2022 "4/20" Predictions

The month of April is a busy and exciting time in the Cannabis industry. I always found it to be the starting line for the year. The launch pad for a new innovation roadmap or product strategy. Centred around the 4/20 shopping holiday, it's a great revenue driving opportunity for the entire value chain. More raw materials, more (new) products, more promotions, more in-store traffic, more sales. It’s an opportunity for a revenue jolt that can provide positive momentum for a brand leading into the summer, traditionally the highest consuming season of the year.

The challenge that Brands and Retailer's face is noise and overwhelming choice. The Ontario Cannabis Store says it lists over 2100 different products to choose from. That’s a lot of noise to bust through. Additionally, the OCS is going to be launching over 200 new products from April 12 – 25.

Private retailers also face a lot of noise from their competition with the added challenge of creating traffic drivers that do not rely on a deep discount sale. Private retailers are feeling the impact of an over saturated market, heavy handed regulations, and a price war. For those retailers who have been building a community, this holiday should provide tremendous opportunity for payback and help protect margins. Now’s the time to leverage the power of a well-developed community of customers to not only deepen their relationship with the retailer but also remind them why they are a part of it to begin with.

The entire industry is going through a challenging price war. Great for consumers but unsustainable over the long term. I know there are smart retailers and marketers out there that are getting ready to deploy compelling campaigns that will protect margins, drive consumer value and break through the noise. I'm excited to see which teams come out on top.

Here are a few (probably wrong) trends that we will see this 4/20:

Pre-Rolls

Pre-Rolls will be the top selling category followed by flower and concentrates. Big LPs will win in this category if they have a trusted supply chain and large retail distribution network. It wouldn’t hurt either if there was a new product being launched leading up to the big holiday, like the The Loud Plug Benny Bluntos, produced by Canadian Clinical Cannabinoids. This for sure will be a high demand product.

Hash

Of all the concentrates, Hash and its various forms have the most potential to grow. Look for innovative new Hash products making it easier and more convenient for the consumer to consume whether that is format, category or packaging innovations. Bonus points if someone figures out how to market Hash better than what is out there and really own the category. For me, it's always been about the unique benefits Hash offers over other products and I think that is still up for grabs.

Craft

I think craft brands will be the most interesting to watch this year. One of the advantages of being a smaller company is that you are forced to think about the bets you’re going to make on sales, marketing and product really really hard. You don’t have the luxury of trying to do everything and even if you did, I wouldn’t recommend that strategy. I believe craft producers are well positioned to fully capitalize on the 4/20 holiday and own it.

Events

With mask mandates going away, I think an opportunity exists for branded experiences as retailers and brands try to leverage and grow their communities. Remember when you and your friends would meet in a field on 4/20 at 4:20pm and light up? Now is the perfect time to bring that back because those who know what 4/20 is about, who value it and are enthusiastic about it would welcome an opportunity to attend. A quick search of "420 New York City" on Eventbrite produces over 360 pages of events ranging from "Puff and Paint" to "Celebrate 4/20 Culture on The Best Mega Yacht in New York during Sunset", a 3 hour cruise that comes complete with dinner service that has over 16,000 followers.

I’ll be back in a few weeks for commentary on this year’s 4/20 winners and losers with some special guests adding their perspective.

What are you most excited for this 4/20? Do you agree with the trends or do you see it differently? Let me know whats going on below in the comments!