The continued Myspacing of Facebook
WhatsApp is now a larger messenger service than Facebook. Snapchat is where teens want to hang out. Pinterest lives for visuals. Mobile is where we play casual games. AppStore and GooglePlay are now the preferred app delivery platforms in many market. LinkedIn dominates for one social network use case. Polyvore for fashion. Twitter is the best place for breaking news and public debate. It is the Great Unbundling.
Facebook is an amazing achievement. But is it being MySpaced?
What happened to MySpace?
MySpace was the number one social network in the world, and the first to pass the 100m member threshold. This at the time was huge, but today more than a dozen person-centric apps can lay claim to similar honours. As MySpace's growth slowed relative to Facebook, the company felt compelled to add more garish features and a dizzying array of ad types to drive its business forward. Compared to the then more utilitarian Facebook (the best place to find, connect and keep up with contacts), MySpace was Sunset Strip crossed with the worst mall in the world. Facebook eviscerated Myspace.
What would MySpacing mean to Facebook?
Let's get our definitions straight. Let's call 'Hard MySpacing' what happened to MySpace and to Bebo. Those firms literally disappeared off the map, consumers left the platform. The businesses were sold and resold for nothing. And although MySpace is still a top 100 site, it's irrelevant.
"Soft MySpacing" would mean a decline in the relative centricity of the product to the consumer's life. There might be other assets (audience, platform) that can create an interesting and even huge business. But Facebook feels a big 'meh' the way MySpace feels to most of us today.
The question is: hard MySpacing, soft MySpacing or something else.
What did Facebook do right versus MySpace?
In 2011, the super-smart Ben Bajarin wrote an essay: "Could What Happen to Facebook happen to Myspace?". It was one of the better assessments of the topic. It is worth reading the full article. But the sum of it is:
- MySpace bombarded us with rubbish ads, as their growth rate slowed. Facebook's monetisation drives relevant ads.
- MySpace failed to innovate beyond a space on the Web. Facebook continually innovates.
- Sunk costs - users won't switch to alternative networks, it's too much hassle to replicate your social graph. Facebook has lock-in.
What is happening to Facebook is more about innovation and consumer preference.
- Relative to Facebook, others in the market are innovating fast. LinkedIn is the best place for professional networkingl Facebook (and companies built on its graph, like BranchOut) are going nowhere here. For person-to-person messaging, WhatsApp, Line, WeChat dominate in respective markets - and are increasingly becoming app delivery platforms. For casual gaming, CandyCrush, Clash of Clans, Angry Birds and others live on Android and iOS.
- Facebook is having to put loads of ads in front of us. See this example of their targeting. It may be better than MySpace but my expectations are much higher, and this isn't won't retain consumer loyalty. At the same time, other forms of advertising are working for consumers: re-targeting, native advertising and 'Oreo moments' or influence marketing.
- Facebook's closed wall seems quaint. Brands, in particular, do not need Facebook pages as much, especially when presented with more open alternatives like Twitter (in particular) but also Pinterest, Tumblr and others.
- The sunk costs argument which was so compelling in 2011 doesn't seem so important. It didn't stop us getting on Twitter, WhatsApp, Viber and anything else. Two things: First, the phone carries a social network with it. SnapChat and Viber don't need Facebook's graph to get a relevant graph - the people in my phone. Second, apps are getting better at getting us to sign-up. They give us choices other than Facebook to add a social layer to our app.
It's not all bad
Facebook is still the number one choice for social log-in. It's social graph is the biggest and most available. And it's foray into retargeting appears to be making difference to revenue.
The company's transformation to mobile is nothing short of stellar.
It has tons of cash. Perhaps not enough for Evan Spiegel, but enough to bring in innovation where it counts. And let's not forget that Google, Cisco and Apple have all acquired assets that now seem core and deeply strategic to help refresh and revise those businesses. So Facebook could yet pull that off.
A soft Myspacing
All of these things guarantee an outcome different to a strict hard MySpacing. My best sense is that there is a soft MySpacification going on, and particularly around consumer engagement in key segments and use cases. Teens moving to SnapChat, WhatsApp & Instagram (a facebook property). Mobile OS winning for app distribution. Regional plays winning in China, Korea and Japan.
Facebook faces competition we didn't expect new entrants, but also Android, iOs and Amazon). But Facebook has some gorgeous assets it can still make use of - social login and tracking pixels all over the web, a dense graph and a ton of eyeballs. And several thousand smart people.
What do you think? Hard, soft or something altogether different to MySpacing?
Professional Photographer
10 年I have to jump in on this subject as I feel overall a few online social media sites are growing at rapid rates that it's becoming more of a numbers game (people & finances) than working on better content and listening to what the users want/need. I have to agree with Brian Bushner. Myspace lost it for me as I started having problems with the UI of my profile. It (Myspace) started to get "messy" in navigating throughout the site and just got to glitzy and gimmicky for me. FaceBook was simple and straightforward which I liked very much at first after the Myspace experience. I also tried Tribe social media site, but it was more towards a "tribe size" of people from Burning Man, spiritual souls, etc. I liked it but people weren't being active on this site and FaceBook was gaining new followers. I'm a BIG believer in progression in all aspects. Social media sites have a great challenge in retaining their customers and profits. I think the issue with FB in the last few years is that it's pretty locked in and limited in using the site. Privacy issues will be a stickler for many. Myself included, especially being a photographer! I read that someone said FB will never go away. Just like bread and butter. It's a common ingredient but there are other brands out there that will gain the interests of consumers. If nothing progresses with any product, people move on to find something else that works for them. FB may have the market but it's losing it's direction. And I feel people are wanting better quality content. Others like to stay where they are and are comfortable with having a platform to share information.. these are possibly the "regulars" that FB has for customer retention. A comfort zone for both FB and it's users.
Co-Founder @Synchronicity.co, Inc. & BOS
10 年The Blog roll platform is not scaleable. Can't wait for 4-D communications medium.
Strategy Director - Group
10 年Excellent, balanced article, Azeem. A lot of the times I find these "peer into the near future" articles totally polarising (e.g. there's a lot of stuff going around now saying bizarrely that the iPhone has lost the war with Android). This wasn't one of them: a good fact-based analysis.
Lead Instructor: Firearms | Emergency Medical | Active Shooter
10 年thanks for the blog share! social media has a big contribution with us right Azeem Azhar
Data Science Consultant, Author, and certified Mentor in Data Science and Data Analytics
10 年Yes, FB is great indeed. But it will never be as useful as LinkedIn, nor as easy to use as Twitter. It has a good niche, but it still hasn't produced any great data products that can keep its users coming back. It still relies on the fact that people want to keep in touch with the people they care about. Once this motivator / need is addressed by a competitor in a way that is easier or more rewarding (or perhaps both), FB will be the next MySpace. Don't get me wrong, I like FB and log in to it regularly. Still, I don't see much of a future to it, if it continues functioning on the same pattern.