The 2019 Update on The Future of Hotels

Let me start with a question. What is the Future of Hotels? True to relativity, the Future, of anything, is constantly moving, an hence this update, for the Future of Hotels, as of 2019.

Labor

Intensive

Historically, the hotel business has always been labor intensive - from doorman at the front to the helper in the back of the kitchen. It has always taken intense amounts of manpower, in ratio relative to size or scale of facility, to run, a hotel, whatever be the star rating, targeted guest or size.

Hard

From Bell Boys to Chambermaids, Hoteliers can't do without workers who slog from the start to finish of their shifts, real hard, but really these are jobs, mostly, that few would want to do, if they had a choice.

Compared to many other jobs, at the lower end, any job with a hotel, generally at least, is relatively respectable, bringing with it decent reputation to the worker. Yet that only serves, to veil the reality, of how physical the work actually gets, and how much workers in the industry generally have to exert in a given day, to get things done - which is a lot, for it means, that the guest finds everything fine and comfortable.

Crunch

In any country market, if there isn't a labor crunch for hoteliers yet, there will be in the foreseeable future, and, it will not stay, but rather, it will keep growing, for a long time.

The proliferation of education, access granted by technology, are converging, to empower people, to do more and better for themselves, also giving them choices, in terms of what they'd want to do with their lives, and so, in some markets it is already becoming evident, that increasingly, people are not choosing work too strenuous upon themselves, such as a lot of the hotel work out there. And for the people who have a choice not to do work involving the hard labor, we probably should be happy for them. Come on, lets be human.

If the availability of labor is not the problem, then for countries like Singapore for example, a Dream Tourist Destination, which has long relied on foreign labor for hotels to run, given its history and nature of the local education system, the import of foreign labor is being impacted by rising restrictions, that are not unique to any one country (yes, the US is not the only country clamping down on immigration). Much of the new emerging restrictions on labor movement across borders, something I sharply pointed out to some years back to a large room full of high-profile Expatriate Management Leaders, as being on the horizon then, is for very good reasons. The Easter Attacks in Sri Lanka, in 2019, are proof that terrorism is far from being defeated, and though those attacks were carried out by local terrorists within that country, the history of the past couple of decades does sharply draw a line between border controls and terrorism, apart also, from crime in general. Long story short, with other factors as well, whether domestic or foreign, labor supply, for the hotel industry, is getting cut.

The Good News

Technologically, humanity is on the doorsteps of a new epoch. We are at the doorstep of an era, where what the mind can conceive, technology can instantly execute. I, The Singapore Futurist, am not the only one, who has been saying this for a good few years now, and why not, we are seeing it play out all around us.

We are also entering a long period of time, wherein the cost of technology, will constantly be spiraling, downward to zero. As with many other businesses or industries, what this means for hoteliers, is that the work they cannot get human workers for anymore (probably for the better for those workers anyway), technology can do it for them, at a lesser cost.

Automation

Technology comes in widely varied forms.

1. Robots

2. Smart things that do things themselves

3. Then the automation that does more than you'd want to be deploying people for

The Cons Though?

A couple of years back, when I delivered a Keynote on Hotel Tech, at a conference, on Hotel Tech, the problem with automation and Robotics raised by some delegates, especially from the higher end hotels, was that guests, of their hotels, pay for luxury, which comes with a personal human touch, not machines.

A robot will not smile at you. Yeah, the emotional minus. A robot, or an automated feature, cannot offer a dynamic response on the spot, to the infinite, off-the-standard-FAQ requests or queries. As much as Artificial Intelligence is hyped up to be, fact is, sentience cannot be programmed or replicated, and that does mean, that anything outside the parameter, would leave a hotel guest, well, hunting for that human being.

The trick is, do not fire all your people! The idea, is to incorporate technology, to cut reliance on human labor, and if that is not luxury, then redefine luxury, and move to develop the people that you do continue to employ, to be very accessible, through the deployment of technology, and efficient, in meeting the guest needs, through employment of technology rather than more labor apart from themselves.

Nothing is easy. If something was, it probably wouldn't be fun.

Food, Glorious Food

Vegetarian, Vegan, Fruitarian...The Revolution....Resistance=Futile

We need a Dietary Revolution, for Humanity's Evolution, and, Planetary Salvation. And so, it is fast happening around the word, much to the pains, of the meat, animal farming and even the food industries around the world.

Look, you can forgo your steak today, or, a world, to support existence, of your children or descendants, beyond a decade and a half from today. Save your arguments and rebuttals for the environmental scientists. Better yet, go argue with nature, we now need to reverse our impacts upon.

The adverse human impact upon the environment, is directly linked to our predominant eating habits through history. The house is on fire, you need to panic. Drastic actions are necessary. One such action is, change what comes onto the plate. The Millennials and iGen around the world are embracing that change, and they are the travelers and therefore hotel guests, of the future. They are doing so, across lines of culture and religion. And it is spreading like wildfire. This despite the strong public and media lobbying efforts of big companies thriving on selling animal products, to send out messages, including getting certain University researchers to say, that we don't have to cut out the meat, just cut it down. Unfortunately, in the age of the internet, propaganda is becoming less powerful than scientific truth (which now does reach masses, plus more people are smart enough to understand it).

Add to everything environmental, the newer generations are more concerned, and particular, about health. And then if not that, the newer generations, are more ethically conscious. Basically, all things, are pointing, to a Dietary Revolution; Vegetarian, Vegan, Fruitarian.

Chef's Recommendation

This is one is easy for hoteliers. Change what comes into your kitchen, and what gets out of it. Otherwise, your guests will stay in your hotels, but dine elsewhere, which is a wasteful business concept, in sum. Besides, you probably have kids too, and want to preserve the planet for their kids.

The Operating Environment

The New Leisure Traveler

The new leisure traveler wants to travel more. Compared to holiday-makers of the past, whether youths or families, the contemporary (and future) travelers, want to travel more. Much, much more. And that is a good thing for hoteliers right? Well, probably. Yet, there are some implications to take note of, to truly benefit from this trend.

More holidays, could mean, that the nature of travels, including duration (and therefore hotel stays), will differ from the past. Traveling more, with perhaps the same amount of vacation time or annual leave for work, means, shorter stays, in destinations, and therefore too, at hotels. This means more effort, to fill up rooms, in a competitive market.

Then, there is this pressure on budget. Spending less on one holiday becomes necessary to afford the next. Remember, most people on earth, have not yet achieved the threshold, of being able to afford complete financial disregard for finances. Instead of 1 vacation a year, when family wants 5 vacations a year, it is only practical, that they'd be cutting corners where they can.

Planetary Obligation

Besides dietary changes, and the desire the travel more, the new traveler is also becoming increasingly more conscious of the scientific fact, that the very existence of humanity is under threat. And whether hoteliers would like to believe it or not, increasingly, this consciousness, is influencing the traveler decision, when making hotel bookings. Here is an idea therefore; GO GREEN!

Online Packaging

Dynamic Packaging sites are on the rise, and they will remain on that trajectory for a very long time. At this point, with the best methods of extrapolation, it is impossible for any credible Futurist to foresee, when this trajectory is going to change. Off course these sites are a boon for hotels, for convenient, easy and fast booking, externalized, for a steady stream of guests. Be it a top end of hotel or a cheap budget one on an obscure street. However, the way these sites work, especially for the bigger brands names, the other edge of the sword, is the downward pressure of day-rates, because it is about downward bidding, and out-bidding downwards (that competitor, oh, that competitor!), on price. To remain profitable in such an environment of competition, means, to cut internal overheads. Off course, automation and utilities efficiencies promised by tech, can and will help.

Home-Stay Alternatives

Airbnb was the rebirth of the home-stay trend, where, people, instead of putting up at hotels on trips abroad, could spend nights, in other people's homes, for a more, home-like atmosphere.

Contrary to the paranoia in the initial days of success for companies like Airbnb, this home-stay alternative is not as big a direct threat to hoteliers. However, apart from attracting those traveler who not otherwise be able to afford travel, Airbnb-like models, are also attracted, the more well-off, hotel-targeted travelers, by providing the "luxury" options, of higher-end or better-kept private properties. There are also emerging models of apps for accomodation booking, targeting younger travels with various social angles, that hotels would lose out on, to home-stay alternatives (or hostel alternatives) if hoteliers do not move past to tap on.

Terrorism

Any heads-up on the Future of Hotels as of 2019, would not be credible, before addressing this elephant in the room; terrorism. Territory in the Middle East may have been reclaimed from the terrorist group ISIS by nation states, but more than ever, nation states are losing the war on terror.

While nation states have focused attention on taking geographic territory, from physical terrorist control, the war of hearts and minds, is something they have been consistently losing, with terrorist reach through the internet, and failure of nations in cooperating legally, to stop extremist voices from preaching extreme ideologies across borders. A morbid example of what this results in, is the Easter Attack in Sri Lanka, in 2019. One of the main targets, in that attack, as has always been in spectacular attacks anywhere else in the past; the hotel.

Hotels are a favorite target for terrorists, because a hit on any one such facility, means the impact is felt beyond the borders of the target nation, possibly worldwide (as with the 2008 Mumbai attacks). And they will remain a priority for hoteliers, a point to argue against which, in terms of foresight, is going to be very difficult.

The Easter Attacks of 2019, was not end all, but more likely a warning, that the terrorist are today in position, to strike anywhere they want, any time they want. Given this, it is a good idea, for hoteliers everywhere, for matters above marketing, image and profit, but rather for the value of life, be vigilant, and act on vigilance. The war on terror, is a war, we all need to play our parts in, to defeat the bad guys.

It is Ultimately All About The Experience

The new traveler is less likely to look for a hotel, even on the more budget travels, at the lower ends, to just dump the bags, or have a pillow to rest the head on for a night, in the coming years, than to derive an experience in the hotel stay, in itself.

This is where, be it with incorporation of technology, or of nature, or both, or of art, or of something else, it is great idea, for Hoteliers, to begin rethinking their properties, not as accommodation providers, but as attractions, in and off themselves, whatever the scale.

As it is, nobody is blind to the fact, that some destinations attract travelers, just for the hotels themselves. Here are some concepts to compete against, or be inspired by:

About Harish Shah

Harish Shah is Singapore's first local born Professional Futurist and a Management Strategy Consultant. He runs Stratserv Consultancy. His areas of consulting and Keynote Topics include X Reality, EmTech, Product Development, Innovation, Industry 4.0, Marketing, Strategic Foresight, Systems Thinking and Organisational Future Proofing. He was the Opening Keynote Speaker at both the Hotel Management Summit Singapore 2015 and the Hotel Technology Conference 2016 Singapore.

In an Open Letter recently, Harish has called on fellow Futurists around the world to emphasize in their course of work, on the need for Environmental Salvation.