2022 Industry Outlook: Semiconductors will move from a comprehensive core shortage to a structural shortage

Under the background of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the changing global trade pattern, from the middle of 2020 to the end of 2021, the phenomenon of global core shortage has intensified, and price increases have become the main theme of the semiconductor industry, and semiconductor companies have made a lot of money. As of January 12, 16 of the 17 A-share semiconductor companies that have released 2021 performance forecasts have achieved performance growth.

In 2022, will the core shortage continue? Can the global semiconductor boom still thrive?

ST, TI, Onsemi, NXP,XILINX , ALTERA, Central,ROHM, Microchip,ADI,AOS......Millions type chip at stocks for supporting!?

Our customers are all over: Russia, Ukraine, Germany, the United States, Brazil, Denmark, France, Turkey, Vietnam, India...

If you need components from other brands, we can also obtain them from regular channels.

If you buy chips from other suppliers in Shenzhen, China, I can provide free inspection services (identify fakes and avoid being deceived)

A reporter from Shanghai Securities News found that at present, due to the growing demand in the fields of automobiles and industrial control, the supply of power devices, semiconductor equipment and materials is still tight, and the delivery cycle is still prolonged. Looking forward to 2022, the global semiconductor industry will enter a more orderly growth, and the tightness of the industrial chain may be reduced, but there will still be a shortage of high-end chip products. The industry as a whole still maintains a high prosperity.

The continuous expansion of the domestic market and the solid innovation of local companies are agitating each other, promoting domestic semiconductors to enter a technology-driven growth period, and more upstream equipment, materials, and components have begun to enter the fast lane.

Bright performance and accelerated localization of the entire industry chain

Whether an industry is developing well or not can be known by looking at the performance of relevant listed companies. As of the evening of January 13, 19 semiconductor companies have released 2021 earnings announcements.

According to statistics from Dongcai Choice, since January 1st, a number of chip industry chain companies such as Allwinner Technology, National Core Technology, Yangjie Technology, Zhongying Electronics, Liyang Chip, and Chippeng Micro have disclosed their 2021 performance. forewarned. Prior to this, Puran shares, Actions Technology, Gaolun Electronics, etc. have made annual performance forecasts in the IPO prospectus.

Specifically, except for the decline in performance of Gailun Electronics, the remaining 18 companies will achieve year-on-year growth in performance in 2021. Among them, Dongxin Co., Ltd. is expected to have a net profit of 225 million to 240 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of more than 10 times. New Clean Energy expects net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 to be 408 million yuan to 413 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 192.78% to 196.37%. In addition, the lower limit of the net profit growth of 8 companies including Liyang Chip and Suzhou Gutechnetium in 2021 will exceed 100%.

According to industry insiders, the semiconductor company's performance in 2021 has grown significantly, and the major reason is that in the context of global shortage of cores and rising product prices, relevant companies have seized the opportunity to launch new products and increase shipments.

"In 2022, the localization of the entire semiconductor industry chain will also accelerate." The above-mentioned industry insiders further explained that demand and technology drive the development of the semiconductor industry at both ends, and China's mobile phone, home appliances, computers and other complete machine industries are going international to China's semiconductor industry. Development provides demand-driven. Now, under the catalysis of multiple factors such as the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the new global trade pattern, China's semiconductor industry has entered a technology-driven growth period, localized supply chains have received more attention, and more upstream equipment, materials, and components have begun to enter a period of rapid development. .

Jingce Electronics is a typical example of the local semiconductor equipment under attack. Jingce Electronics recently replied to investors in Interactive Easy that the company will launch a 12-inch stand-alone optical linewidth measurement device (OCD) and a 12-inch fully automatic electron beam wafer defect review in a head fab in July 2021. Equipment (Review SEM), the verification is progressing very smoothly.

Prosperity is still the lack of core phenomenon began to differentiate

From the middle of 2020 to the end of 2021, the global semiconductors are running wild in the high economic cycle, and the lack of cores has become a hot word across the year. But on the other hand, the market continues to worry about the decline in the semiconductor boom, worrying that there will be a surplus of chips after waking up.

Who has the resources to get these chips from ADI? When the market frequently reported weak demand, the reporter recently saw some people in a semiconductor industry group frequently searching for cores. In 2022, will there be a shortage of cores?

The reporter's comprehensive opinion is that on the whole, the global semiconductor industry will still maintain a high degree of prosperity in 2022. Vertically, the upstream of the industry chain is still in tight supply; horizontally, affected by demand, downstream chip products have entered a differentiated market of supply and price.

"Restricted by the equipment delivery time, the expansion of silicon wafer factories cannot rapidly increase the volume. The supply of 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers will continue to be tight, and prices will rise." An executive of a domestic semiconductor silicon wafer company told reporters that by 2025, domestic 12-inch large silicon The monthly demand for tablets will reach 2 million, which is twice the demand in 2020. But at present, only a few domestic companies such as Shanghai Silicon Industry, Zhonghuan Co., Ltd., and Shanghai Super Silicon can supply 12-inch silicon wafer products, which are far from meeting local demand.

How tight is semiconductor equipment? "I made three trips to Japan a week for the order of the next equipment." A silicon wafer factory executive complained to reporters. A domestic semiconductor equipment company also said that its company's equipment business orders are hot, and the delivery time is more than 8 months.

The expansion of the fab not only has to wait for equipment, but also continues to feel the pressure on the supply of consumables such as silicon wafers, and the cycle of new production capacity is prolonged. According to public information, TSMC, UMC, GF, etc. in the wafer manufacturing field have publicly stated that their production capacity in 2022 is not only sold out, but product prices are still rising.

"The production capacity of fabs is still tight, but the production capacity of packaging plants has begun to loosen, and the supply of individual chip products downstream has begun to be surplus." Many industry insiders said that looking forward to 2022, although some chips may still be in short supply, the global semiconductor supply chain is the most chaotic The period has passed, the ordering cycle of packaging factories has begun to shorten, and the channel prices of some chip products have begun to fall, which means that the global semiconductor industry has begun to develop in a more orderly manner, which will help the industry maintain a long-term high prosperity.

"Now there are fewer urgent orders, the production capacity will not be crowded, and we can also have the energy to do some new projects." As the production capacity shortage has eased, an executive of a listed packaging company said that this will help the company, customers, and the industry to become more benign , innovative development.

The delivery time is extended, and the demand for the three major tracks is strong

Under the structural market, which chips are more popular?

"In addition to consumer electronics, demand in the automotive and industrial control fields is very strong." A relevant person in charge of an FPGA chip company told reporters that they did feel the weak demand for consumer electronics, but the demand in other fields was good. The statement of the FPGA chip company was also recognized by a relevant person in a power semiconductor listed company, who told the reporter: "Now place an order for us. The delivery time for general customers is more than half a year, and the delivery time for the shortage of material numbers is even longer. ."

According to industry forecasts, the sales growth of China's passenger car market in 2022 is expected to be 3% to 8%, which will require more automotive chips.

The reporter learned from various interviews that at present, the supply of panel driver ICs, consumer-grade MCUs, and large-capacity storage has begun to loosen, and the prices of some products have begun to fall. However, some power semiconductors, especially chips used in automotive, industrial control, IoT (Internet of Things) and other fields are still tight, and the delivery time of some products from companies such as ON Semiconductor, Renesas, STMicroelectronics, and Infineon has been extended.

"Demand is created." A semiconductor and complete machine manufacturing company disagrees with the statement that consumer demand is weak. In an interview with reporters, he said that only by providing innovative products to consumers can they receive demand. At present, the demand for innovative and competitive consumer electronics products has been recovering strongly, especially the shipments of notebook computers, smart watches, SiP headsets, smart cockpits of new energy vehicles, and low-power servers are growing rapidly.

The above-mentioned claims of semiconductor and complete machine manufacturing companies have also been recognized by related companies in the fields of Bluetooth chips and LED driver chips. An executive of a Bluetooth chip company said that since the second half of 2021, the shrinking demand for cottages has led to a decline in the growth rate of the entire TWS headset industry, but the brand TWS headset market is still growing steadily. In the LED field, the demand for smart lighting is still growing steadily.