2018 Blockchain, Decentralized and Crypto-Asset Predictions

TL;DR– I am predicting what will happen in Blockchain, Decentralized, Crypto-Assets. I will be right about some of them and wrong about most of them.

Ok, since so many other industries do it, we may as well have the useless predictions blog post.

I have two strategies available to me.

The first is that I pull a CYA and make a vague prediction that is right either way as in “blockchain is going to have an impact on how society works” (if you don’t agree with that statement, you’re at the wrong blog!)

The second I just rely upon the fact that almost no one gets called out for making bad predictions.

So, it’s good click bait, but not a ton of reader value since if there is one thing I have learned in the last 2 years in crypto, it’s that this thing can humble anybody.

So, we may as well join in and throw some ideas off the wall. Looking forward to your comments.

Big Bad 2018 Blockchain and Crypto Asset Predictions

In 2018, the following things will happen.

Ripple will lose its luster as people realize that it’s a cool business but that it doesn’t actually require a protocol token to work. There are a number of other protocols (including some VERY high market cap ones) that also don’t require a token to work. The market will start to weed them out. That being said, Ripple will be a valuable company because of the service it provides. It just won’t be a valuable protocol. The protocol multiples are much higher. Disclosure: I previously owned XRP, but don’t hold any now.

The Lightning Network will either work and Bitcoin will regain its prominence as THE default cryptocoin in the world OR it will fail miserably and Bitcoin will continue to fall farther and farther behind as a coin of relevance. If that happens, Bitcoin Cash becomes the “real” Bitcoin.To me, it’s a coin toss. I’m playing catch up on this one as I sold a lot of my BCH when it came out in favor of BTC, thinking SegWit2x would happen, but I was wrong. Ouch. That hurts.

The “Privacy” Wars will begin as people recognize the difference between pseudonymity and anonymity in cryptocurrency.When they do, the competition will intensify for adoption of a “privacy” coin like

Zcash (disclosure: client and definitely biased, so please keep that in mind.)

Monero (which seems to be the privacy coin of choice on the Dark Web) and therefore, I believe (no evidence to support this theory), that it will have a huge government target on its back.

Dash has amazing marketing (Amanda B. Johnson is probably the best in the business) but some questions abound about the reputation of some of the leadership team, weaknesses within the masternode set up and possibly even legal implications.

PIVX which has a fun team and it’s really fast plus can integrate with Slack.

I predict that 1-2 of these coins will be recognized as the “next Bitcoin” within the mainstream media. There are a lot of factors here, but I think it will come down to whose security mentality is superior. We’ll only know that after a few big attacks.[bonus: see article on Zcash/Zooko from Fortune]

No matter what, Privacy w/in digital currency is going to hit mainstream awareness.

The DAO Market [Aragon, Colony, District0x, DAOStack] may have a few proof of concepts DAOs running. It’ll be interesting to hear the metrics they report on in terms of set up time, user base, types of activities/DAOs in operation, and others. These protocols have massive opportunity (as I wrote here in Venture Beat), though the vision in this market may be way ahead of the tech.If there are 50 or so legit projects in pilot (and I would be one of them), then it’s on a fast pace, imho.Partnering Opportunity:One of my objectives in 2018 is to pilot a Decentralized- Never Stop Marketing on a DAO platform. Let me know if you might like to learn about crypto-marketing, blockchain, and DAO….all at the same time.

More Decentralized AI start-ups. 

After the success of SingularityNet, (the ICO was pre-subscribed at $50mm and they sold over $200mm in 60 seconds or something like that), there will be more like it. Since money attracts money, we will see a lot of people leave high priced AI jobs at big tech firms like Google and Facebook in pursuit of billion dollar paydays for the next crypto-AI protocol. We will probably see 10 crypto AI ICOs that are at least $50mm.For more on decentralized AI, see my VB article here.

Ethereum is the Standard…or It’s Not

By now, we all know that CryptoKitties brought the Ethereum network to its knees. Even Vitalik knows, as he tweets a lot, that not much has really been accomplished. He’s also very aware of the challenges that he and the team face. I had the opportunity to spend a full day with Vitalik a few weeks back. Vlad Zamfir was also there for about 4 hours. I had the opportunity to listen to them and speak with them during that time.

Now, I’ve cautioned how I think the “Vitalik as Wunderkind” narrative is dangerous, but I have to say that I walked away very impressed. These two are very thoughtful, articulate, open-minded, and freaking brilliant. There are a ton of things that needed to be done (as I have outlined before), but these two are both smart and humble enough that they could do it.That said, there are a ton of issues with Ethereum and there is room for other, newer blockchains like NEM, QTUM, EOS tor AION to start closing the gap, if not overtake Ethereum.

I’ll say that if we see more than 100 projects built on any given one of those platforms, I think you may be seeing the emergence of a Ethereum Contender. If not, Ethereum is the winner.Note: I’m hoping to do a deeper dive on some of these other platforms in Q1.

Interoperability Protocols Will Remain Immature

I am rooting for these guys but I think it will be a while before this part works, which will increase load (and probably value of ETH for the near term– see below for next prediction on ETH). So players like  Polkadot, Cosmos (which calls itself the “Internet of Blockchains”) and new entrants like Lamden, Metronome are going to be quiet.For more on this sector, see this Venture Beat article.

More Crypto Valleys Beyond Zug

As you know, I lead a quarterly trip to “Crypto Valley” in Zug, Switzerland as part of the Crypto Explorers Association. The next one is January 29, which is sold out, but applications are open for the April trip. See the site for details.

Over the last few months, we’ve been approached by governments in places like Oman that want to import “crypto valley” to their geographies and use CryptoExplorers as a way of introducing themselves to the world. But, more important than that, they have studied what Zug has done to drive innovation and job creation and they want to do that themselves.

That tells me that governments in “tier 2” or “tier 3” locations see blockchain/crypto as a way to do a “leapfrog” in the way that Estonia, for example, did in the 1990s going straight to a “digital first” country. [For more on my experiences as an e-citizen of Estonia, see here from my trip 1.5 years ago]

They are going to try and become “blockchain/crypto-first locations.”

So prediction: I think we will see 2 or 3 new legitimate “crypto valleys” emerge in unexpected places. Not the Dubai, Singapore, Tel Aviv, Berlin thing. Rather, Bratislava, Florianoupolis, Panama City, and Muscat.

You Will Meet the Decentralized Marketing All-Star Team

The world will witness the launch of the next installment in the series on the intersection of blockchain/crypto and marketing.

Following up on December 2014’s “Blockchains in the Mainstream,” which featured 33 of the biggest names in the industry and The CMO Primer for the Age of Blockchains, which had forewords from the CMOs of Nasdaq and Dun and Bradstreet, in late Q1, you will get to read (drumroll please…)

The Decentralized Marketing Organization: How Crypto-Marketers Can Grow Token Value Through Enhanced Responsiveness to Rapidly-Evolving Community Needs will introduce you to the “Decentralized Marketing All-Star Team.”

These are some of the absolute key players in the crypto-marketing space including

–Amanda Johnson from Dash

–Eddy Azar from Bancor

–Thomas Schouten from Lisk

–Andrew Levine from Steem

–Bryan Doreiran from PIVX

–Domninik Zynis from Wings

–Jeremy Gardner from Augur

–Tatu K?rki from Aragon

–Amanda Gutterman from Consensys

–Jon Sanderson at Storj

–Adam Evers at Tierion

–Patrick Stanley from Blockstack

-and Hsin-Ju Chuang from Stellar (hopefully)

and a few others.

We are basically going to explore how blockchains not just affect marketing, but how the very structure of marketing itself could be decentralized to improve agility, responsiveness, and ability to deliver customer value.

This collaborative isn’t about promoting a given project, it is about making everyone in the industry better, so we can all increase the odds of bringing the decentralized future we all want and envision to the present as quickly as possible.

After all, that is why we are doing this, right?

Crypto Goes Mainstream Retail

3 of the top 10 retail brokers in the US will allow you to buy 1-5 cryptocurrencies directly from their websites, just as you do today with stocks or mutual funds. Coinbase will need to improve their infrastructure and execute their own plan for world domination (coming on blog in the next few days….stay tuned). Otherwise, they will start losing ground.

ICOs Go Mainstream

I think you will see the first legit ICOs take place on Indiegogo in February, or March at the latest. Over the course of the year, we will see 9 more for a total of 10 in 2018. (Here is their original announcement)

Reverse ICOs Will Intensify

Kik did it first and YouNow is about to do it via PROPS (full disclosure: client). I think we’ll see at least 15-2o more reverse ICOs. For more on the “reverse ICO,” see this article on Venture Beat. And here’s a job description for the Tokenization Consultant.

Regulation Won’t Kill Innovation

I’m cautiously optimistic that US authorities will be relatively lenient so as not to impeded innovation. But egregious ones will get shut down. ICOs using KYC/AML will be a given and solutions will have to scale. This is why I like PeerMountain (disclosure: advisor) and, in particular, their CEO, Jed, who REALLY gets this stuff AND can make it work with existing enterprise systems.

Bonus Prediction: We’ll also have an update of the Blockchain Marketing Technology Landscape and we hope to pilot at BlockchainMarTech Index on Prism and/or Melonport so you can track the projects in one place.

Final Prediction:

You thought 2017 was crazy? This crypto thing is just getting started. More crypto-fueled upheaval is going to come.

Happy New Year and thank you for reading.