2016 Election Recap

A. Final Polling Numbers

Final RCP Polling Averages

• President Obama Job Approval: 52.9% approve; 44.4% disapprove (+8.5)
• Direction of Country: 31.2% right direction; 61.9% wrong track (-30.7)
• Approval of Obamacare: 39.2% favor; 48.8% oppose (-9.6)
• National Matchup, Clinton-Trump: 46.8% to 43.6% (Clinton +3.2)
• 4-Way Matchup: Clinton 45.5%; Trump 42.2%; Johnson 4.7%; Stein 1.9% (Clinton +3.3)
• Trump: Favorable 37.5%; Unfavorable 58.5% (-21.0)
• Clinton: Favorable 41.8%; Unfavorable 54.4% (-12.6)

B. Snapshot, Takeaways and Trends

1)    Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton with 279 electoral votes to Clinton’s 228, though three states are still outstanding. Clinton appears to have won the popular vote by a roughly 200,000 vote margin, but not all returns are final.

2)    The results defied most polling and analyst expectations; however, analysts were farther off than the polls. The Real Clear Politics average of national polls showed Trump down by an average of 3.3 percentage, and he is expected to lose the national vote somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0 percent. Most of the battleground states were close to the final RCP polling average as well, with the one notable exception being Wisconsin. There, Clinton led in the polling average by 6.5 points but lost by a point.

3)    For prominent election analysts, however, their predictions were off significantly. Larry Sabato, for example, had Clinton winning 322 electoral votes to Trump’s 216, a roughly 94 electoral vote swing. The Cook Political Report had Clinton taking 278 electoral votes to Trump’s 214 with 46 tossups – a 50 electoral vote swing. Finally, FiveThirtyEight had Clinton taking 302 electoral votes to Trump’s 235 – a 74 electoral vote swing.

4)    Trump's electoral strategy ultimately proved decisive on election day. Since entering the Republican primary last year, Trump's path forward for the nomination and general election always ran through the Rust Belt with its overwhelming white, working class electorate. Polling in those states show him over performing among his core constituencies with Clinton underperforming among key components of her coalition, including minorities (African Americans), youth and female voters.

5)    Upwards of 42 million Americans voted early (either absentee or in-person) for president. Early voters turned out in record numbers in key battleground states such as Florida, North Carolina and Nevada. Among subgroups of voters, early turnout was up sharply among Hispanics. As of the end of early voting on Thursday (November 3rd), five states with surging Hispanic populations — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada — had already cast ballots equivalent to over 50 percent of their total turnout from 2012, according to Catalist, a Democratic data firm. This greater turnout among Hispanics, however, proved to be inconsequential given Trump’s electoral strategy.

6)    In down-ballot elections, Republicans overperformed polling and analyst expectations and will maintain majorities in both the House and Senate in the 115th Congress. In the Senate, Democrats appear to have only unseated two Republicans – Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and Mark Kirk in Illinois. In the House, Democrats were only able to pick up a net of six seats despite projections anywhere between 10 to 20 seats. Several races remain too close to call.

7)    Overall, candidates and outside groups spent a total of $1.8 billion on Senate and House contests, according to data from the Campaign Finance Institute.  That figure actually represents a slight decline from the last campaign held concurrently with a presidential contest in 2012, when candidates and outside groups spent more than $1.9 billion. The decline is in line with a larger reduction in election spending this cycle.

8)    Senate races in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, however, broke the individual race spending record set in 2014. That year, both parties and outside groups spent $114 on the North Carolina Senate race between then-Senator Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis, who unseated her. This cycle, in Pennsylvania, total expenditures were over $162 million in the race between incumbent Republican Pat Toomey and Democratic challenger

C. The White House

Donald Trump fundamentally reshaped the political map on Election Day.  As it stands now, Trump won 279 electoral votes to Secretary Clinton’s 228. Trump won Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio Pennsylvania (the first Republican presidential candidate to win Pennsylvania since 1988), Wisconsin (the first Republican presidential candidate to win Wisconsin since 1984) and is currently leading in Arizona, and Michigan and in a dead heat New Hampshire — all three remain uncalled.

From the outset of the primary cycle earlier this year, Trump’s path to victory ran through the Rust Belt. His unorthodox views (by Republican standards) on a host of economic issues, most notably free trade, appealed directly to white, blue-collar voters comprising a significant amount of the electorate in a majority of the states throughout the region. These states include Iowa (93 percent of 2012 voters were white), New Hampshire (93 percent), Ohio (79 percent), Pennsylvania (78 percent) and Wisconsin (86 percent). While Trump did not significantly build on Mitt Romney’s turnout numbers among this population of voters, according to exit polls, he was able to consolidate their support, including in those areas long taken for granted by Democrats. 

Looking at the polls, Trump won working class whites without college degrees, his core constituency, by more than a two-to-one margin. Among white men, he won by 32 points and by 10 points among white women, a voting bloc that Republicans have traditionally taken but some prognosticated would defect from Trump. With independents, the long sought after swing voters, Trump edged Clinton by six points – 51 percent of male independents voted for Trump, while Clinton only won female independents by four points (47 to 43 percent). Geographically, Trump carried rural areas by 28 points and suburbs by five points, particularly states within the Rustbelt and the Midwest. Finally, consider that despite the ongoing narrative of discord in the Republican Party highlighted by prominent defections, 90 percent of Republicans that went to the polls voted for Trump.

Clinton, on the other hand, was unable to reassemble the coalition of minority, young and educated white voters that backed Obama in 2008 and 2012. According to exit polls, Clinton underperformed among young people (55% to Obama's 60%).  Among African Americans, Asians, and Latinos she dropped from Obama's margins.  Clinton took 88% among African Americans (Obama took 93%), 65% among Latinos (Obama took 71%) and 65% of Asian Americans (Obama took 73%).  And, the new "Clinton coalition" of suburban Republicans and women drawn to her banner over a backlash to Trump did not pan out either. 

One other interesting observation to note, as of current vote counts, the number of voters who cast ballots for candidates other than Clinton and Trump exceeds Trump’s winning margin — or lead, in races that have not yet been called — in many important states, including Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This is certainly not to say that the third-party candidates, most notably Gary Johnson, handed Trump the election. Not all of them would have voted for Clinton had they been forced to choose only between her and Trump. And some might not have voted at all. Far more Democrats in Florida in 2000, for example, voted for George W. Bush than voted for Ralph Nader.

Taking all of this together, there is general consensus as to how Trump defied expectations and came out on top on November 8th. Despite the narrative of a “blue wall” blocking his path to victory, geography and math of the Electoral College ended up working to Trump’s benefit. The white working-class voters who strongly backed Trump are overrepresented in Electoral College math, while Clinton’s non-white and urban backers were largely concentrated into a few key states. Worth remembering in this equation is that Trump was ultimately able to turn out his base in a greater proportion than Clinton, or perhaps they were going to turn out anyway to cast a protest vote against the status quo in Washington. For Clinton, she faced the near impossible task of winning a third Democratic term (a feat not accomplished since FDR) as the candidate of the status quo in a “change election.”

D. Congressional Elections

Senate

Heading into election day, the Republicans held a 54-46 seat advantage in the Senate. Democrats needed to pick-up a net of four seats to flip control of the chamber, provided Clinton won, or five if she did not. With Wisconsin and Illinois long considered Democratic takeovers, incumbent Republican seats in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina were the focal points of the election cycle. Moving through 2016, Missouri increasingly became a competitive contest with Democrats fielding perhaps their best challenger in Jason Kander. Florida was also targeted as a potential takeover; however, Marco Rubio’s decision to seek reelection significantly bolstered Republican odds to retain the seat. For the GOP, the open seat in Nevada, being vacated by longtime Democratic leader Harry Reid, was the only viable pick-up opportunity. 

Like the presidential election, GOP Senate candidates defied polling and general expectations on election day. Incumbent Republican Senators Ron Johnson (WI), Richard Burr (NC), Pat Toomey (PA), John McCain (AZ), and Roy Blunt (MO) all won tough reelections. Democrats two Republican pick-ups so far are seats in Illinois where Rep. Tammy Duckworth defeating incumbent Republican Sen. Mark Kirk, and New Hampshire, where Governor Maggie Hassan narrowly defeated Sen. Kelly Ayotte. For Republicans, they fell flat in their lone pickup opportunity in Nevada with Catherine Cortez Masto defeating Rep. Joe Heck to replace outgoing Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid.  The open seat in Louisiana is also headed to a runoff, but State Treasurer John Kennedy is a safe bet to retain the seat being vacated by Republican Senator David Vitter, who unsuccessfully ran for governor. In total, the 115th Congress will have a Republican-controlled Senate with either 52/53 Republicans to 48/47 Democrats.

A closer look at the races:

Florida: Though incumbent Marco Rubio initially declined to seek reelection choosing instead to run for president, he was ultimately persuaded by friends and party insiders to defend his seat given the challenging Senate election map for the GOP and the lack of a consensus replacement candidate. On election night, he did not disappoint defeating Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy by an eight-point margin (52-44 percent). It would have taken a comfortable Clinton victory to tip the scales of the race in favor Murphy, the lesser-known challenger, who based a large part of his strategy on tying Rubio to Trump. Also of note in Florida, voters sent 10 new members to the U.S. House, including former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, who will go to Washington in his first victory as a Democrat. Incumbent Republican U.S. Reps. David Jolly and John Mica were voted out of office after their districts were redrawn with more Democrats.

Indiana: In what many thought would be a competitive race, at least early on in the election cycle, Republican Congressman Todd Young handedly dispatched Democratic challenger Evan Bayh by a 10 point margin (52-42 percent). Democrats long saw Bayh’s candidacy as the key to taking the open seat that had been held by Republican Dan Coats given Bayh’s name recognition (was the former governor) and financial advantage (started race with a large cash on hand advantage), but sustained attacks from Republicans portraying Bayh as an out-of-touch outsider eroded his lead moving into election day giving Young all of the momentum.

Missouri: In what emerged as one of the most contested seats towards the back-end of the election, incumbent Republican Roy Blunt staved off arguably the most well-rounded, Democratic Senate candidate this election cycle in Jason Kander. While the degree of ticket splitting between Trump and Blunt was well-documented moving into election day (Trump polling double digits ahead of Blunt), Trump’s 19-point victory undoubtedly proved to be the decisive factor underlying Blunt’s victory.

Nevada:  The lone pickup opportunity for the GOP on election night, Rep. Joe Heck, a Republican, was unable to defeat Catherine Cortez Masto for outgoing Senate Democrat leader Harry Reid. All told, outside groups spent over $90 million to try and sway Nevada voters on the Senate race; with the two candidates included, nearly $110 million in spending worked out to an eye-popping $84 per Nevada voter. The race was extremely close down the stretch, as Cortez Masto became better known and the presidential race kept weighing more and more on Heck. But ultimately, the Senate race was called before the presidential race as Cortez Masto pulled away with help from powerful Democratic surrogates.

New Hampshire: In yet another competitive election for a Republican Senator in a key presidential swing state, Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte by under 1,000 votes. The degree of ticket splitting in this race was minimal with Ayotte narrowly outperforming Trump, who trails Clinton by just under 500 votes. So, it appears that while Ayotte’s decision to distance her campaign from that of Trump’s did not hurt her election odds (unlike Heck in Nevada), it was not enough to convince New Hampshire voters to send her back to Washington.

North Carolina: Incumbent Republican Richard Burr, who was considered one of the more vulnerable Republican Senators alongside Blunt, Toomey and Ayotte, rode a Republican wave in the state that also carried Donald Trump to victory (Burr outperformed Trump by nearly 40,000 votes). One interesting observation is that both Burr and Trump appear to have elevated their race to the national scale and distance themselves from local political controversies that ultimately derailed incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory’s reelection bid. McCrory underperformed Burr by nearly 95,000 votes and Trump by 63,000 votes.

Pennsylvania: In a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey survived a challenge from Katie McGinty, a formal environmental adviser under Bill Clinton, winning by over 100,000 votes (2 percent). Total spending on the race ($162 million by both parties) set a record surpassing the $114 million spent in the contest between then-Senator Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis in 2014. McGinty was perhaps undone by her central campaign strategy of trying to tie Toomey to Donald Trump, who ended up carrying the state over Hillary Clinton. While Toomey only underperformed Trump by some 19,000 votes, McGinty was farther off pace with Clinton by over 50,000 votes.

Wisconsin: Wisconsin had not voted for a Republican president since 1984, but Badger State voters backed Donald Trump, and perhaps more surprisingly, incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson on election day. Most pundits had forecasted Johnson losing race, and polls had consistently shown his Democratic challenger, Russ Feingold, whom Johnson defeated in 2010, leading by double digits for most of the year. However, in a sign of the outcome, those polls narrowed heading into November 8th, and both Johnson and Trump won behind low turnout for Clinton and Feingold. History was also on Johnson’s side. No Senate candidate has gone on to defeat the person that defeated them in the prior election since 1934.

House

The GOP held a 59-seat advantage (247-188) in the House heading into November 8th. Having to win a net of 30 seats, Democrats odds of taking control of the chamber for the first time since 2010 were low and rested primarily on a wave election. While numerous projections pegged Republicans losing between 10 and 15 eats, they only ended up losing six seats. Only several seats remain in doubt – one in California (Democratic incumbent and House India Caucus Co-Chair Ami Bera has a slight lead in his race, but it is too close to call) and two in Louisiana which hold run-offs in December but are expected to stay Republican. The GOP will head into the 115th Congress with approximately a 238 – 193 lead over Democrats.