In 2016 Hunters are Worth $2,503.47

I analyze data for work AND in my spare time. Get over it, that's what I enjoy doing. More and more frequently, I can find people to pay me to do it for them so I'm not doing it for free. But when I am not working on a specific project, I'll find a project that interests me to scratch that itch. Lately that have been stock market behavior, cosmic standard candles, or finding plagiarism using statistical models (for the 2 people that egregiously steal my work...).

The most recent geek-and-insomnia-induced creation comes from the 5-year national hunting and fishing data. I created a model that extrapolates how much each hunter will have expended while hunting in 2016. The model uses information back to 2001, and accounts for inflation, age redistribution and a number of other factors. I was amazed at the consistency of expenditures from across time and space. Standing there, facing the pure, horrifying precision, I came to realize the obviousness of the truth:

My bold prediction for the 2016 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife Associated Recreation is that each hunter will expend $2,503.47.

Later this year, once the data are analyzed and verified we'll see how close I really will get to being to the actual number. But this could mean that hunting expenditures at the national level would near $40 Billion.

Hunters expend $40 Billion a year, that's enough to pay the entire Yankee's roster for 170 years

That prediction may be incorrect. When you account for the the fact that much of the 2016 year, most of Americans were anticipating a potential-Clinton administration. As a result, there were quite a few NICS checks in the late spring and summer, many of which were guns that were, at that time, under implied threat of being made unavailable to the public or being re-categorized as Class III weapons. Another confounding factor is the stockpiling of ammunition. The optimists are shooting through their stockpile and the pessimists are continuing to build their stockpile. Either way, the purchasing of ammunition has changed. The days of picking up a few boxes of shells on your way out of town are gone, but the 10% federal excise tax on it is still paid on the purchase. There were a number of other factors influencing the sale of weapons, including the improved marketing to emerging female market, growing markets in higher end ammunition materials, and several nationally-covered events wherein guns were misused for unfortunate purposes.

Only time will tell if this prediction is accurate, but regardless of the magnitude of the change from years past, the economic impact of fishing, hunting, and shooting sports in undeniable.

The legal stuff- The views and ideas contained herein are my own and do not represent an official position of any agency, organizations, federations, committees, technical advisory groups, or boards that I am affiliated with. Use of trade names, companies, or specific products/services does not imply an endorsement by any governmental organization. 2673.702641.722554.02

Fun stuff- Lots of Easter Eggs in here in celebration of the holiday week, email me when you find them!

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