The 2019 Update on The Future of Everything - Part III

In this third installment of The 2019 Update on The Future of Everything, following up on The 2018 Update on The Future of Everything, I will focus on everything TRANSPORTATION.

Quick Recap

Before I begin, a quick recap on the previous installments and updates:

The 2018 Update on The Future of Everything:

• AR/VR/MR/Haptics/Holographics and XR
• The Future of Fintech
• The Future of Production
• The Future of Work
• The Future of Education
• The Future of Travel

The 2019 Update on The Future of Everything - Part I:

• The Future of Computing
• The Future of Fashion & Apparel
• The Global Brain
• The Future of Artificial Intelligence
• The Future of Robotics

The 2019 Update on The Future of Everything - Part II:

• The Future of Materials
• The Future of Energy
• The Future of Food

In This Installment

In this installment, I will address the following:

• The Future of Roads
• The Future of Road Vehicles
• The Future of Taxi Services
• The Future of Airplanes
• The Future of Marine Vessels

Before I get started, it is important to iterate, that the future, which involves us, humans, is always needs-driven. And the most pressing need that prevails at present, is the salvation of the planet's conditions supporting human habitation, which are rapidly diminishing, as a result of climate change, in turn as a result, of our impact upon it over the past century and a half, or so.

The Future of Roads

A Source of Power

Goodbye fossil fuels for road vehicles. Inevitable. Too destructive to the environment. Replace gas and petrol stations with charging stations? Here is a better idea. Don't stop anywhere, to charge or power that vehicle. Just let the vehicle traverse the road.

There will be resistance, as futile as it will be. There will be denial, as silly as it will be. This will be played down and dismissed. Ridiculed, even, perhaps. Laughed off, may be? Who cares? What you believe or do not believe, has no impact on the truth.

The merit of the electrified road model, makes it a certainty, that electrified roads, will eventually, be a universal reality, starting with the developed world, before gradually diffusing into and through the less developed nations.

Now, I have asked this question before. I have a question. If all the cars in your country run only on electricity, but the electricity is generated from methods or sources that are not sustainable in and of themselves, what good does it do for the planet? The answer is obvious. None.

The awesome fact about the electrified road model, is that thermal or heat energy (from ground up) is almost certain to be universally available everywhere, and ones the engineering is sorted, is likely to be the cheapest source of electricity (even compared to wind and solar), which means, nation states can power the roads with heat from the ground or earth beneath, to power the vehicles traversing those roads, without any harm to the environment. Let's see what intellectually powered rebuttals come this way (for don't we love a decent debate?).

Smart

Smartphones. Smart buildings. Smart Cities. Why not Smart Roads?

Be practical. Come on. Think about it. You want vehicles to be autonomous (which they are going to be whether you want them to be or not), you are going to need the roads to be Smart, to effectively help the autonomous vehicle technology, actually, be worthwhile.

When we talk about driverless vehicles, the conversation has almost entirely and overwhelmingly been consistently about just the vehicles. What it is time to talk about now, fairly more, is the infrastructure, to support, a full conversion, to autonomous vehicles, to do away with human drivers altogether, and all the demerits or flaws, that come, with humans driving those vehicles.

So what is a Smart Road?

Oh, a Smart Road, is just a road, that:

1. Ensures no vehicle touches another vehicle - so no accidents there
2. Ensures no vehicle goes off road - so no accidents there
3. Regulates the speed of all vehicles - so no accidents there, and criminals don't get away in get-away vehicles
4. Ensures all vehicles come to an immediate halt when a pedestrian is on the road and don't move until no pedestrian is on the road anymore - so no accidents there
5. Guides all vehicles along the fastest route from starting point to destination - Goodbye GPS, hello uber-efficiency, and no more congestion issues
6. Guides vehicles automatically to closest available parking, with or without the commuters in them, and guide them from parking spots to commuter pick-up points - no more going around in circles, so much efficiency, goodbye parking valet services
7. The Road, is actually, driving all the vehicles. Whether buses, cars, vans, trucks, or whatnot. The Road, is controlling, the controls, in the vehicles, to move, direct, steer and stop them

The Future of Road Vehicles

The Obvious, That We Already Know (Not Worth Talking About Anymore)

• They will be driverless/autonomous
• They will be electric powered and emission-free
• They will be Smart

Luxury Cars

When we talk about The Future of Road Vehicles, it now gets exciting, when we talk about the high end, luxury range.

What needs to be talked about here?

• The High-End Sports & Super-Cars - You are kidding yourself if you aren't thinking Bugatti, Ferrari, Lamborghini, etc
• The Cars that have traditionally been a Status Symbol - Think Rolls Royce, Bentley, Mercedes, BMW, etc

What is the new Luxury though?

When future cars no longer need a human driver, and therefore, they no longer need steering-wheels and driving gear in the compartment, there is room, there is space, to look forward to. That in itself, is a luxury, in comparison, to the contemporary.

On one hand, the freed up space, in the future, could mean, more leg-room, which counts definitely as luxury, especially going by contemporary airline cabin standards (yes, it is a potshot, but a fairly fair one, that most airlines, more than fairly, overly, deserve). On the other, that space can be taken up by mini-bars, entertainment systems, ice-cream dispensers, etc. I mean, come on, use your imagination. Only, that, all that, would be your new ordinary, car. Now, if that is so, how do you distinguish a car, to make it count, as luxury?

When Driving your own car....is the new luxury....just imagine.

Up until 2019, it nothing out of the usual, when luxury cars, are not driven by owners, but rather instead, by their chauffeurs. When cars go autonomous, and are pretty much driven by the Smart Roads beneath them, rather than being driven from the inside on those roads, driving itself, will be a luxury.

In the age of irrelevance for the driver's licence, the rich, will probably pay, probably a lot, to actually get a permission to actually drive, without the technology doing it for them, then pay exorbitant amounts to pay to learn to drive, as this will be something rare, therefore exclusive, and then pay a premium tariff to be allowed to own cars, that can actually be driven, by a person. That, on top, of a yet unheard of price tag, for a car, that can actually be counted as a luxury car, because it can be driven, by a person, rather than technology, built both into the car, and the road. What a thought? The future reality. Deal with it.

Now, why would this happen? What fun would you get out of a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, if you can't drive it? Answers the question? If it doesn't, boy, you aren't very smart, go read a children's book. So the wealthy, will want, to enjoy the thrill, of actually controlling the machine, called a car. And while this would no longer be possible in urban centers, where because of safety and security reasons, not to upset the otherwise autonomous flow of traffic, the wealthy would take their driver-allowing vehicles out of town or into the country-sides, for a ride. Off course, Luxury Car makers will have to build in features, into their products, to ensure, that they can operate autonomously, in the urban or populated centers.

Though off course, while luxury is an experience, and driving is an experience too, the experience of driving is not just limited, to driving. To up the game, Luxury Car Manufacturers and Designers are probably going to make their products, a little closer to fantasy, then most would imagine today. And you can probably bet a good amount, that most such brands, are already working on it. I am talking about ideas such as:

1. The car's interior converts into an office, so that you can effectively work from point A to point B (If you think this is too far into the future, you are living in an underdeveloped country, where you don't get to hear about car companies like Daimler)

2. The car's interior converts into a comfortable mini-bedroom, for a good nap (What? You think Volvo is not already working on it? Where have you been living? In Andromeda?)

3. The car redefines "status symbol", the way BMW has a history of doing, and is building a future of doing

The Future of Taxi Services

No Drivers

Like with trucks, vans, buses, and all other vehicles, your taxi services, will come without that driver or chauffeur. While I am an advocate for technology not driving unemployment or replacing human labor, because that is not what technology is for, there is some work that will be off human hands, including driving, except perhaps in motor-racing. Off course, for flying taxis, we'll probably be seeing pilots handling those machines for as far as we can presently foresee.

It's in the App

So when you need a ride, you tell your app on your device to book you one, and the nearest available taxi vehicle comes looking for you, stopping right where you are. Much like what is already happening.

App, the ride-hailing ones as they are called, are here to stay, and they will connect you with any taxicab, offered by any provider, also pretty much what is already happening with companies like Grab in Singapore.

Payment

Cash payments may not be an option, because the world is going cashless, and there won't be a driver. You would probably have your fare deducted from your bank account, automatically, before your ride begins.

Sharing Economy Effect

What happens when you own a car, that the road drives for you, and your fuel cost is zero, because the ground is powering it? You monetize, by availing it at times you don't need the transportation yourself, to app companies, who share the fares with you.

The Future of Airplanes

Pilots

Unlike with road vehicles losing human drivers, it is unlikely that airplanes will go without human pilots, for obvious security and safety reasons. Yet, it is possible, and likely, that at some point later this century, cargo aircraft could go entirely unmanned.

As for passenger aircraft, the probability in the future as can be foreseen at this point, going pilotless, is pretty much none.

Power

Aircraft will probably still be keeping the Oil & Gas, or specifically fossil fuel industry alive for a long time, even as we convert to more sustainable sources for energy, to power pretty much everything else.

The problem with kerosene powered aircraft as we have today, it is adding to environmental destruction, a push to a change in climate that threatens our very existence. This is especially a problem, as more of us, travel more, at greater frequency.

Stopping air travel is not an option. Cutting down its impact is. The future being needs driven, as we speak, the biggest aircraft manufacturers, you can safely bet, are already very hard at work, to make a shift to electric planes eventually. Though don't count on your next airliner, being one of those, anytime in the next couple of decades.

The problem is not money or economics. Electric power in aviation, is just a subject matter of engineering that wasn't really cared about by to many until very recently, and remains rather undeveloped, unexplored.

While various lesser known companies long established in aviation or aerospace have unveiled models, for wide market diffusion, particularly for mass commercial passenger aviation, given safety is the paramount priority, for good reasons, we have at least between ten to twenty years to go, ambitiously. This even though good strides are made in alternative power for aviation in this decade:

Within the lifespan of the millennial generation however, if we do not go extinct because of climate change, we will probably see all aircraft being solar powered.

The Future of Marine Vessels

Autonomous

We are not just going to see drivers disappear on the roads, but also, at sea. Unmanned marine vehicles, in miniature sizes have long been used for all sorts of purposes. For transport of goods, you just need to build them bigger, with the same engineering, amplified in size dimensions.

Don't count on passenger vessels taking the same route though. Like passenger aircraft, passenger vessels are likely to remain safely in human control, as far as we can credibly foresee.

Electric

Whatever the purpose of the marine vessel, small or large, commercial, military, private leisure, passenger or cargo, it will be electric, for a few reasons. Firstly, we need everything to be off fossil fuel as soon as possible. Next, it is easier to construct and deploy electric marine vessels, than aircraft.

Oh yes, all submarines will be electric too:

THANK YOU

Thank you for reading this update. Let me know what you think. If you believe I have missed out on something that should have been addressed or mentioned, leave a comment, and I will try visiting it, in a follow-up article.

Harish Shah is Singapore's first local born Professional Futurist and a Management Strategy Consultant. He runs Stratserv Consultancy. His areas of consulting and Keynote Topics include EmTech, Industry 4.0, HR, Digital Transformation, Product Development, X Reality, Marketing, Strategic Foresight, Systems Thinking and Organisational Future Proofing. In an Open Letter recently, Harish has called on fellow Futurists around the world to emphasize in their course of work, on the need for Environmental Salvation.