2020 Vision: A Climate Crusade!

2020 kicks off a Climate Crusade. No prisoners can be taken.

Oxford Dictionary named “climate emergency” the phrase of the year in 2019. The use of this term skyrocketed by 10,800% between September 2018 and September 2019. Collins Dictionary settled on “climate strike”. The United Nations has named 2020-2030 the “Decade of Ecosystem Restoration”. Greta Thunberg, the Swedish teen climate activist, was named Time magazine’s “Person of the Year”. Scientists have proposed naming this era in our history the “Anthropocene Epoch”, from the Greek “anthropos” meaning “human”. The starting date for this new era will likely be the 1950’s, initiating with the time that radioactive elements were dispersed across the planet by nuclear bomb tests. Other notable markers of this epoch include a proliferation of plastic pollution, ash from power stations, and even the bones left by the global proliferation of the domestic chicken. Our current epoch, the Holocene, is the 12,000 years of stable climate since the last ice age during which all human civilization developed. But the striking acceleration since the mid-20th century of carbon dioxide emissions and sea level rise, the global mass extinction of species, and the transformation of land by deforestation and development mark the end of that slice of geological time. The Earth is so profoundly changed that the Holocene is giving way to the Anthropocene. And we are damaging our planet with such ferocity that we are beginning to threaten our own existence. Nothing short of a Climate Crusade is needed.

So, how do we win the Crusade? The short list goes like this:

1. Know your Enemy and Yourself
2. Gain Critical Mass
3. Seek High Ground
4. Be Disruptive
5. Make Winning the Only Choice

With those as our marching orders, let’s get this Crusade started.

1. Know your Enemy and Yourself

By now, everyone knows that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is at an all-time high, at 415 parts per million (ppm) as measured at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. This spot was chosen for its undisturbed remoteness, which is ideal for recording global atmospheric data. It is literally alone on an island, with no pollution-spewing industry or traffic gridlock emissions found in cities or causing the CO2 numbers to be skewed higher. The “safe” level of CO2 is 350ppm, which the world blew past in 1988.

For personal perspective, let’s look at what the level of CO2 was when you were born, and how much it has increased in your lifetime to the current level of 415ppm:

Your Current Age (Year Born) CO2ppm at Birth % Increase in ppm in your Lifetime

80 (1940) 311 33.4%

40 (1980) 339 22.4%

10 (2010) 389 6.7%

Levels of CO2 in the air are rising faster than ever. In your lifetime, you may have noticed that storms have gotten bigger, wetter and stronger. Perhaps you or your friends or family have developed respiratory issues, fought off more mosquitos and ticks or dealt with increased inflammation that isn’t solely a function of age. Climate scientists and other environmentalists call climate change a “risk multiplier” for health.

The Mauna Loa Observatory has Tracked CO2 Since the 1950’s

How do we know that it’s human-caused? Because humans leave a carbon fingerprint through burning fossil fuels. Isotopes are versions of the same element with a different mass. Carbon has three isotopes; carbon-12, carbon-13 and carbon- 14. The carbon-12 isotope is produced in the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. Scientists have found that the carbon-12 isotope is increasingly prevalent in the air today. This is backed up by research of tree ring and ice core data, which shows the progression of carbon-12 in the air over time. We have met the enemy, and it is us.

2. Gain Critical Mass

Now, CO2 concentrations have been this high before, about 10-15 million years ago, during the Miocene Epoch when mastodons roamed the planet. Temperatures were 6-8 degrees Celsius (10-14 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer and seas were 120 feet higher as there was very little ice cover. It was the start of grasslands and kelp forests. What makes the difference between then and now is the prevalence of the C-12 isotope and the existence of humans. We have never lived through such a climate challenge. Remember, the Climate Crusade is not for the planet, it will continue to exist and revolve around the sun long after we’re gone. The Climate Crusade is for us.

We know which countries produce the highest amounts of climate pollution in the form of CO2 emissions. In order:

• China (27.2% of global emissions)
• United States (14.6%)
• India (6.8%)

What these numbers do not reflect is the per capita contribution of every citizen of each country. Those numbers paint a dramatically different picture:

• United States (16.1 metric tons of CO2 per capita)
• China (8.0 metric tons)
• India (1.9 metric tons)

What does ONE metric ton of CO2 look like? It is the amount contained in a modest, 1250 square-feet ranch home with 13’ ceilings. The sheer number of people in China and India leads to their overall higher emissions. However, Americans drive cars, use electricity, eat beef and fly much more often than people in China or India. Transportation is now the leading source of greenhouse gas emissions in the US at 29% of total emissions, edging out the electricity sector at 28%.

What can we do, individually and collectively, to protect our way of life and our loved ones? Plenty. We need to cut emissions. Science has explained the specific actions we need to take and has indicated it isn’t too late to do so. If there are limitations in keeping warming under catastrophic levels, they are not in the physics of climate change. The challenges lie in the politics and policies leading people and companies to act in ways to reduce emissions. The main way that the US as a country can embark on a Climate Crusade is by actively participating in the Paris Climate Agreement. It’s the landmark environmental accord written in 2015 at the 21st United Nations Climate Change Conference (known as COP21) in Paris. One hundred and ninety-five countries committed to climate adaptation and mitigation actions to reduce their CO2 emissions. Each country has leeway to make reductions in ways that they see fit, that will play to their strengths and that will aim to hold temperature rise under 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with 1.5 degrees the stretch goal. To achieve a 1.5 degree C warming limit, global greenhouse gas emissions will need to fall by 45 per cent by 2030 and plummet to zero by 2050. As the map below shows, every country worldwide has agreed to abide by the Paris Agreement, with one big red exception: the United States.

When have all of the leaders of the world agreed on anything? With the polarizing views of gender, politics, religion, race and sexuality that are rampant today, getting common agreement between countries on anything is difficult. But on climate change, the world acted cohesively, rapidly gaining critical mass. President Obama signed on to the agreement the same day as China in 2016, saying the two countries would “lead by example”. The US committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% from a 2005 baseline by 2025. In 2017, Trump announced the US would leave the agreement, in keeping with many environmental regulations he had dismantled or rolled back under his Administration. The rules of the Agreement state that the US cannot officially back out of it until November 4th, 2020. The good news is that this is one day after the next Presidential election. And, if any future President wants to rejoin, they can. This is the number one thing that we, as a country, can do. All countries in the Agreement share success stories, development ideas and technology innovations. Renewable energy techniques such as solar, wind and geothermal are being implemented, tinkered with, and improved. Costs are coming down. Electric vehicles are popping up on the streets of Norway, the Netherlands, and Sweden prolifically, with the rest of the world slowly gaining ground. Progress is measured and reported transparently. Pollution does not stop at the border of a country or a line drawn on a map which is why a unified approach will be most successful. The world has reached critical mass on climate change, and the US can either join them and lead or remain on the wrong side of history.

3.  Seek High Ground

Literally and figuratively. Well over 200 million people are predicted to be living below sea level by the year 2100. Taking the greatest hits are India, China and other parts of southeast Asia. In the United States, up to 13 million people will be displaced by sea level rise. The Atlantic coast from Florida to NYC is threatened, as are Gulf Coast states like Louisiana and parts of California. Miami Beach, FL, is already used to “sunny day” flooding, which happens due to groundwater rising as the sea comes in. The city is perched upon a water-logged sponge. Mitigation and adaptation efforts require foresight and careful planning, as millions of people will need to be relocated to higher ground. Jakarta, Indonesia, has already begun the process of moving to Borneo due to poor air quality and the fact that the city is sinking, despite seawalls that were erected to protect it. Jakarta does not supply enough drinking water to its citizens, causing residents to rely on wells that take water from shallow aquifers. As the aquifers are drained the ground above them sinks. In the United States, sea level rise isn’t receiving anywhere near the attention it should. Often those most affected are the poorest, and we need to have humanitarian and political aid in place to help them. The same is true for developing nations who suffer the heaviest tolls from pollution and climate changes in the form of droughts, crop failures and flooding. Taking the high ground here means that everyone is treated with “climate equity”, where stronger, more resilient players support those who are weaker.

4.  Be Disruptive

Climate change is not a new discovery, in fact, it is over 100 years old. In 1896 the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius published a new idea. As people and industry burned fossil fuels such as coal and oil, which added carbon dioxide gas to the Earth’s atmosphere, he claimed it would raise the planet’s average temperature. This “greenhouse effect” was only one of many speculations about climate change, however, and received minimal attention. In the 1950’s and 60’s, rivers in industrial areas of America that contained oil and gas slicks caught fire with regularity, culminating with the internationally famous fire on the Cuyahoga River in 1969. That led to the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). You may remember the 1971 television commercial featuring the “Crying Indian”, Iron Eyes Cody. It was produced by a group called Keep America Beautiful, and ended with the statement “People start pollution. People can stop it.” As a high-school senior, I wrote a letter to my Congresswoman lamenting the degraded state of the Chesapeake Bay. Too much nitrogen and phosphorus from field and urban runoff had left vast “dead zones” in the Bay, where nothing lived or grew. The famed blue crab population was in decline, and oysters were being afflicted with the gangster-sounding MSX disease. I asked her to pass tougher laws and regulations to clean it up. Her savvy response was to give me a 2-year scholarship in Marine Biology to the University of Maryland, which I happily accepted. This was the early 1980’s. Life then intervened before I returned to my environmental passion a few years ago, when it became clear that there was nothing more important than protecting our planet and everything that lives on it. My years of complacency were over.

Why? Disruption.

Enter Greta Thunberg and her “School Strikes for the Climate”. Her unwavering efforts every Friday gained hold globally in the course of a year. Climate Reality Leadership Training (led by Al Gore) has more than 20,000 Leaders from over 150 countries who are mobilizing their communities with climate rallies and education. The Extinction Rebellion, which started in the United Kingdom in May of 2018, has galvanized millions of peaceful disruptors in cities from Hong Kong to DC. In 2008, 350.org (referring to the “safe” level of CO2 ppm in the atmosphere) was founded by Harvard-educated environmentalist Bill McKibben. They have launched many successful environmental campaigns including Keystone XL, an ongoing battle to halt an oil sands pipeline between Alberta, Canada and Nebraska that has been notoriously leaky. The US Climate Alliance, which is a coalition of 25 states who are committed to reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement even without the backing of the entire country, continues to gain states and ground. Other movements have more specific goals. The Citizen’s Climate Lobby (CCL) is working to pass legislation on a market-based Carbon Fee and Dividend. The idea is that by making it expensive to pollute, businesses will opt for cleaner energy. The Chesapeake Climate Action Network (CCAN) is a grassroots organization in Maryland, DC and Virginia that is expanding its reach and power. In totality, the Climate Crusade is gaining ground daily.

5.  Make Winning the Only Choice

The Climate Crusade is neither liberal nor conservative, it is simply human. However, there is no sense of urgency from our government and that of many other countries. The 2019 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP25, ended on December 14th in Madrid, Spain. It lasted an extra day so the participating countries could come to agreement on more aggressive emissions reduction goals going forward which they failed to do. They also failed to set up a market-based carbon pricing scheme to hold polluters accountable through their wallets. After holding exhausting talks on these subjects, the leaders of COP25 decided to try again at COP26 in Edinburgh, Scotland in 2020. This is a time when failure is not an option, and when failure will prevail if we run out of time. So, what do we do in the meantime? Countries do not need agreement by all to act aggressively. Science has taught us that there are solutions and has given us hope. We need to move ahead with bold individual and coordinated actions. We need to redesign energy and economic systems so that oil and gas are left in the ground. We need public officials to fear the electorate more than the fossil fuel lobbyists, and pass legislation to guarantee a rapid reduction in emissions. We need to do this for everyone and everything that we love and care for on the planet.

We need a Climate Crusade!