Go long on Twitter, very long

After Twitter's results last week, some analysts took a dim view of what appeared to be a reduced growth rate for twitter, coupled with declining engagement. Twitter admitted as much in its reporting,and the stock was hammered. Re/Code suggested Twitter also faced a user retention problem.

Two weeks ago, I argued that Twitter was a medium that defies boredom. And Bilal Zuberi of Lux Capital made a cogent case that "Twitter is eating the world".

My take: Stay long on Twitter, it is a unique platform. And it's the single best platform that bridges gap between personal communication and broadcast media. It’s the best form of tribal communication, letting you to dip into shifting groups of overlapping interests. And it's full of really smart people, you might otherwise find hard to access.

Caveat: I’m not making a stock recommendation to buy Twitter. If you are interested, please speak to real stock advisor. This is a comment on my view of Twitter. My company, PeerIndex, builds predictive models of user behaviour from Twitter, amongst other things.

Why go long?

For one reason: Twitter is where you can connect with smart, influential people on the things you care about. And when you measure by that yardstick, things look so much better.

All the smart people

One of my first jobs was as tech correspondent of The Economist. That newspaper didn't have the reach of, say, a tabloid or a news network, but basically it reached the smart people. And its influence was enormous.

Twitter is the place which the largest number of the smartest most capable people in the world have chosen to discuss stuff in public. There might be larger numbers of people on Facebook or LinkedIn, but the nature of the Twitter follow and discovery model makes it the place where you can tune into condensed matter physicists, human rights lawyers, celebrity photographers, product managers of your favourite MMORPG, or anyone who matches your definition of important. (There are obviously specialist channels, like ResearchGate for scientists, which go deeper in specific communities than Twitter, but they don't cross interests the way Twitter does.)

The weight of smart people - who present their Twitter handle with the same or greater frequency as they present an email address - is like a juggernaut that will carry Twitter forward.

Measure by the right yardstick

When you bear the weight of this influence in mind, you can evaluate Twitter in new ways. Marketers are transfixed by reach. And TV, retargeting and Facebook do a fantastic job of getting reach. Facebook and retargeting are remarkable in providing that reach with stronger contextual targeting. (LinkedIn is also no slouch in this department).

But because people relevant to what you care about hang out on Twitter - and are addressable conversationally, this is the place you can reach them. CEOs literally do look at their @ messages, and those who don't today will do soon.

As an example, Microsoft (and I just choose Microsoft because it is a well-known brand, I am not picking on them for any other reason.)

• On twitter, Microsoft has dozens of channels. But more importantly, thousands of Microsoft employees are on Twitter, directly accessible to potential customers and partners. It starts at the top with @satyanadella, but includes the likes of @zephoria (a Microsoft researcher), @scottgu (a product manager) and @markrussinovich (who works on the Azure cloud range).

• On Facebook, Microsoft’s UK presence pushes out quizzes, competition and drive-time banter.

Which presence weighs heavier? The Twitter one or the Facebook one? If you were a customer, what would you want to do? Follow the product manager for the product you use, or answer a quiz about how the Kinect fits into your New Year’s Resolution?

Companies are learning, slowly

Companies are starting to work out what to do, it always takes time. When I first sold online advertising (banner adverts in 1995), I sometimes received the ads by FAX. (Yes, a 640 by 48 gif came on a scratchy 72dpi Fax). It takes companies time to work out how to work a medium well. But today, they get the Internet and they get mobile - and much to our delight as their customers.

Twitter is weird and ground breaking. Figuring it out will take time. The traditional tool of a marketers armoury, the competition, (“Retweet to win”, “Freebie Friday”) results in low quality, low-engagement audiences. Controlled, filtered posts die on the vine. Spontanteity and conversation wins.

Working twitter well requires experience and organisational change so people are only starting to work out how to do twitter well. I’ll return to this in a future blog post.

Twitter has had dips before

Don’t forget in early 2010, Twitter had ‘fallen out of favour’, according to Nielsen.

Any new technology faces a roller coaster ride of ups and downs. Twitter will face peaks of inflated expectations and troughs of disillusionment. But ultimately the momentum of the network and the nodes in it will carry it forward.

It's like the Internet

A lot of things are reminding me of the early Internet right now. Bitcoin is one. Twitter is another. Yes, it is controlled by a single company, and of course faces the risks of company policy changing. But anyone can join the network and discover the resources on the network. And yes, that can sometimes make it confusing. As confusing as the early pre-Web internet. But the Web didn't end up too badly in the end, did it?

You can follow me on Twitter here.