2016 Grade 12 year-end passes likely to plateau

Paul Samuelson and other experts in Economics; did not scream or warn us of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. They may have failed to predict this recession. Maybe this was not on their Job Descriptions. I’m joking. On a serious note, let us come back home. In our country, we continue to see a similar situation in our education world. A number of bold structures are subordinate to our Education Ministry, boasting experts of unquestionable and noble CVs. These experts are highly rewarded for their CVs and coherent influence they exert in the education world. These, do not wallow in abstraction, no; not at all. For records, we are not jealous for their fortunes.

How should we test the effectiveness of these structures? Peer journals? Standardizing Outcomes? Talk shows? Countless non-black documents? Defending their Bosses?

Much depends on the context, I guess.

Please allow me to explore another avenue. Where were these experts, when our 2015 year end Matric passes depreciated? They should have predicted and possibly warned us of this plunge. This, proactive measure would but not limited to; save these bodies a number of unnecessary responding affidavits.

I personally advise that, 2016 year end passes will sadly; downturn. When I first made this disclosure in public, one Educationist demanded I commit to a figure.

I said, it is in the sixties.

BY THE TIME FEES FALL-LOOKS LIKE GRADE 12s WOULD HAVE FALLEN ALSO

With this exercise, I am also proposing that the Matric percentage should stop being an end but be a means.

We need to identify flickers and therefore track drivers of the Grade 12 outcomes, in time. Is there a relationship between strikes and national passes? Any link between an increase in crime vs national passes? Is the populace life expectancy and health, a driver, indicator or catalyst to learner achieving?Systems of engagements in education, and not blame –games; need to be activated.

For an example, EC & KZN saw lost days due to but not limited to: unfavorable weather conditions, presenteeism and supply chain management issues.

On another note, Limpopo could not recover from the yesteryear’s supply chain management issues and as if that was not enough already, classes became room less. Over twenty-four schools are not conducive for lessons. This is bad for our grade 12 passes. Actually this is not negligible, if my memory serves me well; twenty five schools are almost parallel to two-year work of ASIDI.

Not long ago, the Accelerated School’s Infrastructure Development Initiative reported to have built about 30 schools in two years. A caring government intervened in Limpopo but it may seem that the response came a little too late. Time, actually contact time is ruthless. It cannot be stopped, once it is gone-it’s gone. Saturday, morning, afternoon and even away lessons can only but assist the loss. Even the Minister of Education can’t stop it. Stakes are high and all stakeholders want results! Even those demanding a fall of fees, want these results. While others may be sympathetic to troubled learners, it is just lip service.

FLICKERS

As always, organized school leadership is waiting for year–end. The Minister will show up to give a year-end report. After all, it is the Minister that report and be subjected to scrutiny over grade 12 achievements.

Are SGBs highly effective? Sanitary towels for needy learners was provided by our SGBs. Personally, I would have loved for that initiative to have come from SGBs-pity it is not and I have never heard any commendation by and from these bodies. Maybe SGBs should not be bothered up until there is a funding mishap, I guess. Let us not bother them either. Actually, let us spare these volunteers a moment.  I am studying learner achievement reports of Grade7, 11 and 12 (second quarter) and can safely say that a miracle needs to happen to overturn this waning.  Pure Mathematics is not being passed by our learners etc. I see even Life Orientation is low and this should be worrying to all parents. Life Orientation should be the messiah of them all!                                              Three, education asylum seekers from Limpopo continue to surface online and through school visits. Gauteng is scouted a lot for admissions. After all, it boast online presence. It can be accessed from any direction and NO passport is required to be admitted. Even if you from an ex-HOMELAND, online admission has capacity for you. This capacity seem to be agile or must I say, fragile. I would n’t want to see it re-crash. This may render this world class capacity redundant and see admissions back to OBE era.  We continue to see School Management Teams being summoned to Courts for misappropriation of public funds. This, turns schools into battle grounds as affidavits and response to these are exchange indefinitely. Sad to say, our schools are turned into Bollywood as the organogram tries to make-up for the absent members. Day–to day management of the school suffers. These aspects we discussed, did not begin to touch on the other RED FLAGS disturbing the classroom peace. I did not highlight organized labour’s increase activity and its impact to the learning business. 

It need to be emphasized that, the three mentioned provinces; greatly impact the final Matric percentage and they will unless meaning full interventions are put in place. People who are destined for NO-FEE HIGHER EDUCATION are likely not to taste it. That is, should it happen in our life time!

Dr Nico Cloete from Centre for higher education transformation said: “the poor do n’t even qualify to get into University. Of a matric class of 100 000-90% would not qualify for University.”

It should be business unusual for SGBs, SMT, Educators, Parents and Learners in our schools.

Otherwise, Grade 12 year end passes are sure to plateau.

 Lihleni Nsele aka Joseph

JHB:RSA 2016 ?