2020...some predictions
As we approach not only the end of the year, but the end of the decade, I thought it was a good moment to look back at some of the predictions from my crystal ball that I made around this time last year and it reminded me that the predictions game is a dangerous one.
My prediction that England would win the Rugby World Cup in Japan (congratulations once again to South Africa) sadly did not come to pass. I also mentioned that a very smart financial journalist had predicted that 2019 would be the year that we found extraterrestrial life in the universe. Unless I missed the announcement, I think the wait continues.
However, it’s not all bad on the predictions front. I did suggest that this year would be a pivotal one in the relationship between publishers and social media platforms and in many ways this proved to be the case. Here are some of the details in case you missed it.
So what to expect as we move into the 2020s? It’s the era where the world’s population is set to top 8 billion, and India is due to eclipse China’s population by around 2027. Financial markets observers suggest that zero or even negative interest rates are here to stay and in many cases become the norm. Technology experts pinpoint the roll out of 5G technology as being a pivotal moment. It will add trillions of dollars of value to the global economy and supercharge the use of big data to make autonomous driving and smart cities a genuine reality rather than test cases in name only.
In the media and publishing space, quality content and trusted news will continue to be central to any successful business model and media industry analysts do not see any return for third-party cookies, meaning a continued re-shaping of the advertising and marketing landscapes.
Whatever you have planned this holiday season, I wish you a restful and relaxing festive period and look forward to catching up with many of you in 2020. For now, I’ll leave you with a quote that deftly illustrates the pitfalls of the prediction game:
“Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we’ll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the internet. Uh, sure. So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month?” – Clifford Stoll (1995, Newsweek)