2017 Predictions for the Middle-East. A taste/teaser.

2017 predictions for the Middle-East. A little taste/ teaser.

BELINDA METLITZKY SILBERT·MONDAY, JANUARY 9, 2017

The tiny territory of Israel will experience unprecedented growth even though the instability of the region will continue. The change of administration in the USA will ruffle many feathers in the region and will initially give Israel a much-needed boost in order to resist the anti-Zionist rhetoric that is so prevalent at the moment- especially in view of the fall-out from the clumsily worded recent UN resolution that effectively seeks to delegitimise Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem. 

Both Fatah and Hamas will feel the need to be seen to react to talk of moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem. However, Abbas will be feeling far more concerned than he conveys and he will not really want additional confrontation since both the West Bank and Gaza will be recipients of Israel’s wrath for any additional terrorist acts. The backlash from any provocation of Israel will be very stern and will cause significant setbacks to the Palestinian cause and loss of life. These setbacks will be more tangible than ever before as financial lifelines from both the USA and Israel will be throttled and UN funding will trickle to almost zero as a result of the decrease of American support of the United Nations and its reduction in funding to the organization.

Abbas and Haniyeh will have to find other nations to court and Abbas will find support in Algeria. This will anger Hamas and will increase tensions between their factions and sub-factions.

Looking to Lebanon, Hezbollah will become more daring in its rhetoric and some in the organisation will try to separate themselves even further from its Iranian masters...the very country that in essence birthed the orginal organisation. Hezbollah will suffer cracks in its fabric because Iranian support is vital, even though it has entrenched itself so firmly in the Lebanese psyche over the past few years so the part of the organisation that wants to present itself as Lebanese and as “saviours” of Lebanon will not triumph .

 Russia’s validation of Hezbollah is still problematic as is the historical connection of the Lebanese with their one-time Syrian “overlords”...the Syrian landscape has changed permanently and Hezbollah is not managing to fill the chasm that it would like to because of Western intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, Hezbollah now boasts that it is ready to take on Israel and these boasts may be tested in the near future, with disastrous results for Lebanon.

Israel’s alliances with Saudi Arabia; Jordan and Egypt will bear very significant fruit and the tiny state will stand its ground as a super-power in spite of its geographic dimensions.