To Shape the Future, Learn from the Past

There’s nothing new under the sun when it comes to innovation. To be better at shaping the future, we should first look to the past.

I recently spent a week commuting to work in an electric hybrid Cadillac ELR. The overall driving experience was amazing: piloting an intriguing brew of sublime flying carpet-ness and Millennium Falcon techno-zoom, I went over 170 miles and burned one gallon of gas, the rest of my energy usage coming from a wall socket. It felt like a whole new kind of car.

Or not? Driving this Cadillac also made me reflect on the history of the hybrid automobile, in particular the legacy of the great design engineer Ferdinand Porsche. Known today for the VW Beetle and his eponymous line of sports cars, Porsche began his engineering career in the 1890's and soon created an array of truly pioneering electric and hybrid car designs. Among other achievements, he was responsible for:

• the Semper Vivus hybrid of 1900, which used two gasoline engines to spin electric generators, which charged batteries and powered two front-wheel electric motors.
  
• the 1901 Mixte, a clever gasoline-powered design with an electric transmission. This was a smooth and powerful combination, with no "range anxiety".
  
• a range of elegant, hushed, pure electric cars, which in 1905 were the only autos allowed access to the fashionable Prater district in Vienna.
  
• a fleet of 54 electric taxis for Berliner Automobil-Droschken AG. These had a daily range of 147 miles using a battery pack which could be swapped out in just four minutes—100 years before Better Place failed trying to accomplish a similar goal.

In their day, each of these represented a significant breakthrough. To give you a better sense of what a technological tour de force Porsche's electric cars were, here’s a video of a recent recreation of the Semper Vivus:

If he were around today, Ferdinand Porsche would find Cadillac’s technical architecture very familiar—after all, he imagined much of the future I experienced commuting in the ELR. And therein lies an uncomfortable question for all of us who love creating cutting-edge innovations: why has so much of Porsche's foundational work on electric cars been largely forgotten by history?

The answer is that superior technology alone does not drive success. If it did, we’d be knee-deep in better mousetraps. To have an impact in the world, a progressive technology must create compelling experiences for real people and be supported by a viable business model. In fact, Porsche’s electric cars met only one of these criteria: their superior technology made them glamorous objects of desire for wealthy Viennese; they were very much the Tesla S of their day. But for all of these triumphs of design engineering, Porsche’s efforts were ultimately undone by the combination of an unsustainable business model and a lack of ubiquitous electric charging points (still a challenge today). History shows us that a balanced cocktail of technology, business, and culture is the recipe for innovation success, and if any of those ingredients is missing, the endeavor will fail.

Wise innovators are adept at learning from the tuition-free school of historical precedent. That world-changing idea you have? Someone else thought about it decades ago, or is working on right now. And because you get paid for the execution of your idea, and not for the merit of that idea itself, any insight which increases your odds of success is near priceless. Even in the rare case that you’re working with a technology the world has never seen before, what can history say about the immutable human needs, wants, and behaviors your offering will help or hinder? Do the research. Lessons rooted in the trials and tribulations of your forebears can only turbocharge your own progress.

As I look at this electric fire engine designed by Ferdinand Porsche over 100 years ago, I ponder what (if anything) we'll be driving 20, 50, or 100 years from now. Who will discover the best balance of business viability, innovative technology, and a compelling human experience? Honestly, I won't venture whether we’ll be riding in cars powered by electricity, gasoline, hydrogen, or wound-up rubber bands. But I will state most definitively that the clues to the winning future transportation paradigms will be found in the history of failures and triumphs of days past.

And the same goes for whatever domain you’re working in. What could you learn about the future, today?

Photos: Cadillac, Porsche