Will 2020 be the turning point the planet needs?

Now that lockdown measures are more flexible in most places and we are slowly getting back the freedom we had before, it might be time to reflect on what happened during this lockdown period. 

We all saw the crystal clear water in Venice, dolphins in the south of Italy, animals taking over the streets in many cities. In other words, the media showed that nature had taken over, thanks to humans being locked into their houses.  We’ve also seen headlines using words such as “massive drop”, “CO2 emissions decrease” and so on. Since both air and land traffic happens only on a minimum and people work remotely from their homes, the emissions per capita should reach a remarkable minimum right? Well, if this was the case, this lockdown would represent a blessing for our planet and the first step towards a more sustainable future? Unfortunately, we have another, inconvenient truth. 

Emissions per capita during lockdown

According to a study published in Nature Climate Change, CO2 emissions had fallen by, on average, 17% worldwide at the beginning of April. In only a few months, demand for energy globally has fallen as the pandemic kept millions of people confined to their homes, and businesses closed in many countries. In fact, reduced transport caused the most important drop in CO2 emissions, as it accounted for a 43% reduction. Concerning power and industries, it also represents a 43% decrease in emissions over the lockdown period. Even though aviation was one of the most affected sectors, it only contributed to lower emissions by 10%, which makes sense if we take into account that planes represent 3% of the world’s emissions.

At the end of the day the yearly decrease of the warming gas will likely be somewhere between 4 and 8%, as emissions have been rising again, since restrictions became more flexible. According to The International Energy Agency (IEA), the world will use 6% less energy this year - equivalent to losing the entire energy demand of India which, as surprising as it might be, could represent the biggest drop in emissions since the second world war. However, scientists say the estimated 4% to 7% decline in emissions for 2020 isn’t nearly enough to combat global warming. Sadly, countries are far from making those necessary changes. The Trump administration is reversing more than 100 environmental regulations after three years in office and China continues to build more coal plants. 

As we just mentioned, it is also important to realise that, as soon as lockdown measures were lifted, CO2 emissions started rising again and will quickly come back to what they were before. While emissions overall are still down on last year’s level, there are fears that as lockdowns around the world ease further in the coming months, carbon from cars could surge to levels higher than before the pandemic as people avoid public transport. Air pollution has not rebounded as fast as carbon dioxide emissions in Europe, according to estimates from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, which found that the expected increase in pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and particles was not yet apparent. However, this could be owing to many factors including the weather. 

On the 8th of April, China finally ended its coronavirus lockdown after more than 10 weeks. While air quality improved dramatically during this time (especially in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak), new data shows it was a short period phenomenon. In fact, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, air pollution is coming back at higher levels than during the same period last year. This was true for nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and fine particulate matter, which suggests a rebound in industrial activity.

China has seen similar spikes after previous economic crises, such as the SARS epidemic and the global financial crisis in 2008. In both cases, the country prioritized “dirty” construction projects and excessive burning of coal in order to revitalize its economy as soon as possible. However, these pollution spikes came before China’s recent attempts to improve air quality and prior to the pandemic, the country was succeeding in it: A study found that six of the air quality improvement policies alone resulted in more than 400,000 lives saved in 2017. The public health impacts of this pollution are urgent, particularly because research has found connections between air pollution and Covid-19 death rates.  

To mention some good news, the European Commission, the executive branch of the European Union, has put forth the world’s greenest stimulus plan — a 750 billion euro economic recovery plan with the goal for the EU to be carbon neutral by 2050. It includes financing for renewable energy, electric vehicle charging and other emissions-friendly projects, including retrofitting old buildings and developing no-carbon fuels like hydrogen. Some countries are also using the pandemic as an opportunity to make their societies more resilient to the looming climate crisis: Germany’s $145 billion stimulus plan devotes about one third of its funds to public transportation, electric vehicles and renewable energy, while France is investing $8.8 billion to help its car industry, with the aim of becoming the main producer of electric vehicles in Europe.  Meanwhile, South Korea has introduced a Green New Deal that would make it the first East Asian country to commit to a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

Moreover, this pandemic also made some people realise that moving around with a bike or public transports can be just as convenient as going by car, if governments improve those means of transport. Which is why, this pandemic could be seen as an opportunity, especially in sectors such as transport. Many countries are currently relocating spaces in the cities, to give more space to pedestrians and bikes, while enabling social distancing. In addition, many companies now realise that having their staff working remotely has many advantages, such as saving everyone a lot of time, that doesn’t need to be spent stuck in traffic for instance. Hopefully, this is the start of sustainable changes in our daily lives and towards a more resilient lifestyle. 

To keep the world on track to stay under 1.5C this century, we need a similar sort of reduction every single year until net-zero emissions are reached around 2050. Such emission-reductions will not happen via lockdowns and restrictions, indeed this crisis has shown us that behavioural changes, such as not flying, reduce drastically our car usage, working from home and so on are not enough. Even though we changed our lifestyle so dramatically, we only achieved a temporary 17% reduction,how much will it take to fight against the 83% remaining? What we need to stay under 1.5C are climate policies that lead to the deployment of clean technologies and reductions in demand for energy.

So will the pandemic's big hit on carbon mean that last year, 2019, could be the year the world finally reached a turning point? Not necessarily, as history shows that economic recoveries are often accompanied by emissions growth.  As an example, the carbon emissions drop that followed the recession in 2008 was followed by a sharp rise of almost 6% in the next year. Something similar could happen over the next couple of years. However, many climate researchers are still optimistic about the future and the critical lessons that this deadly pandemic has taught to our governments regarding the correlation between health and nature. And there are already signals that this time could be different, with groups like the International Monetary Fund and the International Energy Association calling for stimulus plans to be rooted in clean energy growth and other green solutions.

Now the biggest challenge for the world is to ensure the recovery has a green focus.

What we can do as consumers

We are now aware that as individuals, we don’t stand a chance against climate change alone, which doesn’t mean we don’t have to do our part of the job. We need not only a behavioural shift, but also a total change of mentality. We need to realise that the whole world is suffering from climate change, which is caused by too much CO2 and the countries that are affected the most usually don’t contribute to those emissions as much as some developed countries. A simple example, planes do emit a lot of CO2, but when you think about it who flies on a regular basis? Not the people living on the islands that might disappear in a few years… 

One big way to ensure we continue shrinking our carbon footprints is to make note of our new, more eco-friendly habits. And even while we’re waiting for the virus to run its course, there’s a lot we can do to cut our own carbon footprint. But most importantly, we have to understand the importance of even the smallest efforts.

For many of us, the first thing that comes to mind when thinking about reducing our carbon footprint would probably be meat consumption, which will for sure have a great impact, as agriculture represents more or less 10% of global CO2 emissions, but fuel combustion/ power generation and transport account for almost 80% of the emissions, so if you want to have an impact you know where to look. 

Most of our emissions come from burning fossil fuels, such as coal or natural gas to generate electricity, this can explain why emissions have been on the rise for several years. In countries such as China or India, that have been improving in many areas very fast, many people now have electricity, a smartphone, hot water and so on, which results in a rise of electricity demand. 

According to a study, the most meaningful shift we can make is to live car-free, which would save 2,04 tons of CO2 per person each year, compared to 0,8 tons saved by switching to a vegan diet. The same study gives 10 tips to reduce our carbon footprint, such as driving an electric car, flying less, switching to renewable energy, improving our cooking equipment and so on. At the end of the day, all pieces of advice, except one, becoming vegan, concern transport or energy. 

As consumers, it’s essential that we realise our planet can only take in a certain amount of CO2 per year and we should adapt to that number. We can only emit that much CO2 per year if we want to sustain a liveable planet for future generations. Of course, nobody’s perfect, but there are so many aspects of our lives where we can bring some small changes; on our plate, on the road, in our home, what we buy and what we do. 

On the road/in the sky: 

• Drive and fly less
• If buying a new car, might be a chance to look into alternatives, such as hybrid, electric, etc
• Carpool, regularly check your car, don’t weigh your car down

On our plate: 

• Eat less meat
• Watch out for what you eat: Most emissions happen during food production and not during transportation, so what you eat is more relevant than where it comes from, obviously eating local is twice better. For instance, eating only locally produced food for a year would save the CO2 emitted by a car driving 1000 miles, while eating only one vegetarian meal a week for a year would save the emissions for driving 160 miles more than that. 
• Waste less: food waste is a big source of CO2 emissions; we produce food, ship it to the other side of the world and then it ends up in the bin. This represents a massive waste of resources. 

At home: 

• Turn it off: turn off lights, appliances, anything when you’re not using it.
• Turn down the heat: wear some more jumpers if needed, but don’t push your heater too high. 
• Switch to LED: LED uses on average 85% less energy than conventional lights, plus LED is cheaper and lasts longer!
• Choose your energy supplier wisely: if you have the chance to switch to a renewable energy supplier, don’t hesitate. 
• Recycle: as easy as it seems, recycling can really make a difference if it’s done properly, so pay attention when sorting your waste. 
• Replace too old appliances, such as fridges, and switch to energy efficient products. 
• Make your home more energy efficient: Simple things such as isolation can impact your energy bill drastically. On top of that, planting trees around the house or installing a cold roof can also be looked into. 

What we buy: 

• Buy second hand, or sustainably made clothes: We don’t always realise it but clothing has a huge environmental impact, cotton and other fabrics need a lot of water to be grown and chemicals to be dyed. 
• Prefer quality over quantity: it’s better to pay more for something that will last and is of good quality than buying cheap stuff that won’t last.
• Always bring a reusable bag when shopping: we’ve all seen plastic bags in the sea or at the beach, it is a massive threat to marine life and it’s easy to prevent. 

What we do: 

In addition to changing some of our habits, it is also important to exercise the rights we have as citizens. As said before, consumers alone are not enough to bring the massive change that is needed today for our planet. Therefore, exercising our right is the only way we have to try and make things change on a higher level. 

• Take climate change into account when you vote: our vote is the most powerful thing we have as citizens, so make good use of it and know who cares and who doesn’t before choosing who to vote for. 
• Know your facts: by being informed and aware of what’s going on, you’ll be able to explain the situation better, but also to help others understand it better and realise how urgent it became to change. 
• Help in your community and let your voice be heard: find local action groups, join manifestations and help how you can around you. 
• Suggest: don’t hesitate to go and talk to your local representative and suggest changes that could be made in order to reduce the carbon footprint of your town or city. 
• Switch your search engine: it might be surprising, but every google search (or any other search engine) results in CO2 emissions. See for yourself: Click here (or https://www.janavirgin.com/CO2/)

Every Google search requires the same amount of energy as turning on a 60-watt light bulb for 17 seconds. Yes, even though we work on the “cloud”, it all relies on tons of servers, connected with a lot of cables and all this needs energy to run, which is often produced from fossil fuels. We tend to forget that the internet is based on interconnected physical infrastructures that consume energy and in other words resources. Google only, with its 3.5 billions researches everyday, accounts for 40% of the internet’s carbon footprint.

All this to say, switching search engines can have a very great impact and is so easy to do. Here are some recommendations (there are a lot of alternatives, just look it up and you will surely find one that meets your needs) 

• Ecosia
• Lilo
• Give Water
• Ekoru
• Everyclick

This is probably a lot to process and we can’t take on all those actions at the same time, but as a Anne-Marie Bonneau one day said: “We don’t need a handful of people doing zero waste perfectly, we need millions of people doing it imperfectly”

This saying can be applied to anything, if millions of people put their small efforts together, it will have a great impact. 

What businesses/governments have to do 

As mentioned earlier, even if we all proceed to major changes in our daily life, protecting the planet must also become the priority of all decision makers and business, if we want to achieve anything close to the Paris Agreement objectives. 

The covid-19 crisis included many unforeseen environmental benefits to us and our common goal should now be to build on this. Various experts agree that the post-covid time would be the ideal moment to make feasible green changes happen on a large scale. Therefore, both governments and corporations will have to invest in sustainable businesses and technologies. As well as green investments, we will need development within our legislation regarding critical environmental aspects such as the emission of greenhouse gases, pollution as a whole, the loss of biodiversity, etc. . 

We can say that in the last few years, there has been an increasing awareness from businesses and many of them are trying to become more responsible. A very good example of this is the creation of the Bcorp certification, back in 2006. The companies that are certified as B Corporations are companies that meet the highest standards in social and environmental performance, while having a balance between profit and purpose and being transparent. As of today, more than 3,300 companies in 150 countries have received that certification. 

Some companies, especially startups are already taking the lead and directing their business model towards CO2. On one hand some startups are focussing on improving air quality. We haven’t mentioned it here but of course being exposed to so much CO2 can have an impact on our health. For example, Airlabs offer solutions for air management inside, outside, but also in public transports and inside vehicles, those small spaces can contain many particles, cleaning them ensures a safe journey for the passengers and the drivers. 

Purcity transforms buildings into large scale air purifiers. By using GapS panels, which are recyclable and also harvest the rain, Purcity enables buildings to remove NOx, CO2 and other harmful substances from the air we breathe.

On the other hands, some companies are focussing on calculating the CO2 impact of every decision we make, in order to know how we can reduce it. Technologies can help us with that, indeed data can give us many insights which will help us understand and reduce our carbon footprint, this is Tomorrow’s mission, to offer climate action driven by data. 

Furthermore, many tools have been put in place to allow everyone of us to calculate our carbon footprint and become more aware of how our actions influence the planet. Either as an app, such as The United Nation Environmental App, Zero Carbon, The Extra Mile and My Planet, or online, Carbon Footprint or WWF Carbon Footprint Calculator.

So we can’t deny things are changing. However, the problem is that 20 firms are responsible for a third of global CO2 Emissions and they should be the one making the most efforts. 

One potential solution to reduce emissions would be a tax on each tonne of emitted CO2. Giving it a price would on one side make businesses put more effort into their reduction of emissions as that would include costs and on the other side it would provide massive space to implement (sustainable) innovation. The principle is simple. But to make the tax really effective, the price must be on a level that would hurt business in the long run if they keep on emitting CO2. Sweden for instance introduced such a tax model already in 1991 and until 2013 they both reduced their CO2 emissions by 14 percent while increasing their gross domestic product by 60 percent. The Scandinavian country put the highest price by far on CO2 compared to other European states. And this is a signal going into the right direction. Only if the prices for a company’s emissions are on a level that it would really hurt them, the tax can be a major driver for the green transition. 

Other countries, such as Germany, have also been taking the lead on a carbon tax. On May 20th of this year, Germany’s cabinet agreed on a new price of 25€ per emitted ton of CO2, which will be applied from January 2021 to the transport and heat sectors, in other words the main contributors to CO2 emissions.

At first, the price was 10€ per ton and meant to gradually increase to 35€ by 2025. Now, the 2025 price will be 55€ per ton. If we take into account that transport and heating represent +/- 62% of Germany’s emissions, which accounts to 775,752,190 tons, this tax would represent 12,159,900,000€, the point will be made and protecting the planet by emitting less through new innovation, supply chain optimization, etc will be the best and cheapest option for companies. While governments can implement such taxes and “force” companies to become more responsible, companies should also realise how important and powerful they are in this fight. 

Right now, many companies are thinking about reducing cost because of the corona crisis, but they need to take a green lens while doing that, to make sure all the decisions that are taken also reflect the future needs of CO2 reductions and better business models. 

There are some lessons to be learned from the covid crisis. First of all, the supply chain, which might be a company’s weakness while trying to reduce their carbon footprint, due to the lack of visibility over the whole chain. During lockdown, many companies had to rethink their supply chain and many of them included more local suppliers, or gave them a higher business share. Working with fewer and more local suppliers will be beneficial for both sides, as the supplier will have some sort of guaranteed business and as the business share is higher, the company will have more leverage to negotiate the contract and impose renewable energies or emissions reductions for instance. Moreover, some companies also started using 3D printers to overcome the lack of certain components. In either case, this will massively reduce a company’s footprint and should be kept after lockdown. 

Even though most companies are currently dealing with the covid crisis and trying to assess how they will keep the business afloat, everyone should keep in mind that climate change could easily become the next covid crisis. Therefore, companies should start undertaking scenarios analysis, assessing risks, and seek new investments related to a transition to a low-carbon industry. Unlike covid, we won’t find a vaccine against climate change and it won’t last for a year, even if we reduce our emissions drastically, we will still see the effects of CO2 on the planet for years. 

To cut a long story short...

There is a lot of work ahead and no one can do this alone. If we don’t get everyone to do its part achieving something might be hard. However it is not impossible! If we all put our efforts together we have the power to change the situation for the better, by undertaking small actions, educating one another and not trying to be perfect we will get there. This unprecedent crisis has for sure changed the way we see things and hopefully brought many of us to question our current lifestyle, let's take advantage of this opportunity to bring the change and focus on what really matters.

Let’s not be fooled and think “emerging countries” are emitting more than we do, if we look at per capita emissions, which is the only reliable way to compare, the story is a whole lot different. Anyway it is not a question of the country, even though we’ve been harming the planet for much longer than India or China, everyone has to take part, but we, as “developed countries”, should take the lead and show the way towards a more sustainable future for all nations.

Co-written by Mathilde Hambye, Franciska Iglodi, Jonas Kufky & Christopher Storey

Special mentions and thanks for the references to:

Austin, F., & Bailey, R. (2020, April 28). How COVID-19 can help firms reduce their emissions for good. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/how-businesses-covid-19-strategies-can-help-with-the-climate-battle-ahead/

Funes, Y. (2020, May 18). China’s Air Pollution Is Now Worse Than Pre-Coronavirus Levels. Gizmodo. https://earther.gizmodo.com/chinas-air-pollution-is-already-worse-than-pre-coronavi-1843520326/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Harrabin, R. (2020, May 20). Top 10 tips for combating climate change revealed. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52719662

Harvey, F. (2020, May 19). Lockdowns trigger dramatic fall in global carbon emissions. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/19/lockdowns-trigger-dramatic-fall-global-carbon-emissions

McGrath, M. (2020, May 6). Climate Change and Coronavirus: Five charts about the biggest carbon crash. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52485712

Quito, A. (2018, May 25). Find out the environmental impact of your Google searches and internet usage. Quartz. https://qz.com/1267709/every-google-search-results-in-co2-emissions-this-real-time-dataviz-shows-how-much/

Schulz, F. (2020, May 20). German cabinet agrees CO2 price of €25 from January 2021. Www.Euractiv.Com. https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/german-cabinet-agrees-to-a-co2-price-of-e25-from-january-2021/