5 Predictions for Retailers on Black Friday

It's almost here! Thanksgiving weekend. Black Friday. Cyber Monday. What should retailers and shoppers alike expect this year?

1. Overall Growth

This year holiday shopping is expected to total $617 Billion, up 4.1% YoY. This is being driven by increased consumer confidence. Prices for gas are at multi-year lows, leaving some extra cash in the wallet. Also, unemployment numbers continue to decline and are the best they've been since the recession at about 5.9% as of September.

2. Digital

39% of shoppers say they don't plan to go into stores on Black Friday. How can you blame them? Have you seen the crazy videos like this one of fight in Walmart over a TV? Consumers will take advantage of deals from the comfort of their homes. According to ComScore, eCommerce on Black Friday alone accounted for over $1.2 Billion last year. The first ever shopping day over $1B. I predict that this year could easily see over $1.5 Billion. Many companies, like Sears, are offering a buy online, pick-up in store option. This is great for people who want to shop from home, avoid the crowds, and go pick up their items in the following week.

3. Mobile

According to IBM's Smarter Commerce Report on Black Friday, Mobile (including smartphones and tablets) accounted for 39.7% of all traffic and 21.8% of total online sales. This trend will continue to rise upwards as a result of increased consumer comfort with mobile devices as well as more consumers being connected via smart devices. Compound this with the 23% increase in downloaded retail apps, and savvy retailers using native Push notifications, this could be the year that more than 50% of all shopping traffic is mobile.

4. Rolling Offers

In order to improve customer engagement and reduce operational challenges, leading retailers will roll out various new offers through the shopping weekend. This will hold true both in store and online. This will also help retailers to reduce the number of last-minute orders which stores had a hard time fulfilling last year due to both weather delays and capacity issues with FedEx and UPS. The retailers who do this the best will maintain excitement and gain wallet-share from their customers.

5. Millennials

According to the National Retail Federation, 79.4% of those 18-24 years old plan to shop during the holiday weekend - the highest of any age group. “For younger shoppers, shopping on Thanksgiving and Black Friday is as much a social experience as it is a buying mission,” said Prosper’s Principal Analyst Pam Goodfellow. “While these shoppers may not have the biggest holiday budgets or the longest shopping lists, they still enjoy the ‘tradition’ of heading out with friends and family on two of retail’s most exciting shopping days.”

It will be interesting to see how this year's shopping season pans out, and what retailers do to continue to drive sales without sacrificing margin.

What do you expect? Let me know in the comments!