The 2021 Zambia General Election: What the Numbers Say

The 2021 Zambian general election is one for the history books. Last week on the 12th of August 2021, over 4 million Zambians stepped out to head to the polls to select the next head of state, members of parliament, mayors, and councilors to lead governance of the country for the next 5 years.?

In the early hours of Monday morning on August 16th 2021, the Electoral Commission of Zambia declared that Hakainde Hichilema, the leader of the United Party for National Development (UPND), had won the election by a clear 50% plus margin over the incumbent President Edgar Lungu, leader of the Patriotic Front (PF) in 155 out of the 156 constituencies.?

The atmosphere in Zambia was one of jubilation for the victors, thousands of people flocked to the streets to celebrate the election outcome in the wee hours of Monday morning. The United Party for National Development scooped the top job earning the majority vote with 2.8 million voters selecting the UPND as their preferred choice for government.

The UPND’s victory comes at a time when the nation is in much need of change. The Patriotic Front government has ruled the country for the past 10 years and their reign as the ruling party has been one of mixed emotions for most Zambians.?

The PF has invested heavily in infrastructure development at a cost which raised external debt to unsustainable levels. In addition, the PF government had a strong crackdown on the opposition, private media, civil societies, and citizen’s freedoms of expression and movement.? The UPND on the other hand promised to restore to the citizens the bare minimum tenets of democracy. This included a stump on lawlessness and maintaining order under the guides of the Zambian constitution.?

Taking a closer look at the election numbers reveals some interesting facts. There is clear evidence of a shift in popularity figures from the PF to the UPND since the previous two general elections. Provided below is a review of five (5) key data themes that highlight the main shifts that characterized this year’s general election.

1. Registration of Voters

The voter registration exercise of citizens across the 10 provinces of Zambia was carried out in November 2020. The Electoral Commission of Zambia instituted changes based on recommendations from previous elections. The main change being the introduction of a new voter roll.?

The voter registration exercise went ahead for a 30-day period, with electoral officials rotating across different polling stations and civic centers to register as many voters as possible. The exercise was not without its challenges: there were reports of subjective registration practices in the Southern, Western, and North-Western provinces. Eligible citizens looking to register to vote are regarded to have been disenfranchised parts across the three (3) provincesof th areas. While the remaining parts of the country experienced little to no challenges in the voting exercise.

Based on the above reports, the voter registration results provide some confirmation to the allegations. PF strongholds received an increase in voters from 2016 at an average 15% by province. On the other hand, UPND strongholds experience a decline in registered voters at an average rate of 6% by province. See the table below.

2. Voter Turnout

This year’s voter turnout was the highest it has been in the last decade. About 70.95% of voters exercised their right to vote, a few percentage points shy of the 2006 general election turnout which had the highest voter turnout ( 71.9%) since Zambia got its independence. The high turnout of voters across the country proved to be overwhelming for the Electoral Commission of Zambia; but they professionally executed their duties and ensured the final election results were announced within their target of 72 hours of the last cast vote.

Presented below is a snapshot of the voter turnout results of Zambia’s previous elections.

Looking at voter turnout in the numbers below, it can be argued that Zambians were in a business mood this time around. The most recent elections preceding the 2021 general election can be said to have been characterized by voter apathy. Although, there has been a general steady growth in the voter turnout since 2008.?In 2021, this wasn't the case as about 4.8 million voters came out to cast their vote at the 12,000 plus polling stations scattered across the country.

3. Voting Dynamics at National/Provincial/Constituency Level

a) National Level

In order to avoid an election re-run, either of the political parties had to ensure that they received +50% of the overall total of the valid votes cast. With this in mind, in order to be successful in this push, the presidential candidates had to gain the favor of not only their traditional voters but also voters on the fence and convince a few of those with opposing views.

As the final results showed, the UPND enjoyed a surmountable victory over the PF party. This was a signal of the wind of change in the political trajectory of Zambia as the UPND became the party of choice for the majority of voters, 59.4% to be exact .

?b) Provincial Level

According to the trend analysis of the provincial election data over the past three (3) general elections, the UPND made significant gains in the total percentage of valid votes received across the board. Conversely, the PF lost ground in terms of total percentage of valid votes received across the board. Compared to the previous two elections in 2015 and 2016, ‘stronghold’ territories did not exhibit the same kind of voting trend this time around as the voting pattern changed to the benefit of the UPND and to the detriment of the PF.

In the figure below, it can be observed that there has been convergence in PF stronghold provinces, especially the Eastern province. While, the voting trend remained relatively the same in UPND stronghold provinces, with slight divergence observed in Central province. Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces had a complete turn around as both provinces pivoted from a PF majority to a UPND majority.

The 2021 general election result was determined by huge gains in the swing provinces of Lusaka and the Copperbelt. Additionally, though the PF won the popular vote in its strongholds, its grip on stronghold provinces such as the Eastern and Luapula provinces significantly reduced. On average, the UPND led the PF in UPND inclined provinces by a margin of 64.3%. While, the PF led the UPND in PF inclined provinces only by a margin of 20.6%.??

One of the two main reasons for the UPND’s growth in popularity can be attributed to the economic hardships experienced by most citizens and the PF’s marginalization of the Southern, Western, and North-Western provinces. Despite Zambia being geographically separated into two main regional blocks, the country and its people remain integrated down to the lowest unit at family level regardless of ethnic origin.?

Thus, voters looking for a deliverance from the economic hardships; as well as those who might have been disdained by the PF’s tribal campaigning, had an easy alternative in the UPND.

c) Constituency Level

A comparative analysis of the PF & UPND’s constituency level performance in the previous elections was able to reveal the turn in the voting trend at parliamentary level. The UPND gained advantage over the PF in terms of percentage of votes received in a number of constituencies in PF strongholds.?

The voting pattern in UPND stronghold constituencies remained consistent for the UPND across the 2015 and 2016 elections, with a slight surge observed in the 2021 election. On the other hand, the PF's voting patterns in the UPND strongholds had worsened compared to the previous election.

Swing constituencies leaned more towards the UPND in the 2021 general election compared to 2015 and 2016 elections. The PF performed lesser than 2015 numbers but similar to 2016 numbers in swing constituencies.

4. Demographics

The 2021 general election will be remembered as the election of the youth. Not only did the youth turn up in numbers, they were vigilant in protecting the votes with a number of them returning to various polling stations during the count to observe the vote counting process. The hashtag #youthvote2021 was famous for providing important information and airing the voice of the youth throughout the election process.?

The same could be said about the Zambian female voter population. Young and older women alike stood strong and braced the not-so-friendly weather conditions on election day in order to exercise their democratic right. The demographics confirm that females are playing their part in voter civic duties.

5. Parliamentary Vote

Another important dynamic that was at play and discussed in detail during the campaign period was that of leadership. What kind of leadership were the leading camps proposing for the next five (5) years?

The UPND pushed a strong narrative of failed leadership in their campaign messaging, highlighting a number of issues that arose during the PF’s tenure under former president Edgar Lungu. These issues included the rising cost of living, corrupt practices amongst the PF leaders, the abuse of public office, and an increased debt burden.?

On the other hand, the PF focused more on highlighting the infrastructure development that could be seen across the country. Similar to their messaging during the 2016 election campaign. Lastly, the PF also took on an ‘unpopular’ ethnic messaging that sought to discredit leadership from the south.?

These campaign strategies were adopted both at presidential and parliamentary level. The results revealed that voters followed a similar voting pattern both at presidential and parliamentary level. The UPND won parliamentary majority, securing a little over half of the parliamentary seats that were up for contention.?

Out of a total of 156 seats, the UPND saw an increase in their allocation by 40% from 58 to 81. The PF saw a decrease in their allocation by 21% from 80 to 63. There was no two-thirds majority meaning the opposition still has a level of influence in determining the success of parliamentary procedures.

Therefore, all-in-all, what do the numbers say? The numbers tell us that the Zambian people are not afraid of change; they have continued to put the interest of the country first even if it means electing a new party to take over the governance of the country. The numbers tell us that Zambia continues to be a beacon of peace on the African continent, demonstrating to the world that it remains committed to delivering the will of the people through the democratic channels outlined in its constitution. The numbers tell us that the Zambian people understand that they are the masters of their destiny and are going to hold their leaders accountable through the ballot. The numbers tell us that the youth and females in Zambia are the future; they have shown that they are willing to actively engage in politics in order to ensure that their voices are heard.???

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the political parties in mention or the Electoral Commission of Zambia.