RISK - When will we learn the lesson?
Soumitra Sen
Co-Founder - Intelligent Insights (Intin) | Advisory Board Member - CMO Council
Vladimir Putin hopes we have learnt "a lesson".
Thanks to editorial policy, losses in translation and heat of the moment, I am not sure what he was referring to exactly on TV, but the words stuck. What is THE LESSON from the #MH17 tragedy?
There are hours of reporting, reams of analysis and tons of insinuations to come, but none of it will take away from the fact that MH17 was in a very wrong place at a very wrong time - 2 aircraft shot down in previous 3 days in the Donetsk area! Many airlines have now put out notices that they will avoid the Ukrainian airspace. BUT why were they overflying a conflict zone in the first place...with the risk increasing daily? Because it is the "usual route"? It is the "shortest" distance? Because IATA deemed it safe…at 33,000 feet, the risk was "acceptable" till yesterday? Not any more, says a terrible cost of almost 300 lives….
Very often, decisions on RISK start, and end, with the "probability" of an event occurring. And more often than not, the probability is determined by the past, and by business necessities. "Oh, the chances of it happening are less than 1% …never happened before!", is the comforting cushion. Not many look at the IMPLICATIONS, if the event were to actually transpire (except the Insurance industry, I guess).
And that's the HARD LESSON - Probability is nothing, without the proper understanding of implications if something were to actually happen. If that "1% risk" leads to potential catastrophe, we need to step back one and give the choice one long hard look. The right decision could save lives at most…for a few dollars more. Before it is too late.
This may or may not be the "lesson" Mr. Putin was referring to. But for managers, leaders, decision-makers …all of us, it is a very tough moment. And a LEARNING MOMENT - to step back and take a look at what that "1%" could mean. The implications could far outweigh simplistic, fast changing probabilities in todays interconnected and increasingly volatile world.
My prayers are with the families and loved ones of Malaysia Airlines MH17 passengers.
Рroject manager on engineering systems
10 年ГИП
The risk may have been weighted, and yet the decision to continue to fly the same route would have remained the same. This tragedy couldn't truly have been prevented, as many airlines have continued to fly over war zones that are even more treacherous than the one that exists in Ukraine at the moment - on a daily basis - and yet nothing has happened to these flights. Malaysian Flight MH17 happened to be the one out of at least fifteen planes that would have flown over the same area this week (based on the announcement that 15 out of 16 Asian Pacific airlines use the same route). Nothing happened to those other 14 planes. So, going forward, should the CAA now stipulate a policy whereby - whenever there's a war - such as those that have been raging in the Middle East for a few years' now, that airlines don't fly in the airspace of those countries? The probability of being shot down in a plane is less than the probability of being struck down by a car and I believe more people die on the roads globally, every day, than in plane crashes - what more could car-makers do to reduce the probability further, other than to stop making cars? The fact about risk management is, there are certain risks that simply can't be prevented, in which case the only mitigation is indeed transference to the insurers. Thoughts and prayers with the families; a traumatic and life-changing event for them.
Homo sum humani a me nihil alienum puto.
10 年Why companies do not routinely move to mitigate certain risks is hard to understand. Sometimes they are asleep at the wheel and, in others, they walk trance-like into buzz saws. I suppose this happens because some executives are incompetent and others get a peculiar thrill from tempting fate. I have occasionally advised businesses in advance of the near certainty of disaster and watched them ignore the warnings and suffer catastrophe. They may even agree that the risks are unacceptable and, yet, not change course. My feeling is that CEO's who are disinclined to jump off the tracks before the train hits them need to remove themselves from the decision-making and delegate the authority to make change to somebody else.
MARKETING MANAGER at OPSI INDUSTRIES
10 年Radha Krishna nair