 60%, while M6 will gradually begin to develop, and market share will reach 13%.
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