THE 2020 PREAKNESS – MORE AUTHENTIC THAN THE DERBY? By MARK SHRAGER

This next sentence is going to sound strange, so let’s get it out of the way now. This coming Saturday, at Pimlico Racecourse, the Maryland Jockey Club will present the 2020 Preakness, the third jewel of racing’s Triple Crown. 

Yep, that sounds strange, all right.

But then, what is there in the sporting world that hasn’t been rendered strange in the Year of COVID-19? 7-inning games, a 66-game season, millionaire players opting out, National League designated hitters, ballparks full of spectators disguised as empty seats? Major League Baseball’s got ‘em. An entire season in a Florida bubble? The NBA made it happen. An official league game postponed from Sunday to Monday – or possibly Tuesday, we’ll let you know when we figure it out? The National Football League is working on it. The President of the United States demanding that the Big 10 play football? We all saw it happen. A 9-furlong Belmont Stakes, contested before empty stands as the first race of the Triple Crown? Yes, 2020 brought us that, too. 

We may not ever see its like again – let’s hope that’s the case – but in 2020, we saw it all.

So why not the Preakness as the year’s Triple Crown climax? To cite the words of one personage of prominence in this one-of-a-kind year, “It is what it is.” And since that’s probably as good as it’s going to get, let’s stop lamenting sports in 2020 – at least long enough to figure out which of the eleven Preakness entrants is most likely to win the thing.

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Mark Shrager and Diane Crump team up to tell the inspiring story of the first woman to ride in the Kentucky Derby, in Diane Crump: A Horse-Racing Pioneer’s Life in the Saddle, now available at Amazon.com and other on-line booksellers, and soon to be carried at major bookstores

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The almost certain fan favorite will be Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, the Bob Baffert trainee last seen at Churchill Downs, pulling away from Tiz the Law in the final stages of the Run for the Roses. Authentic has won four times in 2020 – the Sham Stakes and the San Felipe at Santa Anita, the Haskell at Monmouth, and the Derby under the Twin Spires. All four victories were earned in wire-to-wire fashion. The one race Authentic didn’t lead early, the Santa Anita Derby, he lost.

So the single most important question about the Preakness could well be whether Authentic can again storm to the lead directly out of the starting gate. And at best, the correct answer may be a very qualified maybe, since the Preakness has drawn at least three starters capable of slugging it out on the early lead with the Derby champion. No, make that four.

Those four are Art Collector, the filly Swiss Skydiver (pictured), Bob Baffert’s other Preakness starter, Thousand Words (which was scratched moments before the Derby when he fell in the Churchill Downs saddling area, flattening a stable hand) and NY Traffic. Each is worthy of discussion as a potential stumbling block for Authentic.

Art Collector, which has won his last five starts, has two wire-to-wire wins in that span, and also owns a victory over Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass Stakes. Swiss Skydiver won the Santa Anita Oaks and the Gulfstream Park Oaks from flagfall to finish, and Thousand Words won the Shared Belief Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion, with the very good 3-year-old Honor A.P. in futile pursuit. NY Traffic has tended to stalk the leaders rather than take them on from the start, but stalking trips haven’t put him in the winner’s circle so far, so perhaps a change of strategy will be in order.

It is impossible to know which of these will attempt to wrest the lead from Authentic, or whether any of them will actually be able to do it. But it is equally difficult to imagine that Authentic will be allowed the luxury of a nearly undisputed early lead such as he enjoyed in the Derby. If not, can he withstand an early challenge and still hold off the rest of the field? It is a good question.

The guess here is that one or two will put pressure on Authentic, and the rest will sit back and wait as events unfold. My personal top choices to challenge for the early lead are NY Traffic and Art Collector, the former because he has been unsuccessful racing off the pace, the latter because he is inherently the fastest of the rest. And is it likely that Ken McPeek, trainer of Swiss Skydiver, is going to instruct jockey Robby Albarado to sacrifice his filly’s energies early in the race, in an attempt to run the socks off Authentic? Or that Baffert will attempt to use Thousand Words to bring down his own stable’s Derby winner?  Hardly.

There are others in here, Jesus’ Team and Pneumatic and Liveyourbeastlife, with the speed to contribute a stalking trip, but they all seem a bit outclassed. And if you want to talk about REALLY outclassed, let’s mention the stretch-running contingent: Excession, Mr. Big News and Max Player. Excession last raced in March, Mr. Big News ran what will almost certainly be the race of his lifetime with his distant third-place finish in the Derby, and Max Player hasn’t run a big race since his Withers Stakes victory in February. One of these will likely charge home, surprise us all, and get fourth, but I have no idea which one it might be. Well, not Excession. One of the other two.

For me, the Preakness winner is the filly, Swiss Skydiver, laying just off the pace early, then racing past Authentic and Art Collector in the final strides. She proved in the Alabama Stakes last August that the mile-and-three-sixteenths Preakness distance is within her scope. Authentic, also proven at the distance, should hang on for second, with Thousand Words a non-challenging third. Let’s give Max Player fourth, a nose ahead of a tired Art Collector. I’ll also include Mr. Big News in the fourth slot of my superfecta tickets. Someone’s gotta finish fourth, right?

A filly Preakness winner? It’s happened before. I think it’s going to be yet another of those unanticipated sporting outcomes of 2020, the year of the sports oddity.