2018 - The year that wasn't for SA. 2019 - The year that has to be.

This time a year ago, South Africa was on a knife edge. The African National Congress (ANC) was geared up for its 5-year elective conference at Nasrec. As ordinary citizens concerned about the moral decay and economic slaughter, our collective hearts were in our throats as we anxiously anticipated the outcome of a battle royal between two candidates who represented two very distinct possibilities for us: a ‘possible’ high road or a ‘definite’ low road.

The breathtakingly narrow result was a deal-making victory for Camp Ramaphosa and millions of South African citizens hopes were heightened, more so after watching the expression of disbelief on President Zuma’s face when the vote count was announced. It felt like the country had avoided going off the cliff. The rand strengthened, the world nodded, and before long the terms ‘Ramaphoria’ and ‘New Dawn’ donned a wave of positive sentiment in the media. 

Expectations were high that the newly elected ANC President would shortly become the new South African President, however it took several weeks of persuasive manoeuvring to convince Jacob Zuma to release the nation's reigns. Within weeks, the expected reshuffle of Ramaphosa's Cabinet saw the axing of ten ministers, all of whom were either central to the state capture saga or close allies of Jacob Zuma. The wheels of change were turning.

A good start indeed, buoyed earlier by the appointment of a new board at Eskom and announcements of senior management changes looming within other state owned entities. With Pravin Gordhan in charge of public enterprises, the wielding axe took its toll on corrupt or sloppy executives and directors. The removal of Tom Moyane and his clan from a decimated SARS followed, along with the long awaited removal of disgraced Shaun Abrahams as head of National Prosecutions and replaced by - Ms Shamila Batohi. A nervous fear permitted the meeting rooms of a corrupt but dwindling power base, as the cash registers were slammed shut and jets loaded with multi-billionaires headed north to arid but safer pastures, for now.

RAMAPHORIA VS RAMAREALITY 

The energy of a new broom sweeping clean ignited conferences and job summits, with local and international investors pledging a R300bn economic injection during the investment summit. While these events attracted support from almost every sector, the wary skeptics raised concerns that we've seen this movie before. Plans and promises are meaningless unless they are successfully implemented. The talk may have been good, but the important ingredients of policy certainty and trust were missing in the recipe of economy foundation building, rendering investment and job creation plans to the 'someday maybe' files, as businesses cut costs and shed jobs to meet their profit targets.

Despite a fairly positive start to his presidency, the nation anticipated President Ramaphosa’s New Dawn to deliver more. Top of the list was the call for accountability of corrupt and incompetent leaders. With ample evidence from numerous criminal charges already laid by civil society, and with more emerging from parliamentary committees and judicial commissions, ample opportunities to have corrupt politician and state entity executives, prosecuted have gone unanswered.

Confidence in the government is at its lowest levels and trust in Ramaphosa's ability to take South Africa to new heights appears to hinge on the need for policy certainty and the rule of law to take root. Eskom’s latest round of load-shedding will exacerbate negative sentiment and hit already hard-pressed businesses even harder. The Zuma hangover lingers on.

Equally distressing is the spike of skilled people leaving the country. Figures show that South Africa is likely to break emigration records in 2018 and the main reasons attributed to emigration are a lack of job opportunities (low economic growth), the education crisis, changes in tax laws, land expropriation without compensation and declining safety and security. The loss of skills and experience is something we can ill afford.

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

The national elections in Q2 of 2019 will have huge implications, whichever way it goes. Either the ANC wins with 50% and staves off the need to form coalition deals with other parties, or we deal with the complexities of coalition governments that comes with sideshows and distractions that we have little time for. The danger in this reality is that the ANC scores out of a fear for coalition chaos and the desire to keep Ramaphosa in charge. However, ours is a party and not an individual election process and there is no certainty of Ramaphosa retaining his position. Many voters aren't aware of that fact.

Will the populist antics of EFF garner them growth or will the DA entrench its dominant opposition party status? Will the DA be able to wrestle control of the Gauteng province from the ANC, now that it has managed two metropoles therein since the local elections of 2016? Our future and potential hangs on the tender hooks of too many unknown scenarios and dynamics that have the collective ability to impede our potential or to catapult us into the real rising of the 'New Dawn".

Uncertainty breeds stagnation and deters much needed investment, which is the one main ingredient that will ignite the engine room of heightened prosperity. Unfortunately, we will be a nation in limbo until after the 2019 elections.

2019 - THE YEAR OF ANTICIPATION AND OPPORTUNITY

While 2018 has not delivered economic growth and confidence, the groundwork for massive growth has been laid. The barriers to prosecutions have been lifted and courageous leadership within the NPA, Hawks, SAP and SARS will stimulate the rule of law to swing into full gear. The expected prosecution of prominent corrupt people will improve trust and confidence. One cannot stress more the importance of this action alone. Once the arrest of people who's wealth was created through corrupt behaviour and conduct starts to happen, the wheels of justice being seen to be implemented will have a massive impact on the psyche, productivity and prosperity of the nation.

The collective exhaustion of a nation that has struggled and scrapped through 2018 is palpable. But that's behind us now and we have to believe with conviction that 2019 will be the year that the "New Dawn" broke through the clouds. This country has too much going for it to give up, so giving up is not an option to be considered. Digging deep to unlock this nation's immense potential must be top of mind for each and every one of us. A key focus on everyones to-do-list in January should be "something I will do to tackle corruption, wasteful expenditure or mediocre leadership".

If we all do something that challenges our local, provincial and national leadership to act in the best interests of the people they serve, you and I will uplift the economy and lives of everyone. Everyone, more so the poor, will benefit from the flow of revenue and services to the much needed infrastructure and services that will start to unfold.

Roll on more revelations from the State Capture Commission in 2019. Roll on a heightened degree of civil activism, community oversight and participation in fixing troubled municipalities. Roll on greater demands for transparency, environmental protection and improved quality of life by the removal political interference in the administration of our country's affairs.

We have more than enough tax revenues, resources and a rich diversity to make SA the best place to be going forward. Let's make it happen. # BeTheCountry.

Be safe and have a good rest this summer break. We're going to need to be refreshed and ready to tackle a momentous and exciting year ahead.