2019 - APC or PDP? Lets predict with disruptive strategy where power will skate to...

The 2019 election in Nigeria will mark another interesting disruption that will shake up the economy in just about two (2) decades. As we all know the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) lost power to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2015 election.

Even though we can attribute this power loss by the PDP to many causes as hammered by the APC during the campaign: no savings, no infrastructure, no power, no rail, no road, no security and high level of corrupt practices in the system. Really, in 16 years? all these happened and it took Nigerians 16 years to spot the mistakes? - I personally don't think it should take that long but Nigerians are really interesting people though.

The APC after seizing power from the PDP, have been faced with some unique challenges i.e. the recession - the umbrella under which it disguised its non-performance to Nigerians who have been complaining daily as the regime kicks-off and they in-turn pat themselves on the successes achieved on insecurities in the north and the reduction in corrupt practices. Some great milestones though.

Thanks everyone for reading to this point, but we will be discussing using the theory of disruptive strategy.

According to Tony Ulwick, there are two (2) situations in which change is required:

1. When a market is highly over-served, and;
2. When a market is highly under-served. (We are here).

The theory of sustaining innovation predicts that 'incumbent fight new entrants' - In a layman's language 'the APC will fight the PDP' (Of-course this is expected as they won't just give up easily) just like how Donald Trump fought Hillary Clinton. But the theory also predicts that 'incumbents typically wins'. So, Hillary Clinton was supposed to win right? and if the theory works for Nigeria 'APC should win, right?' let's find out.

According to him (paraphrase): Most Government do not realize when they are dealing with an over or under-served market or when a market is appropriately served. He said, its only by defining a market as a job and job executor and uncovering all the needs in the market can a Government know for sure. Now what are the jobs to be executed by the Government: maintain law and order, protect lives and property, promote democracy and social justice, provision of social welfare services, promote economic development, protect human rights, maintain external relations and creation of employment opportunities e.t.c.

Out of all these jobs mentioned, making a comparison between the APC and the PDP, who did the job best? Now let's ask, If the APC is currently doing the job so well, why are people complaining so much? or If the PDP also did the job well, why were they disrupted?

He further said "If it turns out the market is highly under-or-over-served, then a strategy for sustaining innovation or product improvement is a recipe for failure.

"More radical change is called for. Knowing the market is ripe for disruption is the first step toward the right market and product strategy–and growth".

When citizens need Jobs-to-be-Done (JTBD), they hire a product (political parties who then nominates a President) to get the job done. Lets step back a bit, before the APC came to power, the PDP succeeded at some jobs and also failed at some jobs. Among the major jobs the PDP failed at were: security and increased corrupt practices. Then, citizens were struggling to get a job done (security and corruption), the product (PDP) available to citizens at that period offered only limited help. Citizens are generally willing to pay more (hire another product) to get the job done better. In 2015 with the rising tension, they needed a product with both security (military) background and integrity. [Flashback] - Can you remember some years ago, same Nigerians did not hire this specific product (Muhammadu Buhari) 3 times even when this product (Muhammadu Buhari) had this core competence and his performance-defining components were known ahead of time - He is a retired major general in the Nigerian Army and previously served as the nation's head of state from 31 December 1983 to 27 August 1985, after taking power in a military coup d'état. Also he is known for high-level of integrity and low economic & financial intelligence e.t.c - He first defeat was with All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in 2003 against Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP. His second defeat was still with ANPP against Umaru Yar’Adua (late) of the PDP in 2007. His third defeat was with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) against Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP in 2011. His fourth contest was a victory with the All Progressive Congress (APC) against Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP in 2015. Why was this product (Muhammadu Buhari) rejected 3 times?

According to Clayton Christensen of the Harvard Business School, the performance-defining component (paraphrase) is defined as the component in the value stack that provides the functionality that citizens care most about (security and integrity in 2015). Before 2015, the performance-defining component was not 'security and integrity', other core competence were used to evaluate the 'Jobs done' before the disruption. But the 2015 election made citizens to demand for a unique set of core competence, which was 'security and integrity' and this was lacking on other competing products at that time.

Do Nigerians care most about 'insecurity and corrupt practices' then? (Yes in 2015) or but now, do Nigerians care most about 'an appropriately served economy where people are guaranteed of prompt payment of salaries and there is steady cash flow in the economy with more opportunities?' (Yes in 2019).

Also, will Nigerians care most about 'insecurity and corrupt practices' in 2019? No. Kindly note, the Jobs-to-be-done has changed from 'insecurity and corrupt practices' to demand for 'an appropriately served economy where people are guaranteed of prompt payment of salaries and there is steady cash flow in the economy with more opportunities?' and this product (APC through Muhammadu Buhari) does not have the performance-defining component in these areas to nail the job at the moment, so the people will have to hire a different product (PDP) to get the job done. If the APC understands this, they should have deduced that Jobs-to-be-Done constantly evolves and the product (APC) that may be eventually hired to do this new job must reflect the current needs of the economy and the performance-defining component (ability to create an appropriately served economy where people are guaranteed of prompt payment of salaries and there is steady cash flow in the economy with more opportunities) of the job executor.

How can we tell that these are the dynamics playing? its an established fact already, for either PDP or APC, the President is coming from the North in 2019. APC's leverage in 2015 was capitalizing on the gaps in the market then 'insecurity and corruption' - these two (2) jobs are very important to the citizens, which they paid highly for (they traded other manageable working parts for these two jobs), because it was obvious, the country was no longer safe and the corrupt practices was rising. This was the causal mechanism behind the first disruption (loss of power by the PDP).

Now, APC (currently, some members are already decamping back to PDP) did NOT understand the causal mechanism behind the 2015 victory. Because, if they did and were working towards sustainability of its power (sustaining innovation) they should have made the good-product they inherited from PDP better. For example, they should have kept the balance of the system as they met it as they also improve the areas that gave them the power. Now gaps are visible and everybody can smell the second disruption coming.

Looking at the headline from Naija.ng "6 Northerners who may likely replace Buhari in 2019":

1. Atiku Abubakar (a former vice-present of Nigeria and a former presidential candidate).
2. Nuhu Ribadu (a former EFCC chairman and a former presidential candidate of the ACN).
3. Nasir El-Rufai (a former FCT Minister and the current Kaduna State Governor).
4. Sule Lamido (the two-time Governor of Jigawa State).
5. Rabiu Kwankwaso (the two-time Governor of Kano State and the current Senator).
6. Aminu Masari (the current Katsina State Governor)

According to The Guardian "Tinubu, without mincing words, said there would be primary elections to determine the candidate of the party, saying Buhari would allow and support due process and rule of law for the elections.", it was countered indirectly by Governor Nasir El-Rufai with this statement on Premium Times "And there are many governors I will not mention the number but a majority of the APC governors have already taken the position that the president should run for a second term in office. And we are grateful to the Almighty God that the question marks about his health have been put to rest, he is getting better every day and we are confident that the way to preserve our party and preserve and advance the interest of Nigeria is for Mr. President to run for a second term.".

Well, I guess the APC are still not aware that the interest of Nigerians was 'skating' towards another direction, possibly away from 'security and corruption' (2015 jobs-to-be-done requirements) to 'an appropriately served economy where people are guaranteed of prompt payment of salaries and there is steady cash flow in the economy with more emerging opportunities' (2019 jobs-to-be-done requirements).

Are Nigerians ready for the second disruption? Well, they are ready to get the pressing jobs in the economy done. The causal effect is, people are tired of stories and just want to get the job done (eliminate hardship and hunger in the country) - they don't just want to survive they want to live. They have both accepted that the products are coming from the North, but now with visible performance-defining component to get the jobs done besides fighting corruption and insecurities - The compensating behaviors are seen on the list above.

Well, Governor Nasir El-Rufai stills sees 'integrity and security' as valid causal mechanism that will keep the APC in power after the 2019 election but I strongly disagree. According to the theory of disruptive strategy from Clayton Christensen of the Harvard Business School (paraphrase), we should:

1. Never believe that the strategy that allowed us to become successful, will always help us to become successful.
2. If our layer in the value stack is becoming modular, then it becomes commoditized, that means where the causal mechanism resides at a particular point will always change over time.
3. Always view your strategy as temporarily a good strategy, not something that will always lead to growth.

Nigerians need specific 'Jobs-to-be-Done' which is: 'food on the table' with or without recession!.

I see power skating to where the Jobs will be done properly: take the economy out of recession, job creation, prompt payment of salaries as at when due, improved standard of living, improved quality of education, partially stable power (since fixed power looks impossible for now), revived economy, and majorly hope for the average Nigerian e.t.c.

When incumbents fail at delivering some pressing jobs, they are exposed to disruption, the price for failing at sustaining innovation (making good products get better) is to be disrupted.

Its a prediction, lets see how it evolves. But the 2019 elections will play out differently.

If the PDP present candidates whose performance-defining component to nail the Job is evident while also providing the right experiences and integration during the campaign to deliver these promised jobs - Nigerians will skate to PDP but if the PDP fails at this - the APC will win on the grounds of good-enough product but not better product.

For PDP to win, they need to focus on the Job not the product/brand name - PDP.

For APC to win, they need sustaining innovation in order to make the good product get better and they could have achieved this by presenting a different candidate who will have some good-enough performance-defining component to leverage upon to do those jobs yet to be done. But the incumbent (APC) is presenting the same candidate for the new jobs when the market demand has evolved - currently, they are focused on targeting the under-served citizens whose needs have evolved from what it was previously in 2015.

People have moved, market dynamics have shifted, interests have evolved!.

PDP also know that - insecurity and corruption is no longer the leverage in 2019. Its Jobs-to-be-Done and the causal mechanism that will influence the selection of products will be 'performance-defining component' to nail the new jobs.

But note, according to the theory of disruptive innovation propounded by Professor Clayton Christensen of the Harvard Business School, in the battle for sustaining innovation "incumbents typically wins" meaning APC is likely to win the next election on the grounds of sustaining innovation - but that's only if they had made a good product or service better.

I hope this was informative, thanks for reading and you are free to re-share.

Aderogba Otunla