2019 Kentucky Derby Analysis

So it is that time of year again where we find out who the fastest 3 year old colt is on the first Saturday in May. As someone who has followed racing for a fair number of years, and done quite well along the way...I will give you my opinion as to how I see this race (now that the Post Positions have been drawn).

This is not a great group of horses...almost reminds me of 1982 and the "Gato Del Sol" Kentucky Derby. This group is mediocre at best, and in some cases just flat out subpar compared to recent years.

Rain is in the forecast the next few days and I am expecting a less than fast track....possibly rain on Saturday and a track that could be quite muddy.

From the rail out

#1 War of Will...A headstrong horse that wants to be on or near the lead will have to be sent from the rail. Clearly a loser in the Post Position draw, he has been training well, but I would demand a really good price to play him. Not impossible, but I feel less confident after a horse who clearly had trouble breaking from the gate in the Louisiana Derby draws the #1 post with several speed horses just to his immediate right.

#2 Tax One horse I am not concerned about needing the lead, might actually have drawn well to be in the #2 post. Tax will get the chance to settle in on the rail and take the shortest route home if he chooses. Distance will not be a problem being a son of Arch and grandson of Kris S and Giant's Causeway. Might be better suited to Turf however.

#3 By My Standards The Louisiana Derby winner benefitted from a ground saving trip and passed Spinoff in the stretch. Sired by Goldencents (who was distance limited...basically a miler type) I do not see By My Standards hanging around at 10 furlongs. Took 4 attempts for this horse to break his maiden. Not for me.

#4 Gray Magician Hit the board 6 out of 8 tries however only win was at Del Mar on Nov 24th 2018 in a weak 6 horse field. Flavian Prat rode him that day...will not be on him today. 2nd in the UAE Derby, but that was a race that Divine Image was supposed to win (and did not). Johannesburg (Champion Sprinter) and Hennessey (Sprinter/Miler) on the Dam side does not inspire confidence that 10 furlongs is appropriate. Toss.

#5 Improbable Being a son of City Zip concerns me. City Zip was an outstanding champion and even better sire, but is still seen as more of a sire of Sprinters. City Zip is half brother to Champion and Horse of the Year and Hall of Famer Ghostzapper. Still 10 furlongs is stretching the truth on what would be possible. If it rains and the track is sloppy and Improbable can grab an early lead...I suppose it is possible as City Zip / Carson City sire line is very proficient on wet tracks. Reluctant Toss due to distance concerns.

#6 Vekoma Just watching his odd gait makes my eyes burn. Left front leg actions seems odd, almost like he is struggling or paddling his way to the finish line. With Game Winner, Omaha Beach, Win Win Win and several others I like better...I just feel Vekoma is several cuts below. Bottom half of the field finish.

#7 Maximum Security 4 for 4 at Gulfstream Park, but has never raced anywhere else. Not going to be able to dictate a slower easy pace on the lead...he will get pressured. Will he survive a new set of surroundings and circumstances. I'm betting against it. Not biting.

#8 Tacitus Turning out to be the "wise guy horse" this year...everyone seems to love him. That being said will you get enough value to wager on him. With a clean trip a win is possible, bloodlines suggest 10 furlongs is not the issue. Was the Wood Memorial a solid prep race ? You decide.

#9 Plus Que Parfait "More Than Perfect" in French, Winner of the UAE Derby (when Divine Image decided to throw in a clunker), beat out Gray Magician with some bold moves in the stretch. 10 furlongs or longer should be EASY with his pedigree, might be best suited for the Belmont Stakes at 12 furlongs. Problem is...compared to others, he seems slow. Outside longshot chance only.

#10 Cutting Humor Pedigree wise seems suited for the Kentucky Derby distance. Winner of the Sunland Derby by a shortening neck over Anothertwistoffate (who would have caught Cutting Humor if the Sunland Derby was another 20 yards longer) is one of Todd Fletcher's horses. With the right pace set up, if he decided to make a late run...maybe hits the board ?

#11 Haikal Winner of the Gotham Stakes G3, has yet to prove himself around 2 turns. Decent 3rd in the Wood Memorial, but no match for Tax and Tacitus (both of whom he faces in the Derby). Not with my money.

#12 Omaha Beach Currently I will consider him the horse to beat and with PP 12 Mike Smith should be able to comfortable guide him. 2 for 2 on an off track, which he is likely to see again Saturday...not much excuse at this point. Contender, if not the one to beat.

#13 Code of Honor The Pedigree says Yes !! His sire Noble Mission is a full brother to Grade 1 Stakes Winner Frankel. Galileo (IRE), Sadlers Wells, and Dixie Union might suggest this horse belongs on turf however. At 15-1 morning line...I will place a couple dollar bills on him...just to be safe. Certain figure he finds his way into exotics wagers.

#14 Win Win Win 6 races and has hit the board every time winning 3 of them. Sire Hat Trick (JPN) was Awarded Best Sprinter/Miler in Japan. Further back in the Bloodlines however is 1989 Kentucky Derby Winner Sunday Silence, 2004 Kentucky Derby Winner Smarty Jones, 12 times stakes winner Lost Code. Interesting pedigree seems to be just a little short on recent stamina however. If you love him..by all means, play him.

#15 Master Fencer He is Here by invitation !! The 1st Japanese bred horse to run and qualifies on the Japan road to the Derby point system. Lets be honest for a moment, this is strictly for BETTING MONEY !! With an interest to root for, Japan will have a reason to watch (and wager) on Kentucky Derby. More money is good for Churchill Downs and even if the Japanese decide not to bet on their own horse (and they should not) money is money and Churchill will gladly welcome the foreign horse in the hopes of spreading interest in thoroughbred racing. I know he does not belong here, The Japanese know he does not belong here, and you should know he does not belong here. Shame on you if you waste any money here. Betting on him is like sending money to "money heaven". The only question is how long will it take the search party to find him after the race.

#16 Game Winner Reigning 2 year old Eclipse Champion has 6 races and 4 wins with two 2nd place finishes. Really has yet to run a bad race. I believe he is fully cranked and sitting on a huge effort. Needs to overcome post 16. Should be in your top 3 choices.

#17 Roadster Nice horse but had a ground saving trip to win the Santa Anita Derby over Game Winner. Watch the Santa Anita Derby again please. Roadster was horse #1 and had a rail saving trip. Game Winner was only horse #6 (the outside that day) but traveled 38 feet longer than Roadster. Roadster will not get the rail trip from post 17. Mike Smith chooses Omaha Beach...that should tell you all you need to know.

#18 Long Range Toddy He has won minor stake races at lesser tracks. 4 wins from 8 races with a 2nd and a 3rd to his credit. Consistent type, but did not seem to like the off track in the Arkansas Derby. Forecast is for Rain. Do we forgive him for that bad effort or is this a case where he gets a little kickback in his face and he folds. Odds will be square enough to take a small chance...but a Small Chance is all you should wager.

#19 Spinoff Lightly raced son of Hard Spun should offer good value. Never off the board in 4 starts, but never been elevated to Grade 1 level. Draws a miserable post position for a horse that like to be near the lead. Still, this is not the best Kentucky Derby field you will ever see. If you are going to take a stab in the dark...this is a really good year to do it, and you could do worse choosing other horses. If you get in the neighborhood of 25-1...why not ??

#20 Country House With only a maiden win to his credit, though he has hit the board in 4 out of 6 starts...he breaks from the gate poorly, tends to spot the field countless lengths. This is a recipe for disaster from any post position, not just post 20. I just can not see it happening, there are far better horses in the race than Country House.

At the end of the day I can see Omaha Beach, Game Winner, Win Win Win, Spinoff, Tax and Code of Honor in some fashion making up the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta.