2020 NFL Draft: Trade Theories
NFL Draft Theories
With the Super Bowl all wrapped up, the NFL offseason begins, and our focus shifts to free agency and more importantly, the NFL Draft. Last year I published an NFL Mock Draft which I believe was pretty accurate for my first try. Obviously there were some misses, as every draft analyst has, but there were some impressive hits which I was really proud of.
If there was one weakness in my mock last year however, it was mock trades that never happened, and in turn changed the dynamic of our prognostication.
I don’t care how high profile of a draft expert you are, or if you are a famous analyst, absolutely nobody knows what trades are going to go down on draft night. It’s unpredictable.
That’s why this year, rather than including trades in the mock draft, I have decided to publish a separate article with some NFL Draft Trade theories that I’ve come up with. Please be aware that these are theories, and although some of them appear far-fetched, that’s what makes the NFL Draft so much fun to cover. Without further ado, here are my NFL Draft Trade Theories.
#1. Cowboys trade with Bengals
Okay, we all know that Jerry Jones likes to make a splash, and what better way to make a splash than a trade on draft night. This is what I envision this trade to look like:
First off, Cowboys sign Dak to a multi-year deal.
Cowboys trade away: Dak Prescott, 1st round pick (17th overall), 2nd round pick (51st overall)
Bengals Trade away: 1st round pick (1st overall)
Why this make sense for the Cowboys:
A) You don’t have to pay for Dak, so you pay and keep Amari Cooper
B) Jerry Jones makes a ‘splash’ in the draft and gets their QB for the future.
C) Surround Joe Burrow with weapons to succeed: Great O-Line, Zeke, Cooper.
D) Can use later draft picks to select other needs (Safety, Tight End, Cornerback)
Why this makes sense for the Bengals:
A) You have your QB for the future, and you know exactly what you’re going to get.
à I believe that Dak has hit his peak, and you are getting a fringe top 10 QB in the league for the next few years. At the end of the day, every draft pick is uncertain. Personally, I believe that Burrow will succeed in the NFL, but why even take a chance?
B) Burrow has the potential to fail in Cincinnati because of a lack of weapons
Let’s be frank here, Burrow really doesn’t have many options on Cincinnati. An aging and injury prone AJ Green is a nice target, but aside from that, the Bengals lack any kind of offensive playmakers. Burrow will have trouble producing in Cincinnati.
With this trade, the Bengals receive an established QB in Dak and now have 3 picks in the top 51 to address the many holes in the Bengals roster.
I truly believe that this trade is possible, and will benefit both teams. I’m not a Cowboys fan by any means, but Joe Burrow fits the mold for exactly what Jerry Jones is looking for. A young, inexpensive playmaker to glue all the pieces together. With this move, the Cowboys could capitalize on the weakest division in football and become a staple in the playoffs for years to come.
#2. Panthers trade with Bengals
The Bengals trading the 1st overall pick will be a recurring theme throughout this article because I believe that Cincinnati has more than one glaring hole on their roster, and is more likely to trade for more picks. This draft is loaded with skill position players, and the Bengals would love to have an opportunity to capitalize and address multiple needs in one draft.
Panthers trade away: Cam Newton, 1st round pick (7th overall), 2nd round pick (38)
Bengals trade away: 1st round pick (1st overall)
This trade is similar to the one with the Cowboys with some alterations. The Bengals receive 2 picks that are each 10 picks higher than the ones given to them by the Cowboys. This could be a huge draw for Cincinnati, given their need for talent in multiple areas. A 7th overall pick yields a pro-bowler far more frequently than a 17th overall pick and a top 40 pick gives you 1st round talent (almost), whereas a top 50 pick may not.
The only catch is that Cam is a little washed up and is coming off an injury riddled season, and back to back losing seasons, while Dak is only getting better. At the end of the day, Cincinnati needs a solid QB to be better than a 2 win team. How much better is Cam than Andy Dalton at this point? Not that much. Dak is a much more intriguing piece in this deal. It depends what the Bengals scouting team believes they can get with these draft pieces to determine which deal they like better.
Why this makes sense for the Bengals:
Bengals get a QB for the future by trying to restore Cam’s career
Also get an opportunity to fill the gaps in their roster with 3 picks in the top 40.
Why this makes sense for the Panthers:
Sure the Panthers also have some massive holes in their roster as well, but none bigger than QB. Will Grier seemed no better than average, and it would be silly to waste Christian Mccafrey’s talent on a team with no offensive catalyst. Be honest, what better weapon is there on offense for a rookie QB than CMC?
#3. Jags trade with Bengals
This may be an unpopular opinion, but I believe the Jags may only be a couple of pieces away from winning their division. It was only two years ago that they were a blown call away from making the Super Bowl with Blake Bortles. Just imagine they get a gamer at QB.
Jags Trade Away: Gardner Minshew, 1st round pick (9), and 1st round pick (20)
Bengals Trade Away: 1st round pick (1)
Why this makes sense for the Jags:
Losing Jalen Ramsey hurt, but the Jags still have Aj Bouye and Jarrod Wilson in the secondary which isn’t bad, and are primarily in a rush-heavy division with the Titans and Colts in the mix. Jags pass rush is young and athletic, Myles Jack is a hybrid linebacker that seems like he’s everywhere all at once, and their offense is a QB away from being pretty damn good.
Leonard Fournette, DJ Chark, Dede Westbrook and Marquise Lee would give Burrow some solid options right off the bat. Not to mention an adequate offensive line that should give Burrow just enough time to make plays.
It hurts to trade two 1st round picks and fan-favourite Gardner Minshew, I’ll be the first to admit it. But when you have an opportunity to get the one of the best college QB’s ever and keep their picks in every other round, you can surround Burrow with some talent in the draft, and turn this offense into an explosive one.
Trading Minshew also allows the Jags to keep Foles and mentor Burrow in year 1. It doesn’t matter who it is, a year learning from a veteran as a backup can help even the best of QB’s (Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady etc.). Superbowl MVP, Nick Foles, can be that mentor figure for Burrow and set him up for years of future success.
Why this makes sense for the Bengals:
The Bengals clearly need help at more positions than just QB. This trade not only gives the Bengals an above-average QB on a rookie deal, but they also get 2 additional top 20 picks to draft playmakers and address some of the gaps in their roster.
A successor to AJ Green can be selected, as well as a dominant defensive piece, and voila, the Bengals suddenly have improved in more areas than just one. The Bengals need assets and this trade is optimal in giving them exactly that.
#4. Giants trade with Chargers
Okay, so this might surprise a few people, but just remember these are all theories. With the Chargers openly stating that they are moving on from Philip Rivers, there is a gaping hole in an otherwise well rounded roster. I think the Chargers make a move to grab a QB.
Giants trade away: 1st round pick (4)
Chargers trade away: 1st round pick (6), 3rd round pick (71), 5th round pick (152)
Why this makes sense for the Giants:
I believe it’s almost a lock that the Giants draft an offensive lineman to protect their prized possession, Daniel Jones. At 4, I think the Giants will most likely take the 1st offensive lineman on the board, whether that be (Mekhi Becton, Tristan Wirfs, or Andrew Thomas). Each of these guys rank high (in my books at least) and you can get at least 1 of these guys regardless if you draft at 4 or at 6. Adding a few late round picks to add some youth and depth could be very beneficial.
Why this makes sense for the Chargers:
I think the gap between Tua and Herbert is worth more than a 3rd and 5th round pick. Tua shows so much promise as an NFL QB, and if he stays healthy has the highest ceiling out of any QB in this draft. It is almost certain that the Dolphins take Tua at pick #5, so rather than reach on a QB that would probably need a couple of years until he becomes an established starter at 6 (Herbert), the Chargers should trade up a couple of spots and take Tua, someone who is ready to make an impact now.
Chargers also have two 4th round picks, so they would still be able to make 2 mid-round selections.
#5. Giants trade with Raiders
Giants trade: 1st round pick (4)
Raiders trade: 1st round pick (12), 1st round pick (19), 3rd round pick (81)
Why this makes sense for the Giants:
This would be more of a risk for the Giants, but the haul that they can yield from the Raiders may be worth it.
By trading out of the top 10, the Giants may not get an opportunity to select one of the top offensive linemen. But even if they don’t grab an O-Lineman at 12, a top WR could be a tremendous help for Daniel Jones at either pick 12 or 19. All in all, 3 additional picks in the top 100 could really help the Giants improve in multiple areas.
Why this makes sense for the Raiders:
Is Derek Carr the guy? He might be, and I am a Derek Carr fan. But John Gruden and Mayock would also really like a QB on a rookie deal who can create on offense. Tua would be the pick at 4, and he would excel in the silver and black with Alabama teammate Josh Jacobs being a centerpiece in the Raider’s offense.
It may seem like they are giving up a lot, but everyone knows that if you want a 1st round QB, you’re going to have to give up a lot. Nobody likes to make a splash quite like Gruden & Mayock. They take chances, and I think they pull the trigger to get their QB.
If there is anything that this Super Bowl taught us, it is that no matter how good your team is, superior QB play will more than likely prevail. That’s why it is never a surprise to see teams overpay a QB in free agency, or trade valuable assets to move up in the draft and take the QB of the future, even if that entails ‘cleaning house’.
All in all, it’s safe to say that I am excited for the NFL draft. There are bound to be major trades, surprises, and some kind of aggressive move from a GM. There really is nothing like it.
Stay tuned for my NFL Mock Draft and more NFL articles.
Dave Monaco