The Princeton Facebook Study is Missing Something Obvious

There is a fascinating report coming out of Princeton University about Facebook losing 80% of its users by 2017. I gave it a read, and here is what I think they're missing:

I look at social media like bars and clubs. See, in your teens and early 20's its your job to get out and try every new bar, club, and thing that's out there. By the time you turn 30-35, you've probably settled down into a relationship, and you and your better half have found 3-4 places that you really love. So if you look at the habits of a 22-year-old: dozens, maybe hundreds of new places every year. The habits of a 35-year-old: They're going to their favorite spots over and over again.

This is exactly how I see Facebook, and social networks as a whole, playing out. I still haven't really nailed down the exact age, but I've been looking at VaynerMedia's own data and at this point my intuition is that everybody 32 and older who is currently on Facebook is going to be staying there for a lot longer than most people think. It's a much bigger push than the Princeton team realizes to get the average 45-year-old female and her entire social graph to switch over to an entirely new network. Facebook has the advantage of mapping this entire dynamic, and I think that the shift is going to be a lot slower, if it even happens at all.

So I'm sure there is plenty of data to show that the kids are shifting around. It makes a ton of sense. At that age, you're supposed to try out the Snapchats, and the Vines, and the Whispers of the world. However I'm not so sold that the people who are set in the habits will be so quick to move.

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If you're feeling me on what I said here, it would mean a ton to me for you to share this with your LinkedIn contacts. If not, drop me a comment and tell me why!