Apple's Quiet Advantage: Squawk Alley Buzz

Tim Cook at WWDC 2014. Andy Ihnatko via Flickr

Here's what's on my radar this morning as I commute in to the New York Stock Exchange for Squawk Alley on CNBC:

I said on air yesterday that the clock has run out for Google on figuring out its post-smartphone growth strategy – Google I/O made it clear that the company has placed multiple bets in wearables (Android Wear), cars (Android Auto) and homes (Android TV), to name a few.

Why the dramatic language? Well, Google has taken stabs at some of these areas before, without real success. It's becoming clear that Google Glass is not going to become a mainstream hit anytime soon; Google TV flopped; and the Nexus Q music streaming device, which was supposed to be made in America, was scrapped before it even went on sale. None of this has hurt Google much. One of the benefits of being a huge, smart, enormously profitable company is that you can afford to make mistakes. What does hurt, however, is when a rival company sneaks up and succeeds in areas where you've been noodling around to little avail. And there's a real chance that could happen this year.

The rival in question, of course, is Apple.

Apple's Quiet Advantage

At WWDC we saw Apple stage an aggressive push into all the areas Google highlighted. Though Apple didn't announce a watch, it dropped a hint the size of Cupertino with HealthKit and the Health app. iOS in the Car didn't get a lot of keynote time, but it got attention at the conference itself. And HomeKit seeks to position the iPhone as a remote control for the home, with a powerful list of early partners.

Here's why Apple is a major threat to Google's post-smartphone ambitions, despite Android's massive market share: iOS has more affluent customers who are more inclined to buy things with their phones. Not only that, but the platform is more secure – which means it's less likely that a hacker will be able to take control of an iPhone and steal the digital keys to a home. If I were a home appliance or car company, I want to work with Apple more than Google because I want access to Apple's elite customer base. Couple that with Apple's apparent willingness to exercise less rigid control over its software, and you have a pretty promising partner. (We'll have to see how far Apple takes its promised openness.)

Google's Unrivaled Strength

Google, meanwhile, has its own strengths. The Android operating system has achieved mind-boggling scale and penetration in the developed world, and in many emerging markets. With Android One, the smartphone reference design program the company unveiled at Google I/O, that penetration is likely to accelerate. That's tough news for Microsoft and BlackBerry, which hope to slip under the radar in a few targeted emerging economies and gain some smartphone share. Their road to recovery gets harder now.

There are, of course, many areas where Android is stronger than Apple. Free apps targeting the mass market (think Facebook, Twitter) have to pay particular attention to Android, and the platform's openness from day one has made it the leader in creative interfaces and custom features.

So who will win the next round? I think it comes down to who gets the right device on their platform first. (Shocker.) Apple has the advantage of focus, and an immediate marketing lift to whatever it does; there will be no brand confusion involved with "which iOS watch should I buy," because there'll be only one. For that reason, I give Apple the advantage in wearables.

The answer, though, could be no one. That's who won the TV wars last round, after all.

For more, tune in to CNBC's Squawk Alley at 8 a.m. PT / 11 a.m. ET