The 2019 Update on The Future of Everything - Part II

In this second installment of The 2019 Update on The Future of Everything following up on The 2018 Update on The Future of Everything, I will focus on elements of commerce and industry with which we may be able to halt and, hopefully, reverse the negative human impact upon our Environment.

In this installment, I will address the following:

• The Future of Materials
• The Future of Energy
• The Future of Food

With less than 12 years left to avert catastrophe for the human race resulting for the impact of the human race itself upon the environment supporting it, human survival should be the common primary driver for the directions the three futures covered herein take from hereon.

The Future of Materials

Edible as the New Disposable

Even as governments are legislating against single use plastics, such as straws, practical needs remain, not just to consume drinks or beverages, but also food. Disposable cutlery has been made out of plastic too, which is no less environmentally damaging, but practically necessary.

What if, however, your future cutlery and straws, are made out of environmentally friendly food, that you can consume without leaving any waste or environmental footprint? And what if, the concept, is very real? The answer is, it is excellent news!

And, as we need to eat to live, sometimes, we want to eat the plate! Can you blame us?

And sometimes, don't know about you, but I feel hungry after my drink, so, what if I could eat the cup?

Now, even if, for hygiene purposes, you don't want to eat your cup or plate, after you have consumed the contents, when you dispose of it, it is not going to kill the environment, but rather, with its bio-degradation, it is going to contribute back to it, positively.

Wait. I am not done yet. What if, for your water or beverage, all you needed, was an edible bubble, that you just put whole, into your mouth?

The best past part about everything I am telling you here or all the videos I have embedded, is that none of it, is fake news. All of it, is real. It has all already been created! So then why aren't we all using all this stuff?

Firstly, all the stuff mentioned here so far, is new, so it is going to take some time to diffuse into the market, as do all new things. What businesses can do, is chase profits, by catalyzing and accelerating that diffusion.

Secondly, because it is new, and the volume is not there, the cost is high for creators, and so, for new adopters, the cost is also high. However, if the diffusion of such items is accelerated, high volumes are reached, prices, will plummet, without necessarily causing a loss either to the creators, or to the businesses supporting the diffusion and distribution.

Thirdly, humanity needs a wake-up call, that if we don't embrace these new alternative models, humanity will come to an end within our lifetimes. So this is where you come into the picture, and start educating everybody you know or meet.

Even if it is not Edible

Yes plastic shopping bags are adding to our environmental problems and it is probably a good idea to get rid of them. However, practically, I have to ask myself this question, of how do I get trash, efficiently and hygienically from my apartment to the trash chute on my floor, without those things? Besides that, to dispose of trash at events or whatnot, without the plastic trash bag, how do you ensure general cleanliness?

While the world has been abuzz with the singing of, "dump the plastic bag", in reality, this is rather impractical. Not as impractical as dumping plastic consumption itself appears to be, but impractical nonetheless. So how we get to middle ground? The answer is, don't do away with those disposable shopping or trash bags or even disposable food packaging for takeaway, but do away with plastic or anything else damaging to the environment. The answer, lies, in material.

Again, cost is a factor, but the reason for that, is volume. If consumer demand is created, and that can be done, against, the cost will no longer be a problem for retailers or consumers alike.

Cutting Disposables: More Reusables

While somethings for logical and practical reasons will always need to be disposable, for which bio-friendly biodegradable materials, that are non-plastic and non-paper, will need to be explored and utilized, some things, don't have to be disposable.

Necessarily, the room for innovation needs to be explored and expanded, in turning disposable use as much as possible, into practice of reuse, to both cut material wastage and environmental damage. At the same time, there is need for care, in ensuring, that new materials utilized for the reusable products, are themselves eco-friendly. And working in that direction, does not have to mean for businesses, that it would be unprofitable.

The 4D Factor

The purpose of technology and its evolution, has always fundamentally been, about being SMART or SMARTER.

Whether for building, clothing, vehicles or appliances, materials used will be dynamic, programmed and programmable. Those that won't be as such, likely will become obsolete.

The purpose of the SMART material in the 4D Printed production era, will be to enable all items to adapt to elements, environment, climate, weather and situations. Materials, and the products made of them, will be autonomously shape-shifting.

Any effort to scour video content online, today, for 4D Printing will predominant surface content coming out of academia or public research facilities. However, 3D Printing is far more widespread today than is even known or acknowledged within the Manufacturing sector for all sorts of purposes, which is a funnel for transition into 4D Printing. Long story short, the demand, use and mass-commercialization for 4D Material, is not quite distant from 2019, even if it has not begun yet. Then again, some ground-breaking products, don't take too long for widespread market diffusion.

The Future of Energy

Renewable Sources

I have a question. If all the cars in your country run only on electricity, but the electricity is generated from methods or sources that are not sustainable in and of themselves, what good does it do for the planet? The answer is obvious. None.

The very fundamental logic and purpose for having vehicles run on electricity instead of fossil fuels, with less than 12 years left to avert catastrophe for the human race (and to hopefully not see its extinction within our lifespans), should be to reduce negative human impact upon the environment that supports human life. If this is not met, we may as well continue travelling using vehicles powered by fossil fuels.

As of 2016, more than half the world's electrical generation came from coal, fossil gas, fossil oil and nuclear fission. The most contentious here is nuclear fission, because there is widespread denial of its negative harms arising from uranium mining (without which nuclear energy generation is not possible), radioactive emissions, anthropogenic heat (albeit less harmful than greenhouse gasses) and large amount of water usage in the process.

Taking scientific facts into account, one must concede, that nuclear energy is significantly friendly to the environment, than fossil fuel energy generated from coal, gas or oil. It does not fare well however, when compared to renewable energy sources whether wind, solar, hydro or geothermal.

Speaking of renewable energy, there is one particular type that is considered or classified as such, but does not quite help in halting negative impact upon the environment entirely; Bio-energy. And hence really, for the sake of halting negative impact onto the environment, and I reiterate, hopefully reversing that impact, would require a full conversion to and adoption of, the following four (until other practical sources emerge, if they do soon enough, and also without fully ruling out the fifth option of Bio-energy) within the next half a decade:

• Solar
• Hydro
• Wind
• Geothermal

Difficult ≠ Impossible. When the continuity of the human species is in question, this simple equation needs to be the mantra, when thinking, talking or working, on energy.

End of Fossil Fuels?

At this stage in the human story, it makes sense, to kill off the Oil & Gas industry. Better than killing off humanity. I have long articulated as a Professional Futurist, that the Future always is and should be needs driven. Oil was once Black Gold. The biggest thing in commerce. That, was driven by a certain need in the past, that dictated its rise in value. The present need that should dictate our future ahead, is the very salvation of humanity itself.

However, even with an urgent conversion to renewable energy sources, even if it happens, and hopefully it does, fossil fuels won't just abruptly disappear within the next couple of decades. Taking the fossil fuels out of the picture, even if costly for some places perhaps, is a very real feasible possibility within the next year from when I write this, for electricity generation to meet land based needs, because of the knowledge, the technology and intellectual resources out there that are available. It becomes a different matter for what would make a currently foreseeable timeline, for aviation and marine needs.

While prototype electric planes powered by solar energy have been successfully tested and electric powered marine vessels have been deployed, replacing all marine and aerial vessels, whether for cargo or passengers, that run on fossil fuels, in a decade or two, with those running on alternative environmentally friendly fuels, is a massive tall order, not because of the cost, or the potential disruption to travel and logistics, but the necessary technological development in that direction, while thus far proven feasible, has not yet been achieved. For example, to manufacture an airplane that can transport 100 people from Singapore to Kuala Lumpur, which is about an hour's flight, will take yet many more years of Research & Development, Testing and so on, before such an airplane will actually be deployed.

As far aviation fuel goes, Bio-fuel is emerging as an alternative to the "traditional" petroleum based, but, as mentioned earlier, Bio-Fuel is not necessarily that much a better alternative for environmental benefits, than fossil fuel. The same will apply in marine scenarios for the more foreseeable future ahead.

However, besides the purpose of powering aircraft and marine vessels, it is not in the interest of the human species, to not discontinue fossil fuel generated energy, when all other purposes can be served, with renewable energy source utilization. The same can be said for nuclear fission and bio-fuels. And that pretty much, is the ultimate determining factor, for the Future of Energy.

Opportunity: Storage

When energy is generated from means of hydro, solar, geothermal and wind, what do you do with the excess? You store it, for later use, or, for distribution, or, for selling, to those who can't generate electricity by those means or for purposes of powering objects not connected to the grid, including through export. How do you that? With the use of effective storage systems and devices. While these are rapidly evolving and the market obviously growing, there is much untapped opportunity ahead yet, for businesses to serve and capitalize upon the energy storage needs of the decades ahead.

The Future of Food

Not Just About Environment, But Especially About it

In the US, there have been increases in conversions to vegan diets of up to 600% over 3 year periods along with a jump of 350% over a decade in the UK.

With the proliferation of education combined with widespread access to the internet which in turn grants free access to abundant information, people constituting the 7.5 billion global human population, are generally growing more informed, more intelligent and wiser. It is that last bit that matters, when we look ahead to food demand.

With a rise of wisdom, by each new emerging generation, starting with the Millennials, followed by the iGen, which will be followed by whatever comes next, the equations of sensible considerations for bodily needs and well-being, are likely to remain on a constant and consistent trajectory of evolution for a long time, until perhaps, someday, animals virtually disappear from the menus and supermarket shelves, altogether. It is not a supply question. It is a wholly demand question, over the decades ahead, starting from right now. And that is, while we are only talking health and physical needs without even approaching the subjects of ethics and environment.

And when it comes to the ethical standards that are evolving among people, a key factor with rising wisdom, is the rising compassion, that dominates the debate, between animal-based menus and animal-free menus.

Even when talking about environment, the smarter humanity gets, as a whole, with more of its constituents becoming smarter, the more likely its leaning will be towards empirical intelligence, such as findings of Oxford or the UN, on impact of our diet or food sources on the environment, than to possible contradicting angles coming from news media. What I am telling you, is that you are looking at a rising wave that you either surf, or keep away from.

While Veganism has a far louder voice today, particularly in the West, Vegetarianism, that you hardly hear mention of, is the more likely option, that better informed, the better educated and wiser, would generally embrace, not necessarily thus bringing an end to all animal farming or to dairy produce. The most common outcome the world is likely to end up with by the end of the current century in terms of human dietary preference, is Lacto-Vegetarianism, which provides a balance both in terms of health and environment, and is also a relatively ethical option to other alternatives apart from veganism.

While the more militant environmentalists will object to the sustenance of the dairy industry as the sustenance of damaging methane emissions, this is where we revisit the Future of Energy where I paraphrase myself as stating that the option of Bio-energy should not be fully ruled out for the future; There is yet much room for exploration of eco-friendly harnessing of methane in particular, at least for energy purposes. After all, whenever it comes to the future, it is always, all connected.

Implications

There are broad and significant implications for food-related or food-dependent industries when increasingly more people on earth are averse to animals on the plate, such as the restaurant industry, the fishing industry (which is widely being accused, now, quite empirically, of killing the oceans and thus the in-habitability of this planet for us along with it) and so on.

For nations the implication is massive redevelopment, redeployment and reemployment of workforce that depends on meat or fish on the plate. Not so much from or in the restaurant or eatery sector, but in the food agriculture, production and distribution sectors. However, when considering trade-offs, would governments prefer to have non-existence of humanity, and thus their peoples? Or would the governments prefer, rethinking of manpower? This is not limited to subject on the Future of Food.

More parts to The 2019 Update on The Future of Everything, to come in due time.

What you may have Missed in the Previous Updates

The 2018 Update on The Future of Everything

• AR/VR/MR/Haptics/Holographics and XR
• The Future of Fintech
• The Future of Production
• The Future of Work
• The Future of Education
• The Future of Travel

The 2019 Update on The Future of Everything - Part I

• The Future of Computing
• The Future of Fashion & Apparel
• The Global Brain
• The Future of Artificial Intelligence
• The Future of Robotics

THANK YOU

Thank you for reading this update. Let me know what you think. If you believe I have missed out on something that should have been addressed or mentioned, leave a comment, and I will try visiting it, in a follow-up article.

Harish Shah is Singapore's first local born Professional Futurist and a Management Strategy Consultant. He runs Stratserv Consultancy. His areas of consulting and Keynote Topics include EmTech, Industry 4.0, HR, Digital Transformation, Product Development, X Reality, Marketing, Strategic Foresight, Systems Thinking and Organisational Future Proofing. In an Open Letter recently, Harish has called on fellow Futurists around the world to emphasize in their course of work, on the need for Environmental Salvation.