2020 Social (Digital) Trends: Video, Commerce, The Human Attention Span & The State of the Facebook Monopoly

I started this article out as social trends, but quickly realized that digital and social are increasingly intersected and shouldn't be siloed. The landscape is, of course, constantly evolving, making it increasingly difficult to make any predictions about the future, but using larger trends and applying them to the ecosystem, we can make a few assumptions about what will happen in 2020.

Humans will max out time with media - making attention more fragmented than ever before and the second screen a necessity to win.

Time spent with media has essentially plateaued, estimated to increase only 0.51% 2019-2020. The only medium actually driving this increase is digital, estimated to increase 2.97% 2019-2020, while television declines 2.63%, radio declines 1.10% and print declines 3.96%. In 2020, people will spend an average of 6.7 hours with digital media per day. The total time spent with all of these mediums will hit 12.5 hours per day. For perspective, the average human spends about 16 hours awake. Multitasking is a large factor driving up time spent, which means the media we deliver our messages to increasingly distracted audiences. According to the 2018 Nielsen Total Audience Report, 45% of respondents watched TV while using digital devices “very often” or “always.”

Unless humans decide to stop sleeping in 2020, this means our attention spans have to get more fragmented, and the data is proving it. The Technical University of Denmark did a study on the longevity or trajectory of the top 50 Twitter hashtags and found that the average time a hashtag stayed in the top 50 decreased from 17.5 to 11.9 hours from 2013-2016.

You may have heard that the human attention span is lower than a goldfish - but, there is actually evidence to support that our attention isn't necessarily shrinking, it's evolving. So, to summarize, humans are consuming more mediums simultaneously and therefore becoming more selective about where they are spending time and the content they are willing to consume consume. To win in 2020, marketers absolutely have to capture the second screen. Luckily for us, there are more advanced ways to do this than ever before. Extend television reach with CTV or social video, build TV exposed audiences to either include or exclude (include to extend frequency, exclude to reach solely cord cutters).

Cord Cutters and Cord Nevers will encroach on the television ecosystem, driving marketers to evolve their video budgets

Time spent per day with subscription OTT (over-the-top) video is expected to hit 42.56 minutes, increasing 10.7%, in 2020. This means OTT is growing faster than time spent with audio, social networks and the online video category as a whole.

Further, pay TV (linear TV) households are expected to decrease to 82.9MM (-4.2%) while non-pay TV households (i.e. cord cutters and cord nevers) are increasing to 44.3MM (+10.2%) in 2020.

There is clearly enough data to support that marketers should be diversifying television dollars beyond linear. We've also already covered attention becoming more fragmented, meaning there is not just one place beyond linear to reach an audience. This is also true within the subscription video market, in 2019, 45% of respondents report using 3+ services, compared to only 13% in 2016. This is evident with the launch of Disney Plus in Q4 2019, topping 15 million app downloads. Even with this scale, it is still not slowing down Netflix. Did I mention attention is diversified?

Ok, so how the hell are marketers supposed to distribute a video budget in 2020? Like any strong media plan, start with where your audience is spending time. Depending on demographic, audience behavior, objective, and budget, leverage a mix of linear, CTV, digital video and social video.

Since the article was originally titled "Social Trends," here is a quick reference for ensuring you are maximizing your social video strategy. Many miss the mark because they are placed in the wrong experience or built for the wrong medium.

The state of the walled garden - Facebook's monopoly will be challenged in 2020

I won't spend too much time on this one because I did write a separate article on TikTok (and let's face it, have likely already overwhelmed you with charts in this article alone).

First, the state of the Facebook monopoly. Going into 2020, the monopoly is still relatively strong. Facebook has faced some privacy challenges, but they have still made some incredibly smart acquisitions (like Instagram and WhatsApp) that ensure they have the largest share of global social users (2.5 billion+ to be exact). But, for the first time, we are seeing a platform come after the Facebook ecosystem that globally might have the power to start to encroach on its growth - TikTok.

This is huge for a player relatively new to the space, TikTok launched in 2017 and merged with Musical.ly in 2018. To put this in perspective, TikTok has 52%+ more users than Twitter, Reddit and Pinterest and 61% more users than Snapchat, all platforms that have been around for years longer. With TikTok's share of Generation Z and rapid growth, it is the first competitor that may actually be able to eventually outpace the Facebook ecosystem. Plus, TikTok's 500 million number was reported in June 2018, and could very easily hit 1 billion in 2020.

Social will try to cut into the mobile payment ecosystem, but trust will be a huge obstacle

I can't write about 2020 trends without talking about social commerce. I would argue that 2020 will be a pivotal year for social commerce because it is the first time it is truly attempting to encroach on the mobile payment market. Facebook announced Facebook Pay in November 2019 - providing users with a secure way to transact within their family of apps. Part of this will allow peer-to-peer payments in Messenger (*cough cough* Venmo or Zelle). Payment in messaging isn't a new concept globally. According to Business of Apps, 92% of people in China's biggest cities reported using WeChat Pay or Alipay as their primary method of payment in 2017, and 900 million people use WeChat Pay on a monthly basis. Given Messenger has 1.3 billion global users, Facebook Pay could have significant global growth in 2020.

Facebook Pay will not only allow peer-to-peer transaction, it will also allow business transactions within their Facebook (and likely ultimately) Instagram pages and within ad units like the dynamic product ad. The concept is making commerce more seamless - allowing users to convert without ever being directed outside of the ad or post experience.

Since social is inherently mobile, and mobile commerce continues to grow, integrating payment could definitely prove out for Facebook. According to The Washington Post, 73% of millennials want to eventually be able to make all of their payments with a mobile phone. Further, 70% of respondents believed mobile payments will be secure enough to overtake the use of cash and credit cards by 2030 - but that's 10 years away.

eMarketer forecasts that the mobile payment transaction value will hit $130.36 billion in 2020, a 31.8% increase from 2019.

There is clearly a huge market for mobile payment, and with the global reach of Facebook, it is entirely possible that they can start to gain share of billions in transaction value. However, Facebook will face a huge obstacle in 2020 that may prevent them from this growth: privacy.

Vibes reports that 65% of smartphone owner respondents say "security concerns about mobile wallet" is a barrier to trying the technology. A poll by NBCNews found that 60% of respondents don't trust Facebook with their personal information. Taken alone, it really isn't that compelling, but when compared to other powerhouses, Facebook is going to face a greater challenge with trust than the other current players in the mobile payment market. The same study found that 28% of respondents don't trust Amazon and 37% don't trust Google with their personal data - significantly less than Facebook's 60%. So, assuming Facebook can make headway to gain consumer trust and continue to prove out the secure product, it is possible that Facebook Pay could become a significant player in 2020, but they have their work cut out for them.

The bottom line:

1. Time is more fragmented, more digital, and more mobile
2. Cord cutters and cord nevers will be a powerhouse in 2020, video will have to evolve
3. Facebook's monopoly will be challenged in 2020 by TikTok
4. Social will try to win mobile payment, but will first have to gain trust

Sources:

• The Washington Post - The Economies of Change
• 2018 Nielsen Total Audience Report
• Entrepreneur - Sorry Goldfish: People's Attention Spans Aren't Shrinking, They're Evolving
• Variety - Disney Plus Tops 15 Million App Downloads, Still Hasn't Slowed Down Netflix
• eMarketer Q4 Video Trends Report
• eMarketer Social Media Update December 2019
• eMarketer US Mobile Payment Users 2019
• FastCompany - More than 60% of Americans don't trust Facebook with their personal information