Will 2020 Bring Insight To The Video Business?

2020 is upon us and with more than a slight twist of irony, I thought I would assemble my own personal hindsight list based on what I’ve learned (or at least observed) during the course of the past year or so.

MEASUREMENT seems to be the digital equivalent of abs. Everyone wants them. Many claim to have them. Few show them in public. When they are revealed they always look amazing. The thing about measurement is that everyone should be using the same ruler. That makes identifying “good” or “bad” performance far more palatable. Whether your content is premium or ad supported, everyone needs to make sure they can show profitability. Measurement shows views, uniques, trick functions (if that matters to you), long and short tail value and many more elements including whether those who watched bothered to stick around for the closing credits.

CONSOLIDATION continues to generate a lot of excitement. While it makes for amazing fodder in my newsfeed or when reading trade publications, it seldom results in good news for the people involved. The past year plus has seen many companies invest in content by merging, acquiring or investing in studios with large libraries. This gives a great deal of visibility to catalogs of all sizes and variations. Sadly, it also results in downsizing of workforces which leaves a lot of skilled professionals unemployed. People can throw around terms like “redundancy” but I’ve seen a lot of these acquisitions result in bad decisions made by surviving staff members who clearly have little insight into the brand legacy of the acquired companies. 

RETROSPECTIVE LEARNING appears to be going by the wayside. There is such a need for quick pivots and instant change that no one seems interested to determine how similar “changes” and new product rollout was greeted in similar circumstances in the past. When Comcast introduced Video On Demand (VOD) almost 20 years ago, they had the benefit of more than a decade of experience with transactional behavior from Pay Per View (PPV). How much did they rely on that history? Did it inspire any changes to their product design or marketing? Did they factor PPV pricing when they explored how to price VOD? There are far smarter people involved than I. You might consider asking them. Then again that would suggest that retrospective learning might survive.

CONTENT IS KING and always will be. Fox brought back “The X Files” and NBC had their “Will & Grace” revival. Disney+ seems to be targeting a younger demo with their “Lizzie McGuire” reboot. Legacy broadcasters have a rich history when it comes to franchises they can tap into. However, nothing beats innovation. Streaming has brought shockingly great series like “Stranger Things”, “Orange Is The New Black”, “The Crown”, “Russian Doll”, “Seven Seconds”, “13 Reasons Why”, “The Handmaid’s Tale”, “Transparent”, “The Man In The High Castle”, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” and more. These franchises are closer to the quality of premium cable networks like HBO and Showtime than they are broadcast networks. They’re also being “binged” in a weekend and changing the culture of TV viewing. Broadcast has to look beyond the simple “Magnum P.I.” reboot if it hopes to compete.

ENGINEERING and ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE are “must have” elements in this world of IOT (Internet Of Things). However, relationships and human beings will establish relationships with actual human beings who are a vital part of your ecosystem – that includes anyone working in a world of any or all technology. People do business with people they enjoy doing business with. Brands that fail to humanize their outreach will be forced to survive on tech alone. I wouldn’t wish that on any company.

ALTERNATE FACTS have sadly infiltrated the world in more ways than anyone should have hoped or imagined. We have too many people learning “facts” from internet and social media memes and bloggers with zero expertise. No matters what the topic is you can readily find a source suggesting that goat hair cures insomnia or that 45 years ago something happened that changed the world. People quickly reshare that information on social media or even here on LinkedIn without making any effort to verify the validity of the claim (or seemingly without considering the credibility of the original source at all). Now you can simply pick your truth and find someone to back it up (or even create one). Eventually you will rally at least a dozen or possibly a few million supporters to back you up.

Nothing can replace HUMAN INTERACTION to grow your business with clients. I might add that you need human beings who have the ability to manage relationships, extract information, connect with other humans at companies you do business with, and who are committed to representing your brand credibly and professionally. Human beings can get you competitive data, meaningful face time, speculation (yes – that alone has value), and can keep your brand at the forefront of any conversation that happens within the walls of any external organization.

EROSION is real. Companies in the video space who don’t fear erosion will likely not be here in five years to share how they made a serious mistake by not paying attention to it. You manage your business with a vision and with a brand promise. I’m not suggesting that you navigate based on fear. I am recommending that you prepare for competition a bit better than the great Satchel Paige once suggested. “Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you,” was Paige’s quote. In the world of streaming video, 2020 is shaping up to be a year of combustible learning. Only the strong and versatile will survive. Survival will include being capable of holding up under pressure.

MONETIZATION is without question a vital part of the conversation. An organization that is unable to generate revenue is likely hindered from applying many of the things I’ve listed previously. Still, there are many things to consider when doing a deal with external vendors – that is assuming that your pathway to consumers requires an outside vendor. The video business looks to be in Direct To Consumer (D2C) mode. However, whether the app lives on your phone or smart TV, your viewer still needs a broadband connection to watch your programming. Your app still needs to have a favorable (and discoverable) position on any platform it lives on. Think of that when you negotiate your affiliation agreement. Try to go in with some exposure to the storefront before you think you’ve scored a victory just by getting the deal done.

I’m sure that many professionals who have far more impressive pedigrees in the business of video and pay television have better or longer lists than mine. You may even elect to poke holes in this article. That’s the joy of doing business with smart people. The more you share ideas, the more likely you are to learn something new. I’m all ears.