2022 Holiday Party Recap: What is ChatGPT and does it actually work?!
Cannell & Spears
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ChatGPT was THE Wall Street holiday party conversation topic of 2022.?At Spears Abacus, we wondered if we could free up some additional time for merry-making by recruiting the #machinelearning of ChatGPT to write our quarterly letter.?Readers (and writers) of quarterly letters will likely agree that the below missive is pretty good, especially for 15 seconds of work.?But quarterly letter party trick aside, what are the implications??We think it is too early to say, but here are our initial observations:
1.??????The most exciting uses for this technology probably aren’t obvious.?We’ve read a lot of headlines about ChatGPT disrupting 谷歌 .?It’s possible, but we doubt that the most disruptive use of natural language machine learning is answering questions about where to find Meta , YouTube , or 亚马逊 ; the three most common Google search terms in 2022. As a bonus, Wordle was #4 and a Google search of Google was #5...
2.??????ChatGPT is quite often wrong, and is wrong with authority. This is rather problematic.?Google and Siri don’t always give you the answer that you are looking for, but they do tell you where the information is coming from.?You can be the judge.?Not so with ChatGPT.?After a few wrong answers, we started to doubt whether we could trust it.
3.??????Creativity is still controlled by humans.?The first time you ask ChatGPT to write a story about something, you are likely to be blown away by the “creativity”.?But, spend more time with it and you realize that most of the creativity comes from the query.?In our quarterly letter example, ChatGPT added a nice flourish about 1970s-era inflation and Paul Volker, but only after we asked it to include “a reference to 1970’s inflation and Paul Volker”.??
4.??????Is hyperscale computing a commodity or monopolistic??We don’t know how much computing power ChatGPT is using, but we are confident it is a lot. As a reference, ChatGPT told us that #GPT3 required 175 petaflops of computing power to train.?In our usage, the computing power was provided by 微软 Azure.?There are probably only two or three other companies that could offer the requisite processing power required, and that number may shrink over time.
5.??????ChatGPT is still pretty amazing.?If you haven’t used it, give it a try, and let us know what you think.
Dear valued clients,
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?As we approach the end of the year, we wanted to take a moment to reflect on the performance of the markets and our portfolio. Overall, it has been a challenging year as stocks have faced headwinds from rising interest rates. As you may recall, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates several times throughout the year in an effort to curb inflation and maintain economic stability. These rate hikes put pressure on stock prices, as higher rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow money and can also lead to increased competition for investment dollars from other asset classes such as bonds.
?This situation may seem familiar, as we have seen this play out before in history. In the 1970s, for example, the US experienced a period of high inflation that required the Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Paul Volker, to raise interest rates significantly in order to bring inflation under control. While this policy helped to curb inflation in the long run, it also led to a significant stock market downturn in the short term.
?Despite these headwinds, we believe that the underlying fundamentals of the companies in our portfolio remain strong. In fact, many of these companies have reported solid earnings and revenue growth this year, indicating that they are well-positioned to weather any potential market volatility. Going forward, we believe that earnings stability will be a key driver of stock market performance, as investors look for companies that can deliver consistent and sustainable growth.
?We are confident that our portfolio is well-positioned to weather any potential market turbulence and capitalize on opportunities as they arise. Our investment strategy is focused on identifying companies with strong fundamentals and long-term growth potential, and we believe that this approach will continue to serve our clients well in the coming years.
?We hope that you have had a successful year and that you are well-prepared for the challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead. If you have any questions or concerns about your portfolio or the markets in general, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. We are here to help you achieve your financial goals.
?Sincerely, [Your Name]